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GECAFS DSS Inaugural Workshop Jan 11, 2005

GECAFS DSS Inaugural Workshop Jan 11, 2005. Steve Sonka University of Illinois. Agenda. Philosophy Demonstration A Case Study Results, Effects, and Lessons. Philosophy (1). Factors in the “external environment” Government policies Technology Biogeophysical

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GECAFS DSS Inaugural Workshop Jan 11, 2005

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  1. GECAFS DSS Inaugural WorkshopJan 11, 2005 Steve Sonka University of Illinois

  2. Agenda • Philosophy • Demonstration • A Case Study • Results, • Effects, and • Lessons

  3. Philosophy (1) • Factors in the “external environment” • Government policies • Technology • Biogeophysical • Human decision making processes are challenged when decisions involve • Time lags (between decision and outcome) • Uncertainty • Causal ambiguity

  4. Philosophy (2) • Strategic versus operating choices, • Climate versus weather • Operating choices • Routine • DSS’s enhance • Strategic choices • Humans & DSS’s tend to struggle • Effective DSS’s for strategic choice • As much to generate better questions • As to provide answers

  5. Philosophy (3)Decisions, Decisions, Decisions • DSS’s inform, don’t make decisions • Decision will come from some group process • DSS not likely to be “used” by decision maker • Credibility must be earned, but not by use • Decision maker(s) won’t be able to give enough attention • Decision makers • Can describe problems/issues/concern • DSS developer is responsible for design

  6. Visualization Principles:Tufte • Escape the Flatland (of 2 dimensions) • Color • Compared to what ? • Time as the 4th dimension • Macro / micro perspectives

  7. The Case Study • Client • Illinois Soybean Program Operating Board • NGO • Mission components • Market development • Research • Charge: Help us better anticipate the future global need for protein • Longer term perspective • Enhance commonality of perspective • Improve communication across sector

  8. The Dynamics of Protein and Malnutrition • Charge from soybean industry leaders: Help us better anticipate the future global need for protein • Longer term • Commonality of perspective • Accurate, science-based methods

  9. The Protein Consumption Dynamics (PCD) Model • The PCD model • A system dynamics simulation engine (Powersim) • A visualization delivery tool (In3D) • Driving forces in the simulation • Population • Total income • Diet choices relative to per capita income

  10. Cultural Influences Relationships Underlyingthe PCD Model Total Population Total Malnourished Total Appetite Income Distribution Per Capita Proportion Malnourished Total Income Per Capita Appetite

  11. Commodities of Interest

  12. Regional Aggregations

  13. Move to Visualization • Fisher, D. K. 2000. Assessing how information affects cognitive maps of strategic issues. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation. University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. • Fisher, D. K., S. T. Sonka, and R. E. Westgren. "Strategic Decision Making in the Quasi-Government Sector: The Illinois Soybean Program Operating Board" International Journal of Organization Theory and Behavior, 7(2004):42-65.

  14. Effects • Quasi – experimental measurements • Anecdotal interpretation of actual decisions

  15. Ranking of Strategic Issues: Before and After Intervention Rank: (1 is MOST important)

  16. Ranking of Strategic Issues: Before and After Intervention Rank: (1 is MOST important)

  17. Ranking of Strategic Issues: Before and After Intervention Rank: (1 is MOST important)

  18. Implications / Effects • Existing marketing / promotion skills and resources are aligned with past, not the future (geography and practices) • Global income growth is #1 strategic issue (international trade policy) • Efforts to reduce malnutrition should be on the strategic agenda for human and business reasons (World Initiative for Soy in Human Health) • Development of Version 2 funded

  19. Lessons • Strategic choices / DSSs have distinctive characteristics • Philosophy: goal is better conversation • Visualization: Tufte principles are helpful • Case study: • intervention and • the IT-based tools

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