Introduction to the National Weather Service Howard University School of Atmospheric Science

1. Introduction to the National Weather ServiceHoward University School of Atmospheric Science Ken Waters NWS Regional Scientist National Weather Service Pacific Region Headquarters Honolulu, Hawaii June 1, 2005

2. Outline • An overview of the National Weather Service • A sample research area for NWS: GIS Technology

3. Department of Commerce (DOC) • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) • National Weather Service • Annual Budget $850M • NWS Mission: " The National Weather Service (NWS) provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. NWS data and products form a national information database and infrastructure which can be used by other governmental agencies, the private sector, the public, and the global community. "

4. National Weather Service Organization • National Headquarters in Silver Spring, MD • Support staff in Silver Spring • Numerous other support facilities around the country such as the National Training Center in Kansas City, and the National Severe Storms Lab in Norman OK • Six Regions (6 regional headquarters, 122 forecast offices): • Eastern (Bohemia NY) • Central (Kansas City MO) • Southern (Fort Worth TX) • Western (Salt Lake City UT) • Alaska (Anchorage AK) • Pacific (Honolulu HI) • National Center For Environmental Prediction (NCEP) (Camp Springs, MD) • Nine centers around the country producing national products and guidance

5. Location of Forecast Offices

6. NWS Staff • As of 2005: 4832 employees, including: • 2348 Meteorologists • 520 Meteorology Technicians • 288 Hydrologists • 516 Information Technology specialists • 432 Electronics Engineer/Technicians • 118 Physical Scientists (oceanographers, physicists, etc.) • 610 Other fields (administrative support, etc.)

7. NWS Systems • AWIPS (Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System) – In every forecast office; LINUX-based system used for visualization of weather/hydro data (incl models) and issuance of products • IFPS (Interactive Forecast Preparation System) – Graphical editing of forecast grids of surface elements • NEXRAD – Doppler radar network • NOAA Weather Radio (All-Hazards) – Radios that can be programmed to alert for specified counties and warnings

8. Products of National Weather Service • Warnings, Watches, and Advisories (tornado, severe thunderstorm, marine, flash flood, wind, heat, hurricane, tsunami, surf, etc.) • Aviation (terminal forecasts, AIRMETs, SIGMETs, graphical outlooks) • Marine (surf, coastal, offshore, high seas forecasts and oceanic charts) • Public forecasts (zone forecasts, state/area forecasts) • National Digital Forecast Database • Numerical Models Guidance • Climate Forecasts and Summaries • Hydrological warnings and summaries • ….plus much more!

10. National Digital Forecast Database • 2.5 km to 5.0 km resolution grid across entire country • Forecasts out to 7 days of temperature, wind, precipitation, humidity • Becoming the primary public forecast “product” for the NWS rather than text products • Legacy text products are derived from complex computer programs that interrogate the grids • Power users (AccuWeather, Weather Channel, etc.) can download the national grids and use to produce their own customized forecast products • MORE INFO: http://weather.gov/ndfd/

11. Typical Forecast Office • Meteorologist-in-charge (GS-14 or 15) • Warning Coordination Meteorologist (GS-13 or 14) • Science and Operations Officer (GS-13 or 14) • Information Technology Officer (GS-13) • 5 Lead Forecasters (GS-13) • 5 Journeyman Forecasters (GS-12) • 2 Meteorological Interns (GS-5 to 11) • Meteorological Technicians, Electronics Technicians, and other support staff

12. Requirements to become meteorologist in NWS Basic Requirements: • Degree: meteorology, atmospheric science, or other natural science major that included: • At least 24 semester (36 quarter) hours of credit in meteorology/atmospheric science including a minimum of: • Six semester hours of atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics;* • Six semester hours of analysis and prediction of weather systems (synoptic/mesoscale); • Three semester hours of physical meteorology; and • Two semester hours of remote sensing of the atmosphere and/or instrumentation. • Six semester hours of physics, with at least one course that includes laboratory sessions.* • Three semester hours of ordinary differential equations.* • At least nine semester hours of course work appropriate for a physical science major in any combination of three or more of the following: physical hydrology, statistics, chemistry, physical oceanography, physical climatology, radiative transfer, aeronomy, advanced thermodynamics, advanced electricity and magnetism, light and optics, and computer science. • *There is a prerequisite or corequisite of calculus for course work in atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics, physics, and differential equations. Calculus courses must be appropriate for a physical science major. • OR • Combination of education and experience--course work as shown in A above, plus appropriate experience or additional education. • Most meteorologists entering the NWS start at Met Intern level (GS-05 [~$28,000/yr]) although higher placement is available for holders of advanced (graduate) degrees or relevant experience (typically military) • Most existing meteorologists are working at GS-11 through GS-13 ($45k-$84k)

13. Getting Into the NWS • Entry Information: • http://www.weather.gov/eeo/StudentResearchOpportunities.htm • Jobs Online at: • https://jobs1.quickhire.com/scripts/doc.exe

14. …switching gears… A research application example of some work being done in NWS blending operations with new technologies. THE GOAL: integrate Geographic Information Systems (GIS) principles into the National Weather Service.

15. Background • National Weather Service issues four types of short-fused warnings: • Tornado Warnings (TOR) • Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (SVR) • Flash Flood Warnings (FFW) • Special Marine Warnings (SMW) • Issued normally for one county at a time • Can lead to a large false-alarm area, especially in the case of large or irregular-sized counties • Verification has been strictly county-based • Legacy dissemination methods all tied to counties: • NOAA All-Hazards/Weather Radio • Uses SAME alert code based on counties • Internet displays – again, based on counties

16. WARNGEN • Allows forecaster to graphically highlight the area of greatest threat • Creates a template text product for the warning, including proper headers, issue/expiration times, county UGC codes • ALSO: includes latitude/longitude vertex points for the pathcast, or polygon warning --- LITTLE USED by NWS, partners, and public

17. Using GIS with Polygon Warnings • Polygon vertices well-suited to include in GIS • Mechanism was established to strip off the lat-long polygon information, database the polygons, and create real-time GIS shapefiles • Using only open source (“freeware”) software • Code written in Perl • Polygon values formatted in ESRI “gen” format • Use “gen2shp” and “txt2dbf” packages

18. County vs. Polygon • Latitude/Longitude points at the bottom of all TORs, SVRs, FFWs, and SMWs.

19. Polygon Advantages • Shows specifically where the threat is • More accurately shows warning area on systems displaying warnings graphically • Reduction of risk area to public • Better graphical description capabilities • Wider local distribution via cell phones, PDAs, etc. • Increase NWS role in the confirmation part of the warning process • Private sector starting to turn to polygons • Allows NWS to refine warnings to true threat area • Allows us to track and set goals for false alarm area • Better warning quality • Keeps NWS in technological step

20. Polygon Advantages Polygon Eliminates Area False Alarmed

21. Prototype Test

22. Jackson MS Apr 5-7“Trial by fire”

23. And now, some examples, using 2004 warnings

24. Tornado Warnings -- 2004

25. Tornado WarningsFlorida 2004

26. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

27. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

28. Tendency to align warnings to county borders continued in 2004

29. Flash Flood Warnings

30. Special Marine Warnings

31. Flash Flood Warningsstill very “county-based”

32. Applications For Viewing Polygon Warnings • CONUS map showing warnings, updated each minute: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/ • ArcIMS map service for historical viewing: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/ • Texas A&M Site (warnings + radar): http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html • Iowa Mesonet: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml

33. Display of warnings onlyhttp://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/

34. Busy Day….!

35. ArcIMS Map Servicehttp://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html

36. Includes LSR data from SPC

37. Iowa Environmental Mesonethttp://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml

38. The Challenges • Internal to NWS • Forecaster paradigm shift to focus on weather threat • Workload issues keeping track of warnings • Ensuring events don’t slip between nearly adjacent warnings • Verification measures • Changes to GPRA baselines • Special verification issues (e.g., multiple warnings for same county) • Software • WARNGEN error -- periodically issues 2-point polygons well out of CWA • External to NWS • Dissemination! • Many TV Stations not prepared to display polygons • Niche market for private sector (e.g., WeatherData) • NOAA All-Hazards Radio • Technical limitation: location is based only on county • New generation of NWR needs to allow users to input either lat/long or nearest city to take advantage of polygon technology

39. Questions? • Updated every minute for TOR, SVR, FFW, SMW, as well as SPC watches • Available at: • http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hq/regsci/gis Ken Waters Regional Scientist NWS Pacific Region Honolulu, Hawaii Ken.waters@noaa.gov (808) 532-6413