PACT - WP3 ArcelorMittal - Mefos

1. PACT - WP3ArcelorMittal - Mefos Garching, 20 May 2009

2. WP3 - Objectives reminder • Mainly, to provide a matrix linking • probable technologies and • basic social services based on different scenarios leading to a post-carbon society • Materials intensity will be investigated as well as the ways they are produced, with a special focus on bulk materials as • Metals • Cement/concrete 80 % CO2 and energy materials sector

3. WP3 – Connections with WP1 & WP2 WP1: Post carbon cities and land-use at the end of the century List of technologies Urbanization schemes and related urban infrastructures for energy & transport in post carbon cities * WP3: Producing goods and services in post-carbon societies • Technology assessment for housing, energy and transport services of households in post-carbon society. • •Technology assessment for supply of: idem • •Quantification of material inputs for: idem • • Description of life-styles and behavioural changes to achieve a post-carbon society. SCENARIOS Focus on metals & concrete Social services WP2: Post-carbon social life and technologies

4. WP3 – Outputs from WP6 Quantification of scenarios POLES/VLEEM modeling

5. WP3 – The output matrix Analysis of technologies & organizations "supply" Technologies for production of intermediary goods and manufacturing of consumer goods-services, with a vision on scale of organizations & availability of resources Analysis of social needs "demand" Qualitative story line in each cell Mainly based on the input of WP1 & WP2 1 matrix per scenario Quantitative data for models

6. WP3 – Matrix cell example • Technology involved • Material demand, quantification scenarios scenarios scenarios Mefos/MIND modeling

7. Raw Materials Production system Energy Emissions Products & By-Products WP3 - MIND model • Method for analysis of INDustrial energy systems • Normally used to optimize the energy and/or material efficiency of a complex industrial system • Can also be used to assess how changed product demand, specifications, energy supply, material supply, emission limitations, new process technologies, and other factors, influences the energy and/or material efficiency.

8. WP3 - MIND model Steel production system Iron oxides Steel scrap DRI/HBI Limestone Quartz Other minerals Materials Coal PC Pet coke Nat gas Light oil Heavy oil Waste oil LPG Biofuel Plastics Wastes other Power Production system Agglomeration Cokemaking BF-BOF EAF DRI-EAF Casting Metal working New technologies (option) Carbon Capture (option) Energy Emissions CO2 Products Steel Tooling steels, Stainless steels, Other alloyed steels, Merchant steels (optional products)

9. WP3 - MIND model Cement production system Limestone Sand Iron oxide Shale BF slags Clay Gypsum Fly ash Materials Coal Pet coke Nat gas Fuel oil Car tyre LPG Biofuel PC Plastics Waste oil Paper Wastes other Power Production system Wet process Semi-wet process Semi-dry process Dry process Carbon Capture (option) Energy Emissions CO2 Products Portland cement CEM I/II/III/IV/V (alternate products)

10. Interaction – Interative process WP3 - MIND model Material demand Material supply Material production model Service/technology matrix Databases Predictions

11. WP3 – To do list • Produce a list of long term technologies by prospective, foresight, and planning tools. Here, we need expert view • Idem for expected goods and services. Experts needed too. • Build the Matrix by filling it with qualitative and quantitative information, using the Mefos MIND model . • What kind of interaction between MIND and POLES • Format the findings to feed the POLES model. • We need strong feedback for the other WPs • AM to run brain storming sessions & wrap up the conclusions • MEFOS to develop broad modeling tools

12. The macro-concerns for citizens Ecological problems, climate change Economy, social relations Availability of energy Availability of food Structuration of society, ensuring basic needs for citizens “Optimal”urbanization Efficient housing (energy, wastes) Healthcare (availability of health structures) Social welfare, education, entertainement, communication Mobility, controlled! WP3 – Which relevant issues ? Today concerns, with impacts from high C economy Desired society, Minimizing C AWAY from BAU

13. WP3 – up to now • We met with Enerdata and Lepii in Grenoble, Feb’09, and discussed about key points helping to think about: • Geographical coverage • Europe • …but Europe is part of the World  materials flows • Time horizon • 2050 should be reasonably accessible, • Going beyond needs to answer questions such “what paradigms will change ?”, for example what will be the need for food cooling • Taking into account peaks: population, oil

14. WP3 – up to now (cont’d) • Scenarios and constraints • Factor 4 impact on buildings: what should a building look like, consequences for materials need • Idem for urban and landscapes shapes • The notion of time-budget: lifestyles, to link more free time with impact on energy demand and supply, time for oneself, time for work… • Technologies and production • Don’t misunderstand the role of some technologies (for example CCS as a transition solution or a permanent one ?) • Geographical distribution of bulk materials producers as a key parameter

15. WP3 – up to now (cont’d) • After the Grenoble meeting, we have got a shape for the technologies X services matrix for • Transport • Shelter • Meanwhile, we have gathered some bibliographic or references in the fields • Housing • Urbanism • Social • Transport • Technologies • Utopias

16. WP3 – next immediate steps • Go on with populating the matrix services • Need information from WP1 and WP2 • To investigate the interaction between Matrix + Mind model + Poles