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Regional Flood Awareness Workshop December 3, 2009

Regional Flood Awareness Workshop December 3, 2009 . Jeff Graschel Service Coordination Hydrologist Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center. NWS Hydrology RFC Responsibilities. Staff of 15 to prepare forecasts .

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Regional Flood Awareness Workshop December 3, 2009

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  1. Regional Flood Awareness WorkshopDecember 3, 2009 Jeff Graschel Service Coordination Hydrologist Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center

  2. NWS Hydrology RFC Responsibilities Staff of 15 to prepare forecasts Precipitation dataset ingested into hydrologic model. Forecasters adjust model parameters in real time Provide River forecast to WFO and issue to public Precipitation estimates and forecasts merged into continuous dataset

  3. River Forecasts: How are they created? Upstream Flow Upstream River Gage Observed Precipitation Future Precipitation Local Basin Soil Model Rainfall to Runoff Unit Hydrograph Runoff to Flow Forecast River Gage Basin Local Flow Total Flow (cfs) Rating Curve Flow to Stage Forecaster Modification Forecast To Public

  4. Forecast Considerations • Ground State (How dry is it?) • Past Model Performances • Rainfall (Gage-based or Radar-based?) • Rainfall Variability • Space • Time

  5. Current Forecast Locations • Products prepared for each official forecast location • 5-day forecast • Probabilistic forecasts of weekly chance of exceeding stage, flow, and cumulative flow • Probabilistic forecasts of chance of exceeding stage, flow, and cumulative flow for the next 90 days

  6. 5-Day Forecast • Forecasts updated daily based on 7AM observations • Updates in the evening and when needed during significant events • Includes 12 hours of forecasted rainfall

  7. Precip ProductsDaily Images • Daily and multi-day precip products updated daily • National image with capability to zoom to state or region • Data available for download in shape and netcdf files • http://water.weather.gov/ http://water.weather.gov/

  8. Precip ProductsHourly Images • Hourly and multi-hour precip products updated each hour • Regional image with capability to zoom to state or region • Data available for download in shape and netcdf files www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_hourly.php

  9. Precip ProductsFuture Rainfall • Forecast of rainfall for next 72 hours in 6-hour increments • Updated every 6 hours at 6AM, 12PM, 6PM, and 6AM

  10. RFC ProductsFOP • Significant Flooding out to 5 days • Only includes moderate or greater flooding

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