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Models and stakeholders: Lessons learnt from research on different continents

Models and stakeholders: Lessons learnt from research on different continents. Thomas Gaiser. WAVES Water Availability and Vulnerability of Ecosystems and Society in Northeast Brazil. Studying the interactions between water availability and lifelihood in semi-arid rural areas.

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Models and stakeholders: Lessons learnt from research on different continents

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  1. Models and stakeholders: Lessons learnt from research on different continents Thomas Gaiser

  2. WAVES Water Availability and Vulnerability of Ecosystems and Society in Northeast Brazil • Studying the interactions between water availability and lifelihood in semi-arid rural areas • Developing two integrative modeling approaches at different regional scales

  3. Study area

  4. Spatial scale Temporal scale Resolution Extent Resolution SIM (Dynamic coupling) "Macro-scale" (States of Piauí and Ceará) Municipality 25 years (2000-2025) Variable (1 day to 1 year) Extent MOSDEL (Data coupling, GIS) "Meso-scale" (Guaribas water shed and municipality of Tauá) 1 ha 5 reference years Variable (1 day to 1 year) Two model approaches

  5. Institutions involved in Germany • Ceara • State Ministry of Planning • State Institute for Planning • State Ministry of Agriculture • State Ministry of Water Resources • Federal University of Ceara • Municipal Governement

  6. Incentives to use the project results • Frequent dry years with water and food shortage • High expenses for emergency aid • First attempt to develop a tool for integrating water and land use related sectors • Involvement of the state secretary for planning • Well established database management • Degree of complexity not too high

  7. Obstacles to adopt the developed modeling tools • Obstacles: • Relevant institutions were not participating from the very beginning • Transfer phase to short • Lack of financial resources for additional staff • Political changes

  8. RIVERTWIN Scientific and Technological Objectives • Building of scenarios of integrated water resources • management together with stakeholders to support the • establishment of River Basin Management Plans (RBMP) • Developing an integrated regional model for scenario analysis and evaluation under contrasting ecological and socioeconomic conditions in three river basins

  9. Three selected river basins

  10. MOSDEW - Model for Sustainable Development of Water Resources – Coupling of submodels -- Scenario assumptions Surface and ground water flow Water demand Integration and evalution Chem. Water quality Biol. Water quality Web-GIS Crop production and diff. pollutions Agricultural economy

  11. Driving Forces Stakeholder Participation in the „Story and Simulation“ approach Climate change Socio-economic change Interventions Input MOSDEW Stake- holders Output Indicators Socio-economic and ecological Evaluation Agreement Basin Management Plans

  12. Institutions involved in Germany • Neckar: • Ministery of Environment • Environmental Protection Agency • Regional Commission Stuttgart („River basin agency“) • District administration • Water supply companies and associations

  13. Incentives to use the project results • Incentives: • Political pressure from EC • First project which truely integrated agricultural sector and a wide range of water related problems • Technical and human capacity exist • Insufficiency of existing tools • Potential end-user involved from the beginning

  14. Obstacles to adopt the developed modeling tools • Obstacles: • Lack of „integrating“ institution • Fear to open the black box of existing tools • Fear of becoming dependent on external know-how? • Existing lobby for other approaches

  15. Institutions involved in Benin Republic • Oueme: • Governmental Water Authority • National Agricultural Research Center • Water supply company • University and national statistical office • Leaders of the districts (communes)

  16. Future institutional framework Oueme basin Ministere des Mines, de l´Energie et de l Hydraulique Direction Generale de l´Eau GIRE Gestion Integre des Resources en Eau Data management unit (River basin committees) Minstere de l´Agriculture, d´Elevage et de la peche Societe Beninoise des Eaux et de l´Electricité Chefs des departements et des communes

  17. Incentives to use the project results in Benin • Incentives: • New water law which makes basin related water management imperative • First project which tried to integrate agricultural and water sector • New water law making basin related water management imperative • End-user = project partner and involved from the beginning of the project

  18. Obstacles to adopt the developed modeling tools • Obstacles: • „Integrating“ institution is not yet established • Technical and human capacity exist only for some of the submodels • Financing of staff for database administration and model maintenance not secured • Project duration too short • Poor internet access for many of the administrative institutions • Technical and human capacity not yet well developed

  19. Institutions involved in Uzbekistan • Chirchik: • Interstate Commission for Water Coordination • River basin agency • Regional water boards • Water User Associations

  20. Keles irrigation unit South Kazakhstan province SCWR 26 th. ha Institutional framework Chirchik basin ICWC BWO “Syrdarya” Transboundary surface waters ICWC Scientific Information center Chirchik basin organization of irrigation systems, Minagrowater Uz Reservoirs and HES JSC “Uzbekpower” 2,5km3, 1230 MWt 382 th. ha Ground water resources: Ministry of Geology Irrigation systems and water canals WUAs shirkats state farms

  21. Incentives to use the project results in Uzbekistan • Incentives: • Heavy competition for water between mainly hydropower generation and irrigation • Transboundary issues • Project tried to quantify not only water balance but also economic aspects at the basin level • Modelling is an established tool in the institution • End-user of the model = project partner

  22. Obstacles to adopt the developed modeling tools • Obstacles: • Project duration too short

  23. Factors encouraging model adoption • Urgent problem that needs modeling approach („demand“) • Participation of end-users of the models in the project planning (Desired output, scale etc.) • Modelling and database management is an established tool in the institution • End-user of the model = project partner • Favorable institutional setting when different sectors are concerned • Own funding for end-users • Trust (Personal relationships, recognition of scientists)

  24. Obstacles for model adoption • The product does not fit the needs • Insufficient technical and human capacity • => Capacity building • Competition between institutions (ministries) =>Coordination by „neutral“ academic institution • Lack of financial resources for model maintenance • => Show the economic benefits • Lack of input and control data =>monitoring • Project duration (development and implementation phase) too short • => Flexible project time lifes

  25. Thank you for your attention !

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