98% of all statistics are made up…

1. 98% of all statistics are made up… AMA Stats Day 2008 Louise Addison Team Solutions

2. Statistical literacy in the new curriculum

3. Compare and Contrast it • For your curriculum level compare and contrast the statistical literacy strands to identify what is: • Only in old • In both • Only in new

4. Looking at progressions • L3 Evaluate the effectiveness of different displays in representing the findings of a statistical investigation or probability activity undertaken by others. • L4 Evaluate statements made by others about the findings of statistical investigations and probability activities. • L5 Evaluate statistical investigations or probability activities undertaken by others, including data collection methods, choice of measures, and validity of findings. • L6 Evaluate statistical reports in the media by relating the displays, statistics, processes, and probabilities used to the claims made.

5. Evaluation

6. Evaluation

7. Exploration 1: Sources What are your thoughts…

8. ARE YOU

9. Compare and contrast • Your thoughts • Your partner’s thoughts • Students’ thoughts

10. Newspaper Article Parents can predict their children's exam performance simply by looking at their hands, according to research. Psychologists claim that results in English and maths tests are linked to the length of fingers. Pupils with longer ring fingers are said to be more likely to excel in numeracy while those with shorter ring fingers tend to be more adept at literacy. www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-456994/Length-fingers-pupil-maths-English.html

11. Press Release Finger length helps predict SAT exam results, study shows. The results of numeracy and literacy tests for seven-year-old children can be predicted by measuring the length of their fingers, shows new research. In a study to be published in the British Journal of Psychology, scientists compared the finger lengths of 75 children with their Standardised Assessment Test (SAT) scores. They found a clear link between a child’s performance in numeracy and literacy tests and the relative lengths of their index (pointing) and ring fingers. Scientists believe that the link is caused by different levels of the hormones testosterone and oestrogen in the womb – and the effect they have on both brain development and finger length.

12. Journal Article A great deal of recent research has focused upon the relationship between a hypothesized index of prenatal testosterone exposure, digit ratio and health, social and cognitive functioning. Many inconsistencies within the pattern of findings have been identified in the relationship between digit ratio and absolute levels of cognitive ability. Recent research has identified a relationship between digit ratio and basic numeric competency. This basic numerical competency has been argued to be influenced by biological factors. The present study extended this finding to academic assessment, namely the Standardized Assessment Tests undertaken in numeracy and literacy by children in the UK at the age of 7. The present study hypothesized that digit ratio would correlate with the relative difference between numeracy and literacy abilities. Digit ratios were calculated for 75 (mainly Caucasian) children aged between 6 and 7 attending a state funded infant school. The digit ratios were then correlated with the results from their National Standard Assessment Tests(SATs). A significant correlation was found as hypothesized.

13. Compare and contrast • Image • Article • Press Release • Journal Article

14. Exploration 2: Visual statistics

15. Where is our zoom?

16. Who am I? • An artistic detour… • Artist: Chris Jordan • www.ted.com • www.chrisjordan.com

17. what am i?

18. View 2

19. Depicts one million plastic cups, the number used on airline flights in the US every six hours.

20. Hungry Planet • For your photo write 5 “I notice” and 5 “I wonder” statements…

23. I notice, I wonder I notice - Disagree / Agree - Reason / Explanation I wonder - Statement / Evidence / Explanation

24. Looking at the data

25. Exploration 3 - WHO Stats

26. Life Expectancy

27. Life Expectancy at birth (years) • Rational for use • Definition • Associate terms • Data Sources • Methods of Estimation • Disaggregation

28. Life expectancy at birth (years) Rationale for use • Life expectancy at birth reflects the overall mortality level of a population. It summarizes the mortality pattern that prevails across all age groups - children and adolescents, adults and the elderly. Definition • Average number of years that a newborn is expected to live if current mortality rates continue to apply. Associated terms • A life table presents a set of tabulations that describe the probability of dying, the death rate and the number of survivors for each age or age group. Accordingly, life expectancy at birth is an output of a life table. Data sources • Vital registration, census and surveys: Age-specific mortality rates required to compute life expectancy at birth.

29. Methods of estimation • WHO has developed a model life table based on about 1800 life tables from vital registration judged to be of good quality. • For countries with vital registration, the level of completeness of recorded mortality data in the population is assessed and mortality rates are adjusted accordingly. Where vital registration data for 2003 were available, these were used directly to construct the life table. For countries where the information system provided a time series of annual life tables, parameters from the life table were projected using a weighted regression model, giving more weight to recent years. Projected values of the two life table parameters were then applied to the modified logit life table model, where the most recent national data provided an age pattern, to predict the full life table for 2003.In case of inadequate sources of age-specific mortality rates, the life table is derived from estimated under-5 mortality rates and adult mortality rates that are applied to a global standard (defined as the average of all the 1800 life tables) using a modified logit model.

30. Disaggregation • By sex, location (urban/rural, major regions/provinces). • Comments • The lack of complete and reliable mortality data, especially for low income countries and particularly on mortality among adults and the elderly, necessitates the application of modelling (based on data from other populations) to estimate life expectancy. WHO uses a standard method as explained above to estimate and project life tables for all Member States using comparable data. This may lead to minor differences compared with official life tables prepared by Member States.

31. Stating the obvious • What conclusions would you like students to draw from the following graphs? • What questions would you like them to ask?

42. Links • http://www.who.int/whosis/whostat2007_10highlights.pdf • WHO – WHO Statistical Information System reports for 2005 - 2008 • http://www.who.int/whosis/en/

43. Exploration 4 -THINKits

45. Exploration 5 - What do the following quotes and cartoons say about statistics?

47. The scholarship student • Which of these relate to statistical literacy?

48. KC’s

49. KC’s

50. Strands