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Diversity of Coupling Wheels in East Asian Summer Monsoon Forecast Challenge in China

This study analyzes the diversity of coupling wheels in the East Asian Summer Monsoon, focusing on earlier signals in SST anomalies. The research encompasses seasonal and intraseasonal variations from 1979 to 2015 using PCA and MV-EOF methods.

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Diversity of Coupling Wheels in East Asian Summer Monsoon Forecast Challenge in China

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  1. Diversity of the Coupling Wheels in the East Asian Summer Monsoon—The great challenge of summer rainfall forecast in China • Congwen Zhu • With co-authors: B. Liu, K. Xu, K. Liu and N. Jiang • Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 • E-mail:zhucw@cma.gov.cn；Tel.68407544

  2. East Asian Summer Monsoon East Asian summer monsoon averaged 1981-2010

  3. Seasonal and intraseasonal variations of EASM Zhu et al., Sci China Earth Sci,2011 Song et al.,J.Climate,2016

  4. Outline • Background • Dominant modes of EASM on interannual time scale • Diversity of the coupling wheels in EASM • Earlier signals in the SST anomaly • Summary

  5. Data and methods • Data: • Atmospheric components with 2.52.5 in resolution, provided by the NCEP/DOE R2 reanalysis (Kanamitsu et al. 2002); • 160 in suite monthly precipitation in China, and the global OI SST derived from the NOAA during 1979-2015. • Methods: • The principal component analysis (PCA, Obukhov,1947) and the multi-variant EOF (MV-EOF) analysis (Wang et al., 2008); • Potential vorticity (Hoskins,1985) ; • To focus on the interanual time scale, all linear trend have been removed form the anomalies before analysis.

  6. MV-EOF analysis of winds and rainfall anomalies (1979-2015) MV-EOF1 MV-EOF2 Boreal summer; JJA mean

  7. PC-correlated three-dimensional circulations

  8. Diversity of the coupling wheels

  9. Scatter plots of PCs with indices 1979-2015

  10. K-means cluster analysis of Three circulation indices1979-2015 (37 years) Circulation indices Rainfall anomalies

  11. Circulation anomalies related to Mode1 & 2

  12. Table of Correlation coefficients

  13. Outline • Background • Coupling wheels of East Asian summer monsoon • Diversity of the monsoon coupling • Earlier signals in the SST anomaly • Summary

  14. Impacts of ENSO on the EASM Xie S-P, Kosaka Y, Du Y, Hu KM, Chowdary JS, Huang G. 2016. Indo-Western Pacific Ocean Capacitor and Coherent Climate Anomalies in Post-ENSO Summer: A Review. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 33: 411­–432

  15. North Atlantic triple and dipole modes (EOF analysis) NATM NADM

  16. Earlier signals of circulation index in the SSTA anomalies MCI SAHI WPAI

  17. Lead-lag correlations of SST anomalies with PCs PC1 PC2

  18. Summary Diversity Coupling wheels of EASM 24 7 6

  19. Thank you very much!

  20. 1979-2018

  21. 1979-2018 enlarged domain

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