Third THORPEX International Science Symposium Monterey, CA. September 2009.

1. Climatic Research Unit Status of (SERA) for weather and climate information in Mexico Jorge L. Vázquez (UEA) and Juan Cervantes-Pérez Third THORPEX International Science Symposium Monterey, CA. September 2009.

2. Five SERA priorities of North American THORPEX (Morrs et al., 2007) Understanding the use of forecast information in decisionmaking; Communicatingweatherforecastuncertainty; Developinguser-relevantverificationmethods; Estimating the economic value of weather forecasts; Developing decision-support systems and tools

3. The SERA framework (Morrs et al., 2007. BAMS)

4. High impact weather in Mexico Tropical cyclones, easterly waves, cold surges or “nortes”, orographic precipitation and local convection FONDEN indemnities 1995-2003: AGROASEMEX 13th tropical wave 2008 Tabasco.floods, 2008. Photo: FAO. Damages due to strong winds and rainfall; 4 deaths. 1998. Source: Diario de Xalapa.

5. An Early Warning System for Tropical Cyclones (Civil Defense) Different WARNING stages of the EWS for Tropical Cyclones. Red: Maximum danger, impacts-mitigation; Orange: High danger-alarm; Yellow: Moderate danger-preparation; Green: Low danger-prevention; Blue: Minimum danger-awareness. First page of a Civil Defensehidromet. Bulletin. Hurricane Jimena, Sep. 2009.

6. Main features corresponding to a “norte” event • A “Norte” is a weathertypethatmightresult in highsocietal and economicimpacts: • A highpressuresystemoverthe Rocky Mountainsmovingeastwardtothe Florida Peninsula. • Very intense low-levelnortherlywindsovertheGulf of Mexicoblowingthroughthe Tehuantepec Istmusreaching Central America • Dailysurfacetemperaturedecreasesfrom 2 to 15 degreesrelatedto a cold air massincursion. • Precipitationovertheeasterncoast of Mexicovarying in intensity and duration.

7. Synoptic patterns associated to a “norte” event (surface) Compositepatternforsurfacepressureand wind

8. Synoptic patterns associated to a “norte” event (surface) Compositepatternforsurfacepressureand wind

9. Synoptic patterns associated to a “norte” event (surface) Compositepatternforsurfacepressureand wind

10. Synoptic patterns associated to a “norte” event (surface) Compositepatternforsurfacepressureand wind

11. Synoptic patterns associated to a “norte” event (surface) Compositepatternforsurfacepressureand wind (surface)

12. Synoptic patterns associated to a “norte” event (500 mb) Compositepatternforgeopotential and wind (500 mb) zonal mean removed

13. Synoptic patterns associated to a “norte” event (500 mb) Compositepatternforgeopotential and wind (500 mb) zonal mean removed

14. Synoptic patterns associated to a “norte” event (500 mb) Compositepatternforgeopotential and wind (500 mb) zonal mean removed

15. Synoptic patterns associated to a “norte” event (500 mb) Compositepatternforgeopotential and wind (500 mb) zonal mean removed

16. Synoptic patterns associated to a “norte” event (500 mb) Compositepatternforgeopotential and wind (500 mb) zonal mean removed

17. Working with user communities, linking weather and climate • Most of SERA developments at seasonal and monthly time-scales so far. • One well definedusergroupof climate information: the Climate Prediction Forum meets twice a year to discuss applications of forecasts. • A new group formed in 2009, aimed to use information on extremes into decision-making processes. • Recent studies on the economics of climate change could provide a base platform for SERA in shorter time-scales. Participants from various socioeconomic sectors. Climate Prediction Forum, 2007. ETCCDI Workshop on detection of changes in the climate extremes of Mexico. March, 2009.

18. Five SERA priorities of North American THORPEX (Morrs et al., 2007) Understanding the use of forecast information in decisionmaking; Communicatingweatherforecastuncertainty; Developinguser-relevantverificationmethods; Estimating the economic value of weather forecasts; Developing decision-support systems and tools

19. A survey on the use and perception of weather forecasts • Launched by the end of winter 2008-2009 • Electronic format • Twenty questions • Distributed through: • SMN’s webpage and OMMAC e-mail lists • Answers from all the Federal States but two • Respondents: • 32% female and 68% male. • 57% hold a bachelor’s degree. • One of the questions revealed that 48% of the sample hardly makes a difference between the terms ‘weather’ and ‘climate’.

20. Lookof the survey in SMN’s webpage

21. Look of the survey in SMN’s webpage

22. Look of the survey in SMN’s webpage

23. Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

24. Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

25. Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

26. Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

27. Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

28. Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

29. Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

30. Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

31. Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

32. Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

33. Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

34. Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

35. Next THORPEX-SERA steps in Mexico • Capacity building in cooperation with U.S. and Canada • Design/execute a SERA Implementation Plan for Mexico • Prediction enhancements using TIGGE/NAEFS products • Demonstration projects and related developments • Take advantage of existent links between weather and climate user communities • Promotion of the SERA framework (Morss et al, 2007) across weather/climate related institutions in Mexico • A NAC meeting to be held in May 2010 organized by IMTA.

36. Summary and conclusions • High impact weather systems are mostly identified in Mexico, but need further research (dynamics). • TIGGE and other recent developments in THORPEX are expected to improve current predictions. • Taking advantages of existent user groups of climate information is a priority for weather developments. • A first exercise to assess how the users perceive the weather forecasts in Mexico was conducted. It is suggested to continue working on the topic. • SERA priorities are to be promoted across Mexico and cooperations with U.S. and Canadian institutions need to be established in the short-term

37. Acknowledgements • Michel Rosengaus, OlivaParada and Raul Larios from SMNcontributed to publish and distribute the survey. • Valuable comments from Ricardo Prieto and José Llanos. • Brian Mills and David Parsons have provided constant support & encourangement. • Support for attending the TTISS was received from THORPEX-IPO, thanks to David Burridge (IPO), Nathalie Tournier (WMO) & Pam Johnson (UCAR). • Research supported through a studentship by the Government of Mexico (CONACYT & SEP). Thanks very much for listening Jorge-Luis Vazquez-Aguirre Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, UK. NR4 7TJ. J.ClimSci@gmail.com Juan Cervantes-Perez Centro de Ciencias de la Tierra Universidad Veracruzana. Xalapa, Ver. México. 91000 jcervantes@uv.mx