Impact of Achieving Food Harvest 2020 Targets on Nitrogen and Phosphorus Usage

1. The Impact of Achieving Targetsset out in Food Harvest 2020 on Nitrogenand Phosphorus Usage Noel Culleton

2. Food Harvest 2020 Targets • Increase value of primary output by € 1.5 billion • 50% increase in milk output • Increase in output value of 20% in beef and sheep • No targets for cereals

3. Principles and Issues around Sustainable Fertiliser Usage • Maximising output from grassland • Soil phosphorus (P) balances and spreading strategies • Environmental challenges to FH 2020

4. Maximising Output From Grassland • Grass grazed efficiently is cheapest feed source • Remain competitive by reducing concentrate and silage fed • Productive grassland depends on adequate soil fertility “To achieve FH 2020 targets by maximising grass output, rather than increasing concentrate feed, means that maintaining soil fertility is vital”

5. Soil Nutrient Balances and Fertiliser Strategies • Phosphorus maintenance and build up • Concept of P balance • P balance and stocking rate

6. Environmental Challenges to FH 2020 • Grassland and nutrient cycling • Environmental issues: • Water quality • Climate Change • Biodiversity

7. Water Quality • Nitrates Directive vs. Water Framework Directive • Negotiations on water quality vs. Increasing fertiliser use - (P balance) • Source verification

8. Climate Change Proportionate burden sharing across sectors poses a threat to 2020 targets This threat must be challenged: No increases in stock numbers (FAPRI) Emissions per kg of product are low Forestry may help resolve issue More efficiencies to be found in farming

9. Biodiversity • Will a reduction in biodiversity pose a threat to achieving targets ? unlikely!! • Template needed to find local solutions to local problems, with mechanisms for cost benefit analyses • Nationally, stocking rates are still low • More regulation in high conservation areas • Opportunities for more biodiversity on intensive farms

10. Predicted Impact of FH 2020 on Phosphorus Usage Methodology: • CSO data for milk and beef in reference years (2007-2009) • 50% increase in milk sales • FAPRI data used for beef and sheep production in 2020 • P offtakes as reported by Coulter and Lalor (2008) • Cereal production in 2007-2009 as recorded by CSO • Cereal production in 2020 as predicted by FAPRI • Calculations based on p balance - adequate soil p status is assumed

11. P offtakes • *Tillage figure based on FAPRI estimate of 18% reduction in tillage area • P offtakes kg/ha/yr in each enterprise  Beef 4-6 kg Milk 10-14 kg Tillage 30-40 kg

12. Soil P Fertility Source: Plunkett 2012

13. Future Soil P Fertility

14. Implications of Poor Fertility 1.5 t DM per ha less at Index 1 than at Index 3 (Teagasc) Table 4 implies that an additional 750,000 ha of grassland will revert to Index 1 Therefore there will be approx. 1 million tonnes of grass DM lessthan current output If output is to be maintained, extra concentrates must be fed

15. Issues that need to be addressed • Phosphorus is a finite resource (Cordell et al.,2009) • Sustainable P usage by farmers • Water quality cannot be ignored • More knowledge: • Soil chemistry • P recycling • Soil type and recommendations • Overland flow prevention measures

16. Predicted Impact Of FH 2020 on Nitrogen Usage • Predicted livestock numbers • Predicted changes in land use in 2020 • Predicted fertiliser nitrogen for grazing livestock in 2020

17. Livestock Numbers Source: FAPRI-Ireland Predictions, Donnellan and Hanrahan,2011

18. Land Use Change Sources : FAPRI 2011 ; Farm Management Survey 2011; Fertiliser Use Survey 2008

19. Assumptions and Calculations • Farmers moving out of beef and tillage will move into dairying • The extra land available to dairying will moderate stocking rates to a 10 % increase • Stocking rate increases will occur across all stocking rate groupings

20. Table 7. Nitrogen Fertiliser Use on the Dairy Grazing Platform under FH 2020 Scenario

21. Nitrogen Projections • Mean N use for dairying will increase by 18 % • 50% of cows will be in the 130-170 kg/ha of organic N grouping resulting in a 24 % increase in N usage • More scope for lowly stocked farms (<170 kg/ha of organic N) to increase cow numbers compared to highly stocked farms due to land availability and Nitrate Directive restrictions. • Significant increases in cow numbers at high stocking rates, requiring derogations.

22. Nitrogen Fertiliser

23. Summary and Conclusions (1) • There will be 2,467 extra tonnes of p removed per year from dairying. To maintain soil fertility this must be replaced • Due to the projected decline in area under tillage p use should decline by approx 17 %. this may be a pessimistic view • Modest increase in P usage in beef systems - approx. 540 tonnes per year • Over all increase in P usage in use of 6.9 % • The % of soils in Index 1 and 2 have increased from 40 % to 55 % in the last 5 years

24. Summary and Conclusions (2) • If we extrapolate this decline to 2020, there will be 47 % of soils in Index 1 and 37 % of soils in Index 2 • There is a decline in yield of 1.5 t DM/ha/yr from Index 3 to Index 1. This means a reduction of 1 million tonnes of grass DM per year, should this decline continue. • Extra concentrates will be required to replace this grass • This will result in a decline in competitiveness • Need for an awareness campaign to highlight the importance of P to the industry. • Point out that there need not be a deterioration in water quality when P usage is increased, if good farm practice is adhered to • Urgently need more technical information on P cycling/ chemistry/ recommendations and measures to prevent overland flow

25. Summary and Conclusions (3) • Trends in n use are more difficult to predict • 18 % increase in N use in dairying, due to increases in stocking rates • Little change in n usage in beef or sheep • Decline in N use in tillage, due to predicted reduction in tillage area. This scenario may not arise • Nitrogen use in the whole sector is projected to increase by approximately 16 % • The major change is in the dairy sector • In 2007-09, Dairy used 53% of the total N. By 2020,dairying is projected to use 64 % of the total N

26. Summary and Conclusions (4) • Research on improving N recovery/ recycling needs to be expanded • The projected fertiliser increases in usage in this paper can be achieved without breaking the Nitrates Directive regulations. The P increases are due to increased output and maintaining P balances • The extra nitrogen is needed to maintain the increased stocking rates that are still within the organic nitrogen thresholds outlined in the Nitrates Directive.