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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 November 2012. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons. Outline. Highlights

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 November 2012 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much of South America especially north of 10S. Above-average rainfall was found over southern Peru, southwestern Brazil (centered near 13S/60W) and central Argentina. • For 5-11 November, above-average precipitation is predicted for southeastern Brazil, southeastern Bolivia, northern Paraguay and a portion of eastern Argentina, and below-average precipitation is predicted over northern and northwestern South America, northeastern Argentina and extreme southern Brazil. • For 12-18 November, above-average precipitation is predicted over southeastern Brazil, northern Colombia and northeastern Argentina, and below-average precipitation is predicted over most regions north of 10S, extreme southern Brazil and northeastern Argentina. • .

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much of South America especially north of 10S. Above-average rainfall was found over southern Peru, southwestern Brazil (centered near 13S/60W) and central Argentina.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over most regions north of 30S. Above-average precipitation was found over portions of central Columbia, Peru, Uruguay and eastern Argentina.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall totals are clearly below average over the southern Amazon basin, Brazilian Plateau, and southern Brazil.

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies Above-average SSTs are observed in the western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Above-average SSTs are found in 10-20N and below-average SSTs are observed in 10-20S in the Atlantic Ocean. (For more details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the period of 27 October – 2 November, anomalous upper-tropospheric anticyclonic circulation (center indicated by red A) was observed to the northeastern Argentina. Upper-tropospheric convergent flow was found over northern South America. • Lower panels: Anomalous rising motion (negative omega) was observed over 20S-40S and sinking motion was found over most regions north of 20S. A Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days • During the 7-day period of 27 October – 2 November 2012, temperatures were above average over most of Brazil (especially in the south) and northeastern Argentina. Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 5 Nov 2012 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 5 Nov 2012 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (5-11 November), above-average precipitation is predicted for southeastern Brazil, southeastern Bolivia, northern Paraguay and a portion of eastern Argentina, and below-average precipitation is predicted over northern and northwestern South America, northeastern Argentina and extreme southern Brazil. • For Days 8-14 (12-18 November), above-average precipitation is predicted over southeastern Brazil, northern Colombia and northeastern Argentina, and below-average precipitation is predicted over most regions north of 10S, extreme southern Brazil and northeastern Argentina.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 22 Oct 2012 Valid 29 Oct – 4 Nov 2012 Forecast from 29 October 2012 Valid 29 Oct – 4 Nov 2012 Observed 29 Oct – 4 Nov 2012 Unavailable

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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