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GMO Crops: To Grow or Not to Grow?. Marshall A. Martin Professor and Associate Head Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Crop Production Clinic Madison County, Indiana December 7, 2000. Organization of Today’s Presentation. GMO crops .
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GMO Crops: To Grow or Not to Grow? Marshall A. Martin Professor and Associate Head Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Crop Production Clinic Madison County, Indiana December 7, 2000
Organization of Today’s Presentation • GMO crops
Organization of Today’s Presentation • GMO crops • Public attitudes towards GMO crops
Organization of Today’s Presentation • GMO crops • Public attitudes towards GMO crops • Economics of transgenic corn adoption
Organization of Today’s Presentation • GMO crops • Public attitudes towards GMO crops • Economics of transgenic corn adoption • Crop segregation
Organization of Today’s Presentation • GMO crops • Public attitudes towards GMO crops • Economics of transgenic corn adoption • Crop segregation • The Starlink case
What is a GMO crop? • Transfer of a gene from a soil bacteria that codes for a protein
What is a GMO crop? • Transfer of a gene from a soil bacteria that codes for a protein • Protein becomes a toxin and kills selected insects
Insect Control with Biotechnology • Insect resistant crops commercially available, e.g., Bt corn, cotton, and potatoes
Insect Control with Biotechnology • Insect resistant crops commercially available, e.g., Bt corn, cotton, and potatoes • Transgenic corn for rootworm control under development
Crop Applications of Biotechnology • Herbicide tolerant crops, e.g., Roundup Ready corn and soybeans
U.S. Crop Biotechnology Adoption (USDA Survey) 1999 2000 2000 US US IN Corn 33% 25% 11% Soybeans 57% 54% 63%
Biotechnology Critics What are the public concerns?
Monarch Butterfly • Cornell and Iowa State University laboratory studies of adverse Bt corn pollen impact
Monarch Butterfly • Cornell and Iowa State University laboratory studies of adverse Bt corn pollen impact • Recent field studies suggest minimal adverse impact
Undesired Gene Flow • Cross pollination
Undesired Gene Flow • Cross pollination • Organic farmer concerns
Undesired Gene Flow • Superweeds
Food Safety • Allergenicity
Food Safety • Allergenicity • Unknown diseases or future health consequences
Many Europeans uneasy about biotechnology • Strong environmental movement
Many Europeans uneasy about biotechnology • Strong environmental movement • No coherent regulatory system
Many Europeans uneasy about biotechnology • Strong environmental movement • No coherent regulatory system • Weak public trust in government since mad cow disease (BSE)
Many Europeans uneasy about biotechnology • Strong environmental movement • No coherent regulatory system • Weak public trust in government since mad cow disease (BSE) • EU consumers perceive no benefits with potential risk
Many Europeans uneasy about agricultural biotechnology • Strong environmental movement • No coherent regulatory system • Weak public trust in government since mad cow disease (BSE) • EU consumers perceive no benefits with potential risk • Protectionist farm policies
Many Europeans uneasy about agricultural biotechnology • Strong environmental movement • No coherent regulatory system • Weak public trust in government since mad cow disease (BSE) • EU consumers perceive no benefits with potential risk • Protectionist farm policies • Strong support for labeling
U.S. Consumer Attitudes towards Food Biotechnology • About 3/4 Americans have heard of biotechnology
U.S. Consumer Attitudes towards Food Biotechnology • About 3/4 Americans have heard of biotechnology • About 1 out of 3 consumers know that GMO foods are now in our supermarkets
U.S. Consumer Attitudes towards Food Biotechnology • About 3/4 would buy a GMO food if less pesticide use
U.S. Consumer Attitudes towards Food Biotechnology • About 3/4 would buy a GMO food if less pesticide use • About 3/4 support FDA labeling of biotechnology foods with health and nutrition information
My Biotechnology Research • Economics of Corn Insect Control • graduate student research • ID-219 (extension pub) • Review of Agricultural Economics 21(2):1999 • AgBioForum, 3(1):2000 • 1998, 1999, & 2000 AAEA Selected Papers
European Corn Borer • $1 billion annual damage in U.S.
European Corn Borer • $1 billion annual damage in U.S. • Physiological damage
European Corn Borer • $1 billion annual damage in U.S. • Physiological damage • Mechanical damage
Multi-State Study • Indiana • Illinois • Iowa • Kansas
Decision Analysis Model • A decision tree
Data • Collaborative arrangements • Indiana: Bledsoe and Obermeyer • Illinois: Steffey • Iowa: Hellmich • Kansas: Buschman and Higgins
Data • Scouting and spraying costs
Data • Scouting and spraying costs • Spraying efficacy
Data • Scouting and spraying costs • Spraying efficacy • Corn planting dates • Probability distribution • Yield losses for late planting
Data • Scouting and spraying costs • Spraying efficacy • Corn planting dates • Probability distribution • Yield losses for late planting • ECB yield damage by planting date
Data • Probability of number of ECB given plant date and infestation
Data • Probability of number of ECB given plant date and infestation • Probability of number of ECB per plant given infestation
Data • Probability of number of ECB given plant date and infestation • Probability of number of ECB per plant given infestation • Overall probability of infestation
Results – Indiana and Iowa • Returns to spraying less than per acre scouting costs
Results – Indiana and Iowa • Returns to spraying less than per acre scouting costs • Compare Bt corn to non-Bt without a spraying program