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Systems Thinking and Modeling for Policy Analysis and Design

Systems Thinking and Modeling for Policy Analysis and Design. Dynamics: Graphs over time Structure: Causal-loop Diagrams Stocks and Flows . Patterns of Behavior. System Structure. A Systems Perspective. Reactive. Events and Decisions. Adaptive. Increasing leverage. Generative.

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Systems Thinking and Modeling for Policy Analysis and Design

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  1. Systems Thinking and Modelingfor Policy Analysis and Design Dynamics: Graphs over time Structure: Causal-loop Diagrams Stocks and Flows

  2. Patterns of Behavior System Structure A Systems Perspective Reactive Events and Decisions Adaptive Increasing leverage Generative

  3. New York, Chicago & Philadelphia, 1800-2000

  4. Populations of Selected U.S. Cities, 1900-2000

  5. Structure and Dynamics of Terrorist Cells Peripheral support Funding (R) Suppression activities Terrorist actions (R) (R) (B) (R) New recruits Terrorist group (R) Losses (B) Zeal (R) (R) Martyrs to the cause

  6. The Classic Policy Planning Loop

  7. The Classic Loop with Complications

  8. The Classic Loop with Complications

  9. The Classic Loop with Complications

  10. Human Activity, CO2, and Global Temperature Thought experiment:

  11. Dynamic Planning for COIN in Afghanistan Source: PA Consulting

  12. Urban Dynamics

  13. Systems Thinking in a Nutshell • Dynamic thinking • Graphs over time • Stock-and-flow thinking • Accumulations and what changes them • Feedback thinking • Reinforcing and balancing loops of circular causality • Thinking endogenously • ‘The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves…’

  14. Policy Resistance of Complex Systems

  15. Policy Resistance of Complex Systems

  16. Policy Resistance of Complex Systems

  17. Policy Resistance in Complex Systems

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