Africa's Growth, Poverty, and Agriculture: Linkages and Policy

1. Growth, Poverty and Agriculture in Africa: Linkages and Policy Joachim von Braun Director General International Food Policy Research Institute Accra, Nov. 2007

2. IFPRI’s Strategic Framework Research Partners, stakeholders, donors, IFPRI Board and Staff Influence on policies Impact on poor people Capacity strengthening Policymakers, media, opinion leaders, and IFPRI Policy communication

3. ECOWAS AU CORAF ASARECA IFPRI in Africa IFPRI Offices COMESA SAKSS Nodes NEPAD

4. Africa on the move: Overview • Growth for poverty reduction • Africa’s new growth and development initiatives (NEPAD and CAADP) • Supporting implementation of Africa’s growth agenda

5. AFRICA IS GROWING AGAIN

6. GROWTH IS SPREADING

7. Agriculture GROWTH IS SPREADING

8. TRADE PERFORMANCE IS PICKING UP Index of Ag. Export Volume (2000 =100) Index of Ag. Export Value (2000 =100)

9. More and more countries are witnessing changes towards improved ‘Government Effectiveness’ Source: 2006 Worldwide Governance Indicators, The World Bank, 2007

10. Agricultural input industry top 10: $37 bln • Syngenta • Bayer • BASF • Monsanto • DuPont • Farms • Agricultural • value added: • $1,315 bln 450 million >100 ha: 0.5% < 2 ha: 85% Food processors and traders top 10: $363 bln • Nestle • Cargill • Unilever • ADM • Kraft Foods Food retailers top 10:$777bln • Wal-Mart • Carrefour • Royal Ahold • Metro AG • Tesco C o n s u m e r s $4,000 billion The world food system globalizes Source: von Braun, 2005

11. Prices: Agricultural and energy prices increasingly correlate …and price variations are up Source: IMF 2007;OECD 2005; World Bank 2007

12. Climate change & energy threats • By 2020, 75-250 million people expected to be exposed to drought (mainly in Africa) • Adverse effect on livelihoods & food security • Exacerbate malnutrition & water-related problems • By 2020, yields could be reduced by up to 50% (rain-fed agriculture) Energy: biofuels - food / biomass competition Higher food prices (scenarios: 30 to 80% + prices) Instabilities increase (new risks for Africa’s poor)

13. Looking beneath the dollar-a-day line Medial poor ($0.50 and <$0.75): 323 mln in 2004 Ultra poor (<$0.50): 162 mln in 2004 Subjacent poor ($0.75 and <$1): 485 mln in 2004 Source: Ahmed et al. IFPRI, 2007

14. The share of the poorest in SSA is growing Change in the share of poor living below .50$/day 1990-2004 Source: Ahmed et al. 2007

15. MDG progress (GHI), growth & governance Source: Wiesmann 2007. Low gov. effectiveness is assigned to countries in the lowest quartile of Worldwide Governance Indicators.

16. What explains the high poverty and hunger incidences in Africa? • Low agricultural productivity and output growth • Poor access to infrastructure, production inputs and rural services (e.g. health and education) • Loss of competitiveness in domestic, regional and world markets • Years of neglect of food staples and livestock sectors • Inadequate public and private sector investments, especially in rural areas • Weak enabling environment: governance, institutions, standards and regulations • Low capacity to deal with vulnerabilities to political instability and natural shocks (droughts, disease and pests, health, such as HIV/AIDS and Malaria)

17. The Strategic Square ECONOMIC GROWTH; Agriculture CONFLICT & Governance Innovation & Capacity Services & infrastructure

18. THE COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME MAIN FEATURES & PRINCIPLES • AGRICULTURE-LED GROWTH TO REACH MDG1 • TARGET GOAL OF 6% SECTOR GROWTH RATE • INCREASED PUBLIC INVESTMENT (10% BUDGET SHARE) • FOUR MAIN PILLARS TO GUIDE INVESTMENT • Land and water management • Agribusiness and Infrastructure • Hunger and social safety nets • Science and Technology • POLICY EFFICIENCY, PEER REVIEW, ACCOUNTABILITY • EXPLOITATION OF REGIONAL COMPLEMENTARITIES • INCLUSIVENESS: FARMERS, AGRIBUSINESS, CIVIL SOCIETY

19. Supporting implementation of Africa’s growth agenda • Analytical Agenda and M&E of CAADP • Piloting Country Strategy Support • Establishment of ReSAKSS • Providing Roundtable Support to Implement CADDP at the National Level

20. Analytical Agenda and M&E for CAADP Implementation Developing Analytical Agenda to Support • Pillar 1: Land and water management • Pillar 2:Regional integration and trade, market access, agribusiness, and rural infrastructure • Pillar 3: Food security • Pillar 4: Agricultural research and technology

21. PROGRESS TOWARDS CAADP GROWTH TARGET

22. Progress against CAADP 10% goal (2004) Source: Fan et al., IFPRI (forthcoming)

23. Analysis Support • 1. How agricultural growth vs. non agricultural growth contributes to national development goals • 2. How much investment is needed to support needed agricultural growth • 3. How to allocate agricultural investment • 4. What are other complementary polices are needed to help the poor who will not benefit from agricultural growth • 5. How to reform the governance structure

24. Ghana Source: IFPRI work in Progress

25. GHI Trends in Africa 1981 - 2003

26. Conclusions: New partnering with Africa • African economic growth accelerates • Agriculture is essential element of growth • Institutional reforms for markets & infrastructure • Strategic support at • National and • regional level • Facilitating learning • across countries