ProNet. Korsør 29. November 2011 New dynamic regional development

1. ProNet. Korsør 29. November 2011 New dynamic regional development South Scandinavia – North Germany Christian Wichmann Matthiessen University of Copenhagen

2. Growth factors • The knowledge economy • Knowledge and information: key inputs and -outputs • Information and knowledge: growth in speed of diffusion • The knowledge economy is a network economy • Cohesion: increasing importance • Entrepreneurship and innovation: rewarding • Critical mass important • Globalisation • Competition: on everything (almost) • Growth in cooperation and dependence • Price on transport: decreasing • Price on communication: decreasing dramatically • Price on face to face contact: relatively increasing • Localisation decisions: freedom of choice • Therefore: attractive environments – liveable cities • Engines of the economy: Metropolitan units • Economy of scale - diversity • Best equipped with the infrastructure of the knowledge society • Over average share of well educated persons • Good links to the global economy: airports, internet backbone structure • Home bases, clusters • Attractive and liveable cities (Richard Florida)

3. The black cloud • Global crises • Denmark: • Share of the international competitive part of the economy • Low growth in productivity • Entrepreneurship problems • GDP-growth 2010-2025: European bottom (OECD 2010) • The demographic problem • Youth unemployment • Challenges • Position on international ranking lists threatened • Revitalisation of the Danish-Swedish integration project • New cooperation in the Copenhagen/Malmö - Hamburg axis • Berlin, Warsaw • Copenhagen Airport • The European high speed railroad network • Sustainability (CO2) • The cluster concept: further opportunities

4. High speed railroads 2025 Source: International Union of Railways, 2010 www.uic.org

5. The South Scandinavian Missing Links Distance between Sealand and the European continent indicated as time Source: The European Round Table of Industrialists 1989

6. The South Scandinavian Links Distance between Sealand and the European continent indicated as kilometres 2000 1997/1998 2020

7. Traffic crossing the lines Great Belt Öresund Fehmarnbelt Traffic on ferries and bridges

8. Vehicles !!

9. Great Belt (1997/1998) Domestic air traffic reduced with 33 % Railroad traffic boosted Danish logistics change Day-tourism: increase Ferry towns loose activity – but compensation

10. Öresund (2000) Crosspoint: enforcement Centrality: metropolitan competition Integration - economy of scale New mass = new specialisation A new metropolitan region: Pre-bridge Post-bridge

11. Fehmarnbelt

12. Fehmarnbelt Link: Status 2011 • What we know! • Infrastructural investments • Fixed link. Price: 4,5 billion Euros • Direct + indirect jobs 30.000-60.000 man years • Denmark: railroad electrification and renewal (double track) • Copenhagen to tunnel • Minus: Storstrømmen • Germany: Motorway from German network (Heiligenhafen West) to tunnel • Minus: Fehmarnsund • Railroad: Lübeck – Tunnel. Ready 2027 • Minus : Fehmarnsund • Travel time • Copenhagen – Hamburg: from 4½ to 3 hours = 33 % improvement • Rødby – Puttgarten: from 60 to 10 minutes = 500 % improvement

13. Danish tunnel: expectations: • Planned, financed, built and operated by Femern A/S (Sund & Bælt) • Economy • Planning • Aproval • Construction 2014-2020 • Operation after 2020

16. Expectedtechnicalities • Immersed tunnel under seabed • Lenght: 17,6 km. • 79 elementer: • Lenght: 217 m. • Width: 42 m. • Hight: 9 m. • Weight: 73.500 tons

17. Construction site: Rødby Havn

19. Population

20. Urban system Cities within 300 kilometres Distance from Fehmarnbelt

21. Research project • Infrastructure, logistics and traffic • The role of the cities in a • global/regional perspective • Cross border labourmarket • Cross border mobility • Business clusters • The scientificworld: Centres, networks, developmentopportunities • The potential effects of the fixed link • on real estate prices • The culturalsector • Values and attitudes, knowledgeabout • ”the other side”

22. Cross border labour market

23. Cross border labour market • Incentives for mobility come from differences across regions! • Barriers for mobility: • Geographical distance, land-sea border • Administrative barriers, recognition of degrees and qualifications • Language, cultural and mental differences • Lack of information • Advantage of labour market integration: • Easier handling of market fluctuations • Better matching of qualifications • Larger supply of labour force • More opportunities for the job-seekers • Knowledge transfer • Ways to remove barriers: • Solution strategies (rules harmonization) • Information and advice

24. Commuting across Fehmarnbelt 2020

26. Recommendations: • Cross border interaction/mobility incentives • Promotion of language training • Lobby for recognition and approval of qualifications and certificates • Consulting activity upgrade. • Example: Femarnbelt Büro. Model: Grænse-Grenze • The information challenge: Dramatic upgrade of activity. • Example: Femern Belt Direct • People to people programmes: schools, culture, partnerships • Organisation to organisation programmes: exchange, learning, • mutual programmes • Barrier analysis (Syddansk Universitet, Universität Kiel 2006) to be • updated and renewed • INTERREG policy advancement • Establishment of political initiated structures: organising capacity • Toll on fixed link: Lobby for very low fees for frequent travelers • Cross-border cluster policy and engagement. • Model: Øresund Science Region A ”real” border region = new economy of scale advantages!

27. Regions near Fehmarnbelt

28. Fehmarnbelt neighbouring regions Summary: potential regional change post fixed link • Lolland-Falster • North-east Schleswig-Holstein • The Copenhagen-Hamburg corridor • Minus - lose employment when: • Ferries terminate • Tunnelbuilding finishes • Plus: • Construction period employment • Construction period: increasing interaction and cooperation • Real border region • Potential mobilisation effects: demand for national active • Increase in real estate values • TGV-train: dramatic increase in real estate values – hot spots • Increasing competitiveness in the CPH-HAM corridor • Advantage for centres located in the corridor (lift in status) • New localization pattern: tourism, clusters • Corridor competitiveness boost

29. The large cities

30. Metropoles • Economic power • Center for: • Finance • Culture, entertainment • Services, commerce • Knowledge • Creativity • Node • Transport • Communication • Size, for example measured as: • Population • Income • Product • Interaction • Accessibility • Quality

31. Metropolitan functions After: Bundesinstitut für Bau-, Stadt- und Raumforschung, 2011

32. Metropolitan Europe

33. Metropolitan Europe

34. Typology of metropoles European Union ESPON documentation BBR 2006, Project 1.1-1

35. The large centres Summary: potential regional change Post fixed link • Copenhagen/Öresund-city • Hamburg • Lübeck • Kiel • Rostock • New dynamics: • Crosspoint location enforcement • European high speed railroad system • International metropolitan competition • Metropolitan cooperation: Hamburg-Öresund City • clusters, research, culture

36. Infrastructure: Growth factors • Accessibility • Cross point localisation • Centrality • Hinterland • General competition between cities and regions • Synergy – advantage of scale • Border crossing integration • Accessibility to specialisations on ”the other side” • Utilisation of resources in one system • New mass: further specialisation • Public relations • Optimism

37. Regional setup Pre- and post fixed Fehmarnbelt link

38. Border Center Center Periphery Periphery Center - center interaction

39. ”Real” border region Center Center Center - center interaction Border

40. Strategic goal: • New North European powerhouse based on new infrastructureand • newinternal networks

41. Fehmarnbelt region survey • 1000 persons age 18-20 years • Topics covered: • Values and attitudes in general • Attitudes towards the labor market • The future society and politics • Environmental issues • Housing and culture • Interactions between the countries • Consequences of the fixed Fehmern Belt Link

42. Findings: • No differences between the youths in the three countries with respect to: • General values: post-materialistic value profiles • Attitudes towards the labor market, housing, culture and politics • The dividing line with respect to these issues runs between the sexes • and not between countries • Difference in the environmental perspective: • Swedish youths are for market solutions • German youths would prefer laws and regulations • Danish youths mean that this issue is • characterized by unnecessary alarms • Asymmetry in the knowledge of the respective neighbor countries: • Danish and Swedish youth knows more about Germany • than the other way around • German youth have some knowledge about Copenhagen • Swedish youth have good knowledge about Copenhagen • Danish and Swedish youth knows very little about Hamburg

44. Recommendations • Policy for updating the knowledge Danes, Germans and Swedes • have about each other • Especially Danish and Swedish knowledge about Northern Germany • is low • Marketing activities must be set in motion! • General recommendation • Take action to achieve a bi-national institution with links to the large centres: • university unit

46. Thankyou