Philosophy 148

1. Philosophy 148 Explanations

2. Causal Reasoning • Not all conditionals indicate causal relationships, but for those that do, we have a number of evaluative standards by which we can reject certain causal claims.

3. The Sufficient Condition Test • Some feature F is a sufficient condition for having feature G if and only if anything that has feature F also has feature G • So, any candidate that is present when G is absent is eliminated as a possible sufficient condition of G

4. The Necessary Condition Test • Any candidate that is absent when G is present is eliminated as a possible necessary condition of G.

5. Correlation • Remember, correlation IS NOT causation, it merely indicates evidence of a possible causal relationship. • Once we determine the explanation for the correlation, that explanation is the causal factor. • Once one thing is correlated with another, there are four logical possibilities: • A is the cause of B • B is the cause of A • Some third things causes both • The correlation is simply coincidence

6. Some Assumptions: • Causal reasoning of this kind will only be applicable to “normal” circumstances. • Our tests must examine all and only relevant features, relevance to be determined by our background of beliefs. (this is one more reason why basic scientific literacy is crucially important.)

7. Concomitant Variation • Some features of the world are more or less permanent, so we run into problems with the NCT and SCT because all conditions are sufficient for these features and these features appear necessary for everything. • We solve this by applying the principle of concomitant variation, that is, we determine if a suspected cause and its suspected effect vary in proportion with one another. Another way of stating this is that we check for correlation between the two factors.

8. Inferences to the Best Explanation. • Technically, this is known as Abductive reasoning, but we’ll let that slide. • A hypothesis gains support if it accords with our background beliefs and works better than any competing explanation. • On the next slide is a set of standards by which we evaluate IBEs. Many of these standards will be reused on other aspects of inductive reasoning.

9. The Criteria of Adequacy A good Theory or explanation has the following features: Testable: can be shown to be true or false Wide Scope: The more phenomena the theory can explain the better Fruitfulness: The theory is successful at predicting other phenomena Simplicity: makes few assumptions Conservatism: requires less revision of important beliefs

10. Book Feature • The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, by Thomas Kuhn • Concerns just how and why we hold onto powerful explanations • A truly revolutionary look at science