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Elham Rahmani [1 ] Dr.Abdolmajid Liaghat [1] – Prof.Ali Khalili [1]

The quantitative survey of drought effects on the barley yield in Eastern Azarbayjan by classical statistical ways. Elham Rahmani [1 ] Dr.Abdolmajid Liaghat [1] – Prof.Ali Khalili [1] [1] Irr. & Reclam. Eng. Faculty, Agro meteorology Department, university of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

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Elham Rahmani [1 ] Dr.Abdolmajid Liaghat [1] – Prof.Ali Khalili [1]

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  1. The quantitative survey of drought effects on the barley yield in Eastern Azarbayjanby classical statistical ways Elham Rahmani[1] Dr.Abdolmajid Liaghat[1]– Prof.Ali Khalili[1] [1] Irr. & Reclam. Eng. Faculty, Agro meteorology Department, university of Tehran, Tehran, Iran 10th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology (10IMSC)

  2. Introduction • The main drought definition is the lack of gaining water in specific period of time and in a distinct region. • Drought causes extensive damages to agricultural products. • Rainfall has the major part in all definitions of drought indexes. • The climatic parameters are usually used for estimating crop products and predicting agricultural droughts .

  3. Objective In this research , the attempt is to define different models that relate drought indexes and climatic parameters combinatory on crop yield, using classical (regression)methods.

  4. Methodology • To develop regression models, different climatic parameters and drought indexes were used to relate them with crop yield. • Data were collected from north east of Iran, Tabriz and Miane synoptic stations.

  5. Tabriz Miane

  6. Tmean Tmin Tmax P T>=10 Climatic Parameters E RH Wind F Sunshine Climatic Parameters

  7. PNPI Ih SIAP Md HT Drought Indexes SPI 3,6,9,12,24 K RAI Drought Indexes

  8. Estimated Drought Indexes • The Percentage of Normal Precipitation Index (PNPI) • Standard Index of Annual Precipitation (SIAP) • Converted Selenianov Hydrothermal Index (HT) • Nguyen Index (k) • Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) • Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) • Shashko Moisture Drought Index (MD) • Transeau Index (Ih)

  9. Normality & Correlation Tests Mutual effect by means of Pierson correlation coefficient & P-value Parameters & Indexes Normality

  10. Single and Multivariate Regression Models

  11. single models

  12. single models

  13. Multivariate models

  14. CallingRegression Models

  15. Evaluation of Model function indexes

  16. The values of R , RMSE and MBE for models

  17. Ranking Models

  18. Conclusion • The best multivariate regression model includes P,wind, Sunshine, t>=10, K • Among the drought indexes studied in this research, RAI, Ih, SPI24, K are the most effective ones on the crop yield estimation. • The multiple models include the combination of climatic parameters & drought indexes together are better for crop yield prediction. • To predict the yield of products, multiple models are better than simple models.

  19. Thanks for your kind attention

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