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The Making of the Drought Monitor

The Making of the Drought Monitor. The U.S. Drought Monitor. Since 1999, NOAA/CPC and NCDC, USDA, and the NDMC have produced a composite drought map--the Drought Monitor—each week with input from numerous federal and non-federal agencies. The Drought Monitor Concept.

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The Making of the Drought Monitor

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  1. The Making of the Drought Monitor

  2. The U.S. Drought Monitor Since 1999, NOAA/CPC and NCDC, USDA, and the NDMC have produced a composite drought map--the Drought Monitor—each week with input from numerous federal and non-federal agencies

  3. The Drought Monitor Concept • A partnership between the NDMC, USDA and NOAA’s CPC and NCDC • Incorporate relevant information and products from all entities (and levels of government) dealing with drought (RCC’s, SC’s, federal/state agencies, etc.) • The Drought Monitor is updatedweekly and provides a general up-to-date summary of current drought conditions across the 50 states and Puerto Rico

  4. The Drought Monitor Concept • A consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive national drought map • The intent is to provide an assessment product NOT a forecast ! • Trying to capture these characteristics: • the drought’s magnitude (duration + intensity) • spatial extent • probability of occurrence • impacts

  5. The Drought Monitor— A new way of looking at drought in the U.S. • Integratesdaily rainfall reports from thousands of stations • Rates drought intensity by percentile ranks • Uses weekly feedback from local experts to reflect impacts and for “ground truthing” the product

  6. Original Objectives • “Fujita-like” scale

  7. U.S. Drought Monitor Map Drought Intensity Categories D0 Abnormally Dry D1 Drought – Moderate D2 Drought – Severe D3 Drought – Extreme D4 Drought – Exceptional

  8. Original Objectives • “Fujita-like” scale • Identify impacts (A, W, F)

  9. Original Objectives • “Fujita-like” scale • Identify impacts (A, W, F) • Assessment of current conditions—NOT a forecast!

  10. Original Objectives • “Fujita-like” scale • Identify impacts (A, W, F) • Assessment of current conditions—NOT a forecast! • A general assessment—not intended to capture all local details

  11. Original Objectives • “Fujita-like” scale • Identify impacts (A, W, F) • Assessment of current conditions—NOT a forecast! • A general assessment—no local details • Incorporates local expert input

  12. Monitor Development Monday • Draft map sent to local experts Tuesday • Local expert feedback • Draft map sent to local experts • Draft text sent to local experts Wednesday • Local expert feedback • Final map and text sent to local experts Thursday • Map and text released to public on website

  13. Original Objectives • “Fujita-like” scale • Identify impacts (A, W, F) • Assessment of current conditions—NOT a forecast! • A general assessment—no local details • Local expert input • As objective as possible

  14. Creating the Drought Monitor (http://enso.unl.edu/monitor/) • Interagency • Partners: • NWS/CPC • USDA/JAWF • NDMC • Outside Experts: • USGS • State Climos • RCCs • NWS Hydros Posted on the Internet every Thursday morning Newspapers TV Stations Government officials Public

  15. Principal Drought Monitor Inputs CPC Daily Soil Model USGS Streamflow Palmer Drought Index 30-day Precip. USDA Soil Ratings Satellite Veg Health

  16. USGS StreamflowApril19, 2002

  17. Drought Severity Classification

  18. Blending it all together…the Objective Blend of Drought Indicators (OBDI)

  19. Current Operational OBDI • First attempt at operationally integrating multiple indicators in an • automated weekly update using a • percentile ranking method • Combines and weights the 30-day precipitation (1/6), the Modified Palmer Drought Index (5/12), and the CPC Soil Moisture (5/12)

  20. A New Breed of Experimental Blends “The Short, Long, and Unified of It”

  21. The New Blends • Produced weekly using CPC’s real- time daily and weekly climate division data and NCDC’s monthly archive of indices for 1932-2000 • All parameters are first rendered as percentiles w/ respect to 1932-2000 data using a percent rank method

  22. Indices used in the Blends and their Weights: • Short-term Blend:35% Palmer-derived Z-index; 25% 3-month precipitation; 20% 1-month precipitation; 13% CPC soil moisture model; and 7% Palmer (Modified) Drought Index • Long-term Blend:30% Palmer Hydrologic Index; 20% 12-month precip; 15% 6-month precip; 10% Palmer (Modified); 10% 24-month precip; 10% 60-month precip; and 5% CPC Soil Model

  23. The New Blends • Unified Blend: the “raw” Unified blend is the average of the short- and long-term blends • The “finished” Unified product plots the percentile of the current “raw” values relative to the 1932-2000 distribution of monthly values archived at NCDC • URL: • http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/experimental/edb/access.html

  24. Next Steps • Support and utilize the development of a western • Implement the new blend products into the process SWSI tool • Incorporate USDA soil measurements (SCAN) • Incorporate USGS groundwater data as real-time data become available • Efforts underway to take daily climate data from NOAA’s Cooperative Network to produce a regional/national coverage of station-based SPI maps on a weekly basis (http://nadss.unl.edu)

  25. The Latest Weekly Assessment From the United States Drought Monitor The Latest Seasonal Outlook • Seasonal Outlooks • Drought Data • Soil Moisture Data • Precipitation and Temperature Data Publication of the web team, Climate Prediction Center.Last Updated: 04/18/2002 www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov “Drought Assessment”

  26. White House Drought Briefing August 11, 1999

  27. - Medium-Range Forecasts of T & P - 2-wk Soil Model Forecast (MRF) - 2-wk COLA Soil Model Forecast - 6-wk Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) Soil Model Forecasts Short-term Tools

  28. Long-term Tools - CPC Long-Lead Outlooks of T and P - ECPC Monthly Soil Model Forecasts - PDI 4-Month Probability Projections - Soil Moisture Model ENSO Composites - Constructed Analogue Soil (CAS) Model Seasonal Forecasts - Correlations/Composites from PDO, Pacific Warm Pool, QBO, NAO, etc.

  29. Main Features of Outlooks • Show changes over next 3 ½ months for large-scale drought areas • Initial areas based on schematic of Drought Monitor D1 areas • Verification criteria based on one-category change in Drought Monitor at end of forecast period • Map colors: green for improvement; brown for no change; hatched for mixed outlook; yellow for expanding drought

  30. MRF-Based 2-Week Soil Moisture Forecast

  31. Seasonal CAS Soil Moisture Outlooks

  32. El Nino Soil Moisture Composite for October

  33. Status of PDO, ENSO, andother patternsmonitored

  34. Future Plans • Create online archive of past outlook maps • Add a technical discussion of reasoning behind the outlook • Continue research on factors related to drought • Create multiple regression drought forecast models

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