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Lower Lakes and Murray River Modelling (Virtual Weir Presentation / Discussion)

Lower Lakes and Murray River Modelling (Virtual Weir Presentation / Discussion). Canberra 11 February 2009. To be Discussed. Existing Modelling: RMA (2D) and ELCOM (3D) Modelling of Virtual and Partial Weir Simulations Model Setup Model Validation Model Results & Animations

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Lower Lakes and Murray River Modelling (Virtual Weir Presentation / Discussion)

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  1. Lower Lakes and Murray River Modelling(Virtual Weir Presentation / Discussion) Canberra 11 February 2009

  2. To be Discussed • Existing Modelling: • RMA (2D) and ELCOM (3D) Modelling of Virtual and Partial Weir Simulations • Model Setup • Model Validation • Model Results & Animations • Model Uncertainty • Empirical Calculations: • Destratification / Richardson Number Calculations • Seiche Volumes

  3. Model Setup/Extents • RMA 2D (Blue) : All areas upstream of Tidal Barrages & Downstream of Lock 1, Lake Albert disconnected • ELCOM 3D (Green) : From Pomanda Island (upstream of weir location) to Murray Bridge • RMA simulation executed first, then results fed to ELCOM (U/S & D/S Boundaries)

  4. Model Validation • Validation period 1/1/2008 – 14/7/2008 • Objectives: • Best match observed hydrodynamics (WL) and salinity • Ensure key processes appropriately represented • Understanding of model uncertainty • Key Uncertainties • Additional salt load along length of River • Additional irrigation demands / groundwater losses?

  5. Predicted Water Levels – Poltalloch Plains

  6. Predicted River Salinity – Woods Point

  7. Predicted Lake Salinity – Spatial Validation

  8. Predicted Lake Salinity – Spatial Validation

  9. Predicted 3D River Salinity – Wellington

  10. Predicted 3D River Temperature – Wellington

  11. Comparison Measured vs Modelled River Salinity

  12. 2 yr “Prognostic Simulations” • Examining what may happen in the future, given continuing high net evaporation (1982) levels, and variations in the South Australia’s border allocation (Border Allocations of 696, 796 and 896 GL/yr), through to the end of 2010. • Simulations aimed at maintaining Lake Level at -1.3mAHD. • Salt water introduced through Goolwa Barrage in October 2009. • Stop logs positioned by-monthly based on water level balance calculation.

  13. Predicted Water Levels – Lake Alexandrina

  14. Timeseries Locations – Lake Alexandrina

  15. Predicted Lake (2D) Salinities – Point 1

  16. Predicted Lake (2D) Salinities – Point 5

  17. Predicted Lake (2D) Salinities – Point 6

  18. Predicted River (3D) Salinities – Wellington

  19. Predicted River (3D) Salinities – Tailem Bend

  20. Predicted River (3D) Salinities – Swanport

  21. Animation: Lower Lakes 696 GL/yr

  22. Animation: Lower Lakes 696 GL/yr

  23. Animation: River (696 GL/yr)

  24. Animation: River (696 GL/yr)

  25. Animation: River (796 GL/yr)

  26. Animation: River (796 GL/yr)

  27. Animation: River (896 GL/yr)

  28. Animation: River (896 GL/yr)

  29. Comparison at End 2010 696 GL/yr 796 GL/yr 896 GL/yr

  30. Uncertainty • Model can still be improved • Validation only currently till Mid July 2008 (no destratification period) • No validation data for low level and high salt available • Uses 1 year (2007) wind (cannot predict future wind conditions) • Wind spatially homogenous

  31. Partial Closure Weir Simulations • No Weir • 1100m Gap • 700m Gap • 300m Gap • 100m Gap

  32. Simulated Water Level in Lake Alexandrina

  33. Simulated Salinity (ppt) Wellington Bed

  34. Pomanda Island Lake Alexandrina N River Channel Pomanda Embayment Bathymetry

  35. Other Info

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