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RICE PRODUCTION IN GHANA: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE. DRIVING FORCES AND REQUIRED ACTIONS

RICE PRODUCTION IN GHANA: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE. DRIVING FORCES AND REQUIRED ACTIONS. BOANSI DAVID. RICE, FOOD FOR THE PEOPLE RICE, SOURCE OF LIVELIHOOD THROUGH PRODUCTION & MARKETING RICE AS A POLITICAL CROP IN GHANA AND MOST WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES. BACKGROUND.

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RICE PRODUCTION IN GHANA: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE. DRIVING FORCES AND REQUIRED ACTIONS

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  1. RICE PRODUCTION IN GHANA: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE.DRIVING FORCES AND REQUIRED ACTIONS BOANSI DAVID

  2. RICE, FOOD FOR THE PEOPLE • RICE, SOURCE OF LIVELIHOOD THROUGH PRODUCTION & MARKETING • RICE AS A POLITICAL CROP IN GHANA AND MOST WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES BACKGROUND

  3. CHANGING CONSUMER PREFERENCES: INCREASING CONSUMPTION • PRODUCTION LESS THAN 40% OF DEMAND AND NATIONAL SUPPLY (Olaf and Emmanuel, 2009; Lançon and Hélène, 2007) • INFLUX OF IMPORTED RICE, HIGH PRICES OF IMPORTED AGRICULTURAL INPUTS ⇒ NEGATIVE RETURNS ⇒ 66% OF RICE PRODUCERS (FAO, 2006) • DRIFT FROM RICE PRODUCTION; LIMITED REPLACEMENT FOR AGING FARMERS ⇒ EXPOSURE OF GHANA TO SHOCKS ON WORLD MARKET MOTIVATION/PROBLEM STATEMENT IRREGULAR SUPPLY OF LOCAL RICE LOW QUALITY

  4. OBJECTIVETO IDENTIFY AND MEASURE THE MAGNITUDE OF EFFECT OF THE KEY ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF LOCAL RICE PRODUCTION IN GHANA • PERFORMANCE IN MEETING SUPPLY AND DEMAND • ASSESS DEVELOPMENTS IN PADDY PRODUCTION, HARVESTED AREA AND YIELD • ESTIMATION OF LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIPS (COINTEGRATING REGRESSION –FMOLS) • ESTIMATION OF SHORT-RUN EFFECTS (ERROR CORRECTION MODEL)

  5. RICE PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY IN GHANA, 1961-2012

  6. RICE SELF-SUFFICIENCY FOR GHANA, 1961-2009

  7. TRENDS DEVELOPMENTS IN RICE PRODUCTION : TRENDS RICE PLANNING

  8. RICE PLANNING

  9. Output =AREA * YIELD

  10. RICE MARKET STRUCTURE

  11. DATA AND METHODS ⇒METHODOLOGY VARIABLES: DEPENDENT VARIABLE INDEPENDENT VARIABLES *TOTAL PADDY OUTPUT *HARVESTED RICE AREA *YIELD *REAL PRODUCER PRICE OF RICE *REAL PRODUCER PRICE OF MAIZE * WORLD PRICE OF UREA FERTILIZER (P) *IRRIGATED AGRICULTURAL AREA (P) *AGRICULTURAL LABOUR FORCE (P)

  12. HYPOTHESIS Log TPOt =β0 + β1 Log HAt-1 + β2 LogYt-1 + β3 Log RPPRt-1+ β4 Log RPPMt-1+ β5 Log PUFt + β6 LogIRAt + β7 Log ALt + µt Hypothesis: β1, β2, β3, β6, β7 > 0; β4, β5 <0; MODELS * COINTEGRATING REGRESSION: LONG-RUN EFFECTS ESTIMATOR : FULLY MODIFIED ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES * ERROR CORRECTION MODEL: SHORT-RUN EFFECTS AND S.O.A.O.S

  13. DATA PREPARATION GROUP TEST FOR NORMALITY

  14. UNIT ROOT TEST AT LEVEL

  15. UNIT ROOT TEST AT FIRST DIFFERENCE

  16. MODELS AND RESULTS MODEL 1 COINTEGRATING REGRESSION Log TPOt =β0 + β1 Log HAt-1 + β2 LogYt-1 + β3 Log PUFt+ β4 LogIRAt + β5 Log ALt + µt Hypothesis: β1, β2, β4, β5 > 0 : β3 < 0 RESULTS

  17. TEST FOR COINTEGRATION AND NORMALITY OF RESIDUAL

  18. MODEL 2 ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

  19. REFERENCES Olaf, K. and Emmanuel, D. (2009). Global Food Security Response: Ghana Rice Study. Attachment I to the Global Food Security Response West African Rice Value Chain Analysis. microREPORT#156, USAID LanÇon, F. and Hélène, D.B. (2007). Rice imports in West Africa: trade regimes and food policy formulation. Poster prepared for presentation at the 106th Seminar of the EAAE. Pro-poor development in low income countries. Food, agriculture, trade and environment. 25-27 October 2007-Montpellier France FAO (2006). Briefs on Import Surges –Countries. No. 5, Ghana: rice, poultry and tomato paste. November 2006. Commodities and Trade Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy. ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/009/ah628e/ah628e00.pdf

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