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AN INCONVENIENT REALITY

AN INCONVENIENT REALITY. Workforce Preparation Challenges Facing Hawai`i October 5, 2007. Hawai`i’s Changing Economy. Major shifts in the world and U.S. economies have had a substantial impact in Hawai`i.

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AN INCONVENIENT REALITY

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  1. AN INCONVENIENT REALITY Workforce Preparation Challenges Facing Hawai`i October 5, 2007

  2. Hawai`i’s Changing Economy • Major shifts in the world and U.S. economies have had a substantial impact in Hawai`i. • These shifts have had a dramatic affect on the type of jobs, the level of personal income, and the quality of life.

  3. Hawai`i Employment by Industry - 1962 State government County government 3% 6% Federal civilian Agriculture 10% 5% Construction 6% Federal military Manufacturing 23% 10% Transportation Other services 4% 6% Communication Business services 1% 1% Utilities Health services 1% 2% Wholesale Hotel services Retail 5% Finance 2% 12% Real estate Source: P. Brewbaker, BOH, Aug. 02 Insurance 2% 2% 1%

  4. Hawai`i Employment by Industry - 2006

  5. We Have Developing Opportunities, Will We Have the Workforce?

  6. The Worker Supply Gap An Insufficient Number of Qualified Workers

  7. We Need to Fill 28,000 Jobs Annually Source: EMSI June 2007

  8. Most Require Education Beyond HS Source: EMSI June 2007

  9. Hawaii’s Growing Innovation Sector STEM Jobs Comprise nearly 10% of the Total Jobs in the State Source: EMSI June 2007

  10. HS Graduates Supply Less Than 1/2 of the 28,000 Annual Jobs to Fill Source: WICHE High School Graduate Projections

  11. We Need to be Ready to Replace Skilled People in Critical Jobs Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 5%PUMS Files

  12. Homes on O‘ahu—Beyond Affordable We can no longer depend on an imported workforce. $591,300** $369,400** $356,100 $128,400 * Price of an affordable home based on state’s median household income, average mortgage rate, and a 30-year mortgage with 20% down. ** Projected ** Source: The Honolulu Advertiser, University of Hawaii economist Carl Bonham

  13. 806 607 1,151 -5,778 -2,132 -11,761 -819 -1,787 2,108 -1,962 1,187 603 2,301 -20,078 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 -25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 We are Exporting the Experienced Core of Our WorkforceHawaii Net Migration by Degree Level and Age Group 22- to 29-Year-Olds 30- to 64-Year-Olds Less than High School High School Some College Associate Bachelor’s Graduate/Professional Total Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 5% Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) Files

  14. We Can Expect Continued Difficulty in Filling Job Vacancies Well Into the FutureProjected Change in Population by Age Group, 2000 to 2020 Age: <15 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Projections

  15. Unemployment Rates—Hawaii and U.S., 1995-2006 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  16. We Need to Increase the Rate of Participation in the WorkforcePercent of Civilian Population Participating in the Workforce, 2004 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  17. Percent of Population Age 16 and Older Participating in the Workforce, 2004 Honolulu Kauai 66 .6% to 66 .9% Maui 60 .6% to 66 .6% 58 .0% to 60 .6% 39 .4% to 58 .0% Hawaii Hawaii = 64.7% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  18. In Civilian Workforce Not in Civilian Workforce NumberPercentNumberPercent Less than High School High School Diploma or GED Some College, No Degree Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree 34,623 63.8 19,658 36.2 144,239 75.4 46,967 24.6 104,974 78.1 29,469 21.9 55,994 81.1 13,074 18.9 111,765 83.9 21,485 16.1 53,100 84.5 9,724 15.5 An Individual’s Level of Education is Directly Related to Their Ability to Participate in the WorkforceHawaii Civilians Age 25-64 in the Workforce by Education Attainment, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File

  19. The Worker Preparation Gap An Insufficient Number of People with Needed Skills

  20. Iowa Utah Ohio Idaho Texas Maine Illinois Hawaii Alaska Florida Indiana Kansas Virginia Oregon Arizona Nevada Georgia Missouri Vermont Montana Alabama Michigan Colorado Kentucky Maryland Arkansas Wyoming Delaware California Louisiana Nebraska New York Wisconsin Oklahoma Minnesota Mississippi Tennessee New Jersey Washington Connecticut New Mexico West Virginia North Dakota Rhode Island Pennsylvania United States South Dakota North Carolina South Carolina Massachusetts New Hampshire A Lack of Investment Has Resulted in Shortages in Critical FieldsNumber of 2-Year Degrees and Certificates in Health Sciences Awarded (2003) Per 100 HS Graduates Three Years Earlier, 2000 Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions 2002-03; WICHE High School Graduates, 2000

  21. Utah Ohio Iowa Idaho Maine Texas Illinois Hawaii Alaska Florida Indiana Kansas Virginia Oregon Arizona Nevada Georgia Missouri Vermont Montana Alabama Michigan Colorado Maryland Kentucky Arkansas Wyoming Delaware California Nebraska Louisiana New York Wisconsin Oklahoma Minnesota Mississippi Tennessee New Jersey Connecticut Washington New Mexico North Dakota West Virginia Rhode Island Pennsylvania United States South Dakota North Carolina South Carolina Massachusetts New Hampshire Number of 4-Year Degrees in Health Sciences Awarded (2003) Per 100 High School Graduates Six Years Earlier, 2000 Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions 2002-03; WICHE High School Graduates 1997

  22. Number of 4-Year Degrees Awarded (2003) Per 100 High School Graduates Six Years Earlier, 2000 Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions 2002-03; WICHE High School Graduates, 1997

  23. 10.8 6.2 3.3 Utah Iowa Ohio Idaho Texas Maine Illinois Alaska Hawaii Florida Indiana Kansas Oregon Virginia Arizona Nevada Georgia Missouri Vermont Montana Alabama Michigan Colorado Maryland Kentucky Arkansas Wyoming California Delaware Louisiana Nebraska New York Wisconsin Oklahoma Minnesota Mississippi Tennessee New Jersey Washington Connecticut New Mexico Rhode Island North Dakota West Virginia Pennsylvania United States South Dakota North Carolina South Carolina Massachusetts New Hampshire As Experienced Workers Leave the Workforce,We Need to Get More Incumbent Workers to Enroll in Further EducationPart-Time Undergraduate Enrollment as a % of Population Age 25-44, 2000 5.2 Source: NCES-IPEDS, U.S. Census Bureau

  24. Education Pipeline Performance An Insufficient Number of Individuals Prepared for Further Education or Training

  25. Key Transition Points in the Education to Work Pipeline • Complete High School • Enter College • Finish College • Enter the Workplace

  26. Student Pipeline—2004 Of 100 9th Graders, How Many… Source: NCES Common Core Data, NCES IPEDS 2004 Residence and Migration Survey, NCEC IPEDS 2004 Fall Enrollment Survey and Graduation Rate Survey

  27. UH Community Colleges’ Entering Student Placement

  28. HAWAII

  29. Hawaii’s underperformance in educating its young population could limit the state’s access to a competitive workforce and weaken its economy over time. As the well-educated baby boomer generation begins to retire, the young population that will replace it does not appear prepared educationally to maintain or enhance the state’s position in a global economy. Hawaii continues to fall behind in graduating 9th graders from high school within four years and enrolling them in college by age 19—and these rates have dropped by double digits since the early 1990s.

  30. Source: The National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education

  31. Source: The National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education

  32. Eighth graders in Hawaii perform very poorly on national assessments in math, science, reading, and writing, indicating that they are not well prepared to succeed in challenging high school courses. Hawaii is among the lowest-performing states in science and reading. • Low-income 8th graders perform very poorly on national assessments in math.

  33. To Sum Up • We are a top state when we measure rate of HS graduation. • We are far behind, however, when we look at actual student performance in skills critical to success in post-secondary education and the new jobs in our economy. • Despite improvement, Hawaii lags many other states in preparing students to succeed in college.

  34. There are consequences.

  35. Hawaii is almost 30 percentage points below the national benchmark in workforce preparation as reflected in professional licensure examinations. • Hawaii also ranks more than 35 percentage points below the national benchmark in preparing students for graduate study. • Hawaii is about 15% below the national benchmark with respect to pass rates on the state’s teacher examinations.

  36. HAWAII CHALLENGE: Raise Achievement and Close Gaps Hawaii Education Summit August, 2007

  37. Let’s take a closer look at our 15 year olds.

  38. 2003: U.S. Ranked 24th out of 29 OECD Countries in Mathematics Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results, data available at http://www.oecd.org/

  39. Problems are not limited to our high-poverty and high-minority schools . . .

  40. U.S. Ranks Low in the Percent of Students in the Highest Achievement Level (Level 6) in Math Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results, data available at http://www.oecd.org/

  41. U.S. Ranks 23rd out of 29 OECD Countries in the Math Achievement of the Highest-Performing Students* * Students at the 95th Percentile Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results, data available at http://www.oecd.org/

  42. U.S. Ranks 23rd out of 29OECD Countries in the Math Achievement of High-SES Students Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results, data available at http://www.oecd.org/

  43. Problems not limited to math, either.

  44. PISA 2003: Problem-Solving, US Ranks 24th Out of 29 OECD Countries Source: NCES, 2005, International Outcomes of Learning in Mathematics, Literacy and Problem Solving: 2003 PISA Results. NCES 2005-003

  45. More than half of our 15 year olds at problem-solving level 1 or below. Source: OECD Problem Solving for Tomorrow’s World. 2004

  46. Where is Hawaiiin All of This?

  47. Hawaii: State Math Results Grade 4, 2007

  48. Hawaii: State Math Results Grade 8, 2007

  49. Hawaii 10th Grade Math: Students “Well Below”

  50. Loss at the Top: Math

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