Prof Jan Van Dijk Household Security and European Trends in Burglary Copenhagen, March 20, 2013

1. Prof Jan Van DijkHousehold Security and European Trends in Burglary Copenhagen, March 20, 2013

2. “An open door may tempt a saint”

3. Burglary victimization rate, ICVS 2005

4. Trends in rates of victimization by burglary in five european countries (national surveys)

5. The Danish exception Over the past ten years household burglaries have been decreasing across the Western world according to police records and surveys But not in Denmark ! The Danish rate of police-recorded burglaries of 1.939 per 100.000 in 2009 is the highest rate ever recorded by UNODC anywhere in the world

6. The crime boom and bust cycle Van Dijk (2008)’

7. Diagnosing the Danish exception Most Western countries have by 2005 come full circle: greater opportunities led to higher burglary rates, led to more fear of burglary, led to improved security, led to reduced opportunities, led to lower burglary rates (led to reduced fear……..). Hypothesis: In Denmark the spontaneous feedback loop of improved security has been relatively slow

8. % of public thinking a burglary in their house in the coming year is likely

9. Risk assessment of the public and actual victimization rates in 2004

10. Not a Care in the World Considering the actual burglary risks in Denmark, concern about burglary should have been two times more common than it is. Lack of concern prevents Danish households from investing in their security?

11. % households with security locks

12. LEVELS OF HOME SECURITY IN EIGHT WESTERN NATIONS in 2004

13. Rates of home security in 2004 and burglary victimization trends between 2004 and 2010 in eight countries

14. Levels of household security in 2004 (high grade locks and alarms) and changes in burglary rates between 2004 and 2010

15. The crime and security loops

16. Trends in the use of burglar alarms and trends in burglary vicimization since 1992 by income quartiles in twelve Western nations (ICVS 1989-2005)percentages secured percentages victimised

17. Policy interventions Why are Dutch houses the best secured in Europe ? Regulatory securitization: 1. Security certification since 1990 promoted by police (PolitieKeurmerk) 2. Mandatory security standards incorporated in national Building Code in 1999

18. Security certification of housing situation At the initiative of the police both existing and newly built houses can be certified, looking at: • Urban environment (recreational facilities, routing) • Immediate environment (lightening) • Building (preferably not more than 5 levels, surveillance) • Dwelling (security locks, fire alarms)

19. Effectiveness • More than 500.000 housing units have been certified (50.000 per year) • Burglary risk per unit was reduced by 90% Source: De Effectiviteit van het PKVW, DSP Group, 2004 • Reduced fear of burglary • Reduced insurance premiums

20. Change in building regulations in the Netherlands in 1999 • All new-built homes must have burglary-proof windows and doors, regardless of their vulnerability

21. Natural experiment in regulation of built-in security Transition period Homes built underold Building Code Homes built under new Building Code Homes meeting new regulations (%) COMPARE Year of construction of the home

22. The impact of mandatory security on domestic burglary in NL; source: Vollaard & Van Ours, 2010

23. Benefits outweigh costs • Benefits over lifespan of home: €560 p/h (less losses , less expenses for police etcetera) • Costs of measures+ enforcement: €430 p/h • Benefits far exceed the costs • A country which introduces mandatory security standards increases its welfare • Such country will also reduce widening security gap between income groups

24. A lesson for Denmark? • Security feedback loop in Denmark is falling behind • Certification and national regulation of household security is indicated • It would be even more cost effective than in NL because of higher burglary rates