III Conferencia Cientifica do LBA Brasilia, julho 2004

1. III Conferencia Cientifica do LBA Brasilia, julho 2004 Integration Novelties: New thinking for Earth System modelling and climate adaptation and mitigation Sarah Cornell and John Schellnhuber Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (HQ), School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ UK The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils – NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI.

2. Tyndall°Centrefor Climate Change Research Our Purpose: “To research, assess and communicate from a distinct trans-disciplinary perspective, the options to mitigate and the necessities to adapt to climate change, and to integrate these insights into the global, UK and local contexts of sustainable development.”

3. Advancing the science of integration • Developing responses • Motivating society

4. TyndallResearch Themes • Integrating Frameworks • Decarbonising Modern Societies • Adapting to Climate Change • Sustaining the Coastal Zone

5. Interactive Integrated Assessment Process (IIAP) Interface I Interface II Demander Surveyor IIAP OPERATOR Scientific Community Knowledge Space Stakeholders Problem Space Composer Responder Rachel Warren, Jonathan Köhler, Alex Haxeltine, John Turnpenny & Tim O’Riordan

6. IIAP Aurion Project Modular Multi-Purpose Integrated Assessment System softIAM Framework Stakeholder Organisations

7. UK: Tyndall Centre Economics module Emissions Netherlands: ICIS Health module UK: Tyndall Centre MAGICC-SCENGEN or GOLDSTEIN Climate modules Germany: Potsdam Institute ICLIPS impact tool DINAS-coast Global Ecosystem module Community Integrated Assessment Model CIAM-n • Distributed …across a community of n institutions • Flexible • Modular • Linked to interaction with a community of stakeholders

8. Climate System E3MG v3 New Tech Economy GHG Emissions MIND Famous MAGICC Land & Ocean Carbon Cycles RICE Transport Biomes (simple) Housing BC Goldstein Population Biomes (complex) Sectoral/regional damage Land use change Air Pollution Coarse (global) damage Adaptation simulation CLIMATE TOOLKIT Impacts Downscalers Health: dengue Spatial Temporal Crops Food Hydrology ?? Scengen Health: malaria Ecosystems, Biodiversity ICLIPS tool Health: heat stress UK drought algorithms Corals Extreme outcome predictors Health: respiratory DINAS-coast (sea-level rise) Migration /security Extreme event predictors

9. Regional Coastal Simulator Photo: National Trust, Joe Cornish / NTPL 093144 Climate & sea level predictions Policy options Physical states Habitat states Biodiversity Socio-economics

10. Coastal Simulator answers real-world questions Sediment supply from cliff Profile shape Cliff recession rate Sediment transport rate Shore orientation Wave conditions, sea-level rise and tide Beach volume and shape

11. Other Research Highlights • Biosequestration • CDM for sustainability

12. Other Research Highlights • Biosequestration • CDM for sustainability • Regional GHG emission inventories • Contraction and Convergence

13. Other Research Highlights • Biosequestration • CDM for sustainability • GHG emission inventories • Contraction & Convergence • A-Team: modelling ecosystems • ‘Win-wins’ in nature conservation for mitigation

14. What else is going on? Tyndall-PIK – adaptation in north-eastern Brazil

15. What else is going on? Tyndall-PIK adaptation E-Via

16. What else is going on? Tyndall-PIK – adaptation in north-eastern Brazil E-Via QUEST Quantifying and Understanding the Earth System • Contemporary coupled climate, carbon cycle and atmospheric chemistry • Earth system history and dynamics • Impacts and human dimensions of global environmental change www.nerc.ac.uk/funding/thematics/quest/ Colin.Prentice@bristol.ac.uk

17. EARTHSCIENCES Tyndall°Centrefor Climate Change Research s.cornell@uea.ac.uk www.uea.ac.uk/~e136