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Unit 2

Unit 2. Ch 6-11 Inputs to US Government. Public opinion. Shared attitudes of many people on politics, issues, etc. Measured by opinion polls Usually by professional polling companies – media & politicians pay Must be valid to be reliable. Why do politicians care?.

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Unit 2

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  1. Unit 2 Ch 6-11 Inputs to US Government

  2. Public opinion • Shared attitudes of many people on politics, issues, etc. • Measured by opinion polls • Usually by professional polling companies – media & politicians pay • Must be valid to be reliable

  3. Why do politicians care? • Public opinion = election success • Strategy – what issues to focus on • Not what to believe(usually) • Only if newly important issue – (no evidence of previous policy stance) • There is video evidence if politicians change their minds (flip-floppers!)

  4. Is this bad? • We want consistency • But we also want representation • Our opinions change over time, but we want politicians to be decisive • If they want to win, they don’t contradict public opinion

  5. 2 ideas about representatives • Delegates • Sent as mouthpieces of constituency • Follow public opinion to the letter, no conscience or judgment allowed • Trustees • Given autonomy to make decisions • Use best judgment for public interest

  6. Delegates & trustees • Difference in real life • Whatever the voters want • Politicians want to be trustees, voters want them to be delegates

  7. Reliability in polling • Polls are more reliable if: • Random & representative sample • Allows for smaller margin of error • Valid, unbiased questions & analysis

  8. Potential problems w/polls • Selection bias • People choose not to participate • Biased/leading questions • Intensity • Polls don’t always measure passion • Latency • Ideas on the “back burner”

  9. Push polls • Attempt to “push” respondents to desired result • Parties & candidates • Biased, leading questions • Try to create bandwagon effect

  10. Important opinion polls • Presidential approval rating • Most important poll in US politics • Every week since 1937 • Typical phrasing: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?"

  11. Presidential approval rating • Honeymoon period • Usually high at beginning of term • Americans give Pres a chance • Fluctuates based on policies & response to events • Always drops later when promises become disappointing reality

  12. George W. Bush • Holds record for both highest & lowest approval ratings ever • Highest – 90% Sept 2001 • Lowest – 25% Oct 2008

  13. George W. Bush

  14. Barack Obama

  15. Presidential approval rating • POTUS’s relationship w / Congress • Other party unlikely to stand up to a popular POTUS • If POTUS is unpopular – own party runs from him (esp. in an election yr)

  16. Other important polls • Campaign polls • “If the election were held today, who would win your vote?” • Problems: • What if they don’t vote? • What if they change their minds? • Reliable if likely voters asked close to election date

  17. Other important polls • Exit polls • Voters polled in the parking lot • Reliable: • Not a prediction – an actual vote • Unreliable: • Random/representative sample? • News media use this to predict results – usually very good

  18. Bad exit polls • 1980 – Reagan / Carter • NBC declared for Reagan at 8:30 EST • Did PST Dems decide not to vote? • 2000 – Bush / Gore • Florida debacle

  19. Mass Media • Media ownership • America compared to world • US: Need ratings for revenue

  20. Mass Media • Media history • Early – newspapers political • Progressive Era – crusaders • Modern – strive for impartiality

  21. Mass Media • Media bias • Reporters tend to be liberal • Any bias in reporting tends to be against incumbents • Crusading for weak against strong • Desire for interesting stories

  22. Mass Media • Media restrictions • FCC • Fairness Doctrine

  23. Mass Media • Media and politics • Don’t cover in-depth issues • Campaign events • Campaign polls (horse race)

  24. Mass Media • Media and politics • Releases & briefings • Press conferences / press secretary • Leaks – trial balloons • On/off record / backgrounders

  25. Mass Media • What limits influence of media? • Selective exposure • Avoid exposure to media that goes against your beliefs • Selective perception • Filter what you see through your own bias (hear what you want to)

  26. Mass Media • What limits influence of media? • Attentive public • Only about 30-35% of Americans pay attention to the news at all

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