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Threat assessment framework

Threat assessment framework. D Supt Alex Franklin-Smith Gordon Stovin. Emperor's new clothes Structured framework to support business planning Our methodology Promote discussion. i. ii. iii. iv. Outline of presentation. Limitations of the written report

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Threat assessment framework

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  1. Threat assessment framework D Supt Alex Franklin-Smith Gordon Stovin

  2. Emperor's new clothes Structured framework to support business planning Our methodology Promote discussion i ii iii iv Outline of presentation

  3. Limitations of the written report Relaxation of regulation / opportunity presented Three new words (threat, harm & risk) Need for a volume model Developments in the visual display of information i ii iii iv v The challenges (some of them)

  4. Scan Analyse Respond Assess i ii iii iv SARA

  5. Scan Analyse Respond Assess i ii iii iv SARA

  6. 212 threats identified and assessed From anti-social behaviour through to zombie apocalypse* Assessed in terms of Impact, Likelihood and Resonance. * well, pandemic flu!

  7. Is it art? Laugh now. but one day we’ll write the threat assessment

  8. 1. Impact Physical injuries Psychological impact Victim count Financial cost Financial impact Community impact Impact on police Likelihood Frequency Trends Under reporting Resonance Home Sec (+ other national) Local / public concern PCC plan Chief officer (inc. headline measures) 2. 3.

  9. Likelihood Impact Resonance 1. Impact Physical injuries Psychological impact Victim count Financial cost Financial impact Community impact Impact on police Likelihood Frequency Trends Under reporting Resonance Home Sec (+ other national) Local / public concern PCC plan Chief officer (inc. headline measures) 2. 3.

  10. High impact & high likelihood High risk Mispers Overnight / occupied or Asian gold burglaries Serious wounding, high risk DA & NTE violence Sexual offences (inc. acquaintance rape) PIDL Injury RTCs Most serious Hate crime Most serious ASB High impact (low likelihood) High risk acquisitive crime (inc. burglary dwelling & robbery) Most serious violence (inc. murder, manslaughter) Serious sexual offences (e.g. stranger & child rape) Most serious injury RTCs Civil contingencies and other doomsday scenarios High likelihood (low harm) Volume acquisitive crime Less violent offending Criminal damage Drugs possession Most fraud Some Hate crime Likelihood Impact Resonance No brainer! Child sexual exploitation Online child abuse High impact & high resonance High profile violence / theft Criminal use of firearms Neglect of the vulnerable Public protest Violent extremism High likelihood & high resonance Iconic crimes such as Domestic burglary Rural and business (acquisitive crime) Crime attributed to drugs or alcohol Crime committed by non UK nationals Personal robbery (inc. knife crime) ASB High resonance (but not happening here?) Includes significant intelligence gaps Cyber crime Force marriage MH-related crime

  11. Very little new in terms of threat assessments… But there are opportunities We believe we have a robust methodology And we are happy to share / collaborate. i ii iii iv Some end thoughts

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