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The Middle East since the Cold War – Week 6

The Middle East since the Cold War – Week 6. Timeline -1. Palestinian Intifada begins Iran-Iraq War ends 1990 Cold War ends Iraq Invades Kuwait Gulf War. Timeline – 2. 1991 Madrid Conference initiates Arab-Israeli peace process 1993-1995 Oslo Peace Process

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The Middle East since the Cold War – Week 6

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  1. The Middle East since the Cold War – Week 6

  2. Timeline -1 • Palestinian Intifada begins • Iran-Iraq War ends 1990 Cold War ends Iraq Invades Kuwait • Gulf War

  3. Timeline – 2 1991 Madrid Conference initiates Arab-Israeli peace process 1993-1995 Oslo Peace Process 1995 Assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin 1999 Death of King Hussein of Jordan ( succeeded by Abdullah II) 2000 Death of Syrian President Hafiz al-Assad ( succeeded by Bashar al-Assad) Camp David summit, the failure of which marks end of peace process.

  4. Yitzar Rabin,Bill Clinton, and Yasser Arafat at the Oslo Accords signing ceremony on 13 September 1993

  5. Rabin's death ends the momentum towards peace

  6. Timeline – 3 2001 9/11 terrorist bombings of US targets in New York and Washington US initiates attack on Afghanistan • US President Bush delivers ‘axis of evil’ speech. • US led war on Iraq begins ‘Roadmap’ launched for an Israel-Palestine settlement 2004 Death of Yasser Arafat

  7. Timeline-4 2005 Assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri 2006 Hamas wins in Palestinian elections Israel-Hezbollah War in Lebanon 2007 Annapolis Conferece, Maryland 2010 Start of ‘ Arab Spring’ 2011 Regime change in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen.

  8. Middle East Exceptionalism? • After end of Cold War, Middle East retains centrality. • “Exceptionalism”: Perception that the Middle East is immune to changes seen elsewhere • The Arab Spring: a new wave of democratization? Domestic & international consequences. • Factors of change (youth, communications, Islamic forces), factors of continuity (petro-politics).

  9. Applicability of “End of History” and “Clash of Civilizations” ?

  10. “ What we may be witnessing is not just the end of the Cold War, or the passing of a particular period of post-war history, but the end of history as such: that is, the end point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government.” The End of History

  11. “…The fundamental source of conflict in this new world will not be primarily ideological or primarily economic. The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural. Nation states will remain the most powerful actors in world affairs, but the principal conflicts of global politics will occur between nations and groups of different civilizations. The clash of civilizations will dominate global politics. The fault lines between civilizations will be the battle lines of the future.” The Clash of Civilizations

  12. Intermestics as an alternative conceptual lense • Interconnectedness of international and domestic politics. • Reflection of creeping globalization, characterized by the retreat of exclusive state sovereignty, and the rise of the intensity of social interconnectedness and speedy circulation of ideas, but without wiping out the impact of local features. • Major characteristics – from oil wealth and its impact, to religio-politics and its international spillover – illustrate the dominance of intermestics.

  13. Oil: Assets and Disadvantages

  14. Oil: Assets and Disadvantages • Middle East and North Africa play a central role in global oil supplies. • For the region, however, oil is a mixed blessing: - Positive: Significant income, political influence - Negative: market fluctuations, undiversified economies, laziness and effortless spending (i.e.rentier economies).

  15. Geopolitical Conflicts • Arab-Israeli Conflict: Basis of Middle East’s militarization and rise of so-called “national security states”. • High levels of military spending , e.g. Saudi Arabia. • Border disputes: impact almost every country in the region. • Proliferation pressure.

  16. Socio-economic Deficits • Demographics: On average x3 population increase in past 50 years  potential social upheavals and interstate spillover. • Age of populations: the “Youthening” dilemma. • Failure to attract foreign resources through trade or investment. • “Low politics” basis of Arab Spring.

  17. Religio-Politics • Politicization of religion throughout the Middle East. • Even officially secular countries (Turkey) impacted by religio-politics. • Religion as a symbol of the defence of threatened identity. • Socio-economic ills and threats to identity help the rise of Islamic opposition, furthered by legitimacy deficit of regimes. • International spill-over: 9/11 and other examples.

  18. Arab Spring: Regional Repercussions • Opportunity for Islamists to Rule  towards an Islamist Spring? • Political instability and social tension bound to persist. • Pattern of regional leaderships: what role for Turkey ? • External factors ( Globalization, the US, Russia, etc.) impact domestic and international relations.

  19. Thanks

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