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The Steam Team Group Findings

The Steam Team Group Findings. Bangkok 11 th – 14 th November 2012 Shangri-La Hotel. Moderators: Group 6 Andrew Bingham Manfred Raschke Group 7 Philip Gasteen Yuji Fukumoto Group 8 Mark Walters Graham Parker. Predicted Increase/Decrease in Import Consumption for 2013 - Europe.

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The Steam Team Group Findings

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  1. The Steam TeamGroup Findings Bangkok 11th – 14th November 2012 Shangri-La Hotel Moderators: Group 6 Andrew Bingham Manfred Raschke Group 7 Philip Gasteen Yuji Fukumoto Group 8 Mark Walters Graham Parker

  2. Predicted Increase/Decrease in Import Consumption for 2013 - Europe

  3. Predicted Increase/Decrease in Import Consumption for 2013 – Pacific Asia, Africa & Middle East

  4. Predicted Increase/Decrease in Import Consumption for 2013 – North & South America

  5. Predicted Increase/Decrease In Export Production for 2013

  6. Predicted Supply/Demand Balance – Results for 2013

  7. API #4 expectation for 2013 NAR FOB RBCT ($/MT) API #2 expectation for 2013 NAR CIF ARA ($/MT) Newcastle expectation for 2013 FOB Newc ($/MT)

  8. Key Freight Concerns for 2013 • If this is the bottom of the freight market, and there are no price increases, will this affect American or Colombian tonnage to Asia? Will it affect low lead times?

  9. Key Market Concerns for 2013 • China concerns: Chinese hydro – will this result in less coal from the pacific? • What will China do if prices rise USD 15? • If Indonesia is going to increase production, will it go to China or the world market or will it go to China when Chinese coal is too expensive • Impact of gas – how much swapping will there be from coal? • What if there is military action in Iran, what will this action do to oil and gas prices? • Australia is under a real threat to reduce tonnage. • How long will Australian coal be in the market at today’s prices? • If the US cuts 20mmt supply, where will Europe get the replacement tons, assuming the high sulphur coal goes to India?

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