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CADDIS - Risk-based Prioritization and Diagnosing the Risk Drivers. Susan Cormier, Ph.D. NCEA-Cincinnati and the whole CADDIS team. Cumulative Risks. Cumulative Causes. Assessments of Cumulative Causes, CADDIS, and a Case. Given this effect, what is the probable cause?.
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CADDIS - Risk-based Prioritization and Diagnosing the Risk Drivers Susan Cormier, Ph.D. NCEA-Cincinnati and the whole CADDIS team
Cumulative Risks Cumulative Causes Assessments of Cumulative Causes, CADDIS, and a Case
Given this effect, what is the probable cause? Cause Given E what was C? • Given what we know of the effects, what is the likely exposure scenario or combination of exposures that caused these effects? Risk Given C what will E be? • Given what we know of the mixture or the individual components of the mixture, what are the probabilities and types of effects that may occur? Given this cause, what is the probable effect?
Different Questions Different Analyses Different Logic Cumulative Risks Cumulative Causes
Different Questions Different Analyses Different Logic Cumulative Risks Different Kinds of Assessments Cumulative Causes
The Basic EA Framework Condition Assessment Causal Assessments Outcome Assessment Predictive Assessments
The Basic EA Framework Problem Detection Condition Assessment Causal Assessments Outcome Assessment Predictive Assessments
The Basic EA Framework Problem Resolution Condition Assessment Causal Assessments Outcome Assessment Predictive Assessments
The Basic EA Framework Analysis from Effect to Cause Condition Assessment Causal Assessments Environmental Epidemiology Outcome Assessment Predictive Assessments
The Basic EA Framework Condition Assessment Causal Assessments Environmental Management Outcome Assessment Predictive Assessments Analysis from Cause to Effect
The Basic EA Framework Analysis from Effect to Cause Problem Detection Problem Resolution Condition Assessment Causal Assessments Environmental Epidemiology Environmental Management Outcome Assessment Predictive Assessments Analysis from Cause to Effect
Problem Detection Problem Resolution Causal Assessment Condition Assessment Risk Predictive Assessment Outcome Assessment Environmental Epidemiology Problem Resolution Criteria Setting, Risk Assessment Environmental Management
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CADDIS: EPA Website for Ecological Causal Assessment Analysis from Effect to Cause Problem Detection Problem Resolution Condition Assessment Causal Assessments Environmental Epidemiology Environmental Management Outcome Assessment Predictive Assessments Analysis from Cause to Effect
Ecoepidemiological assessments reflect cumulative causes and effects CADDIS is a guide to causal inference for specific cases Condition Assessment Causal Assessments www.epa.gov/caddis Outcome Assessment Predictive Assessments larvae adult
Step-by Step Guide Introduction
Candidate Causes Also useful for Risk Assessment
Analyzing Data Also useful for Risk Assessment
Conceptual Models Also useful for Risk Assessment Databases
The Basic EA Framework Condition Assessment Causal Assessments Outcome Assessment Predictive Assessments
Stream Organisms mayfly stonefly caddisfly blackfly Degraded Stream Organisms pouch snail chironomid
Case Study - Willimantic River, CT • Clean Water Act • 305b report to Congress • TMDLs target Cu, Pb, Zn POTW
Willimantic River Above POTW Below POTW
Define the Biological Impairment Not impaired Moderately impaired Impaired Compared to further upstream First appearance of downstream impairment
Willimantic River Study Area • Area of concern • Upstream impairment identified MR1 MR3 POTW
The Basic EA Framework Condition Assessment Causal Assessments Outcome Assessment Predictive Assessments
Types of Causation • Specific Causation • Causal: Did smoking cause my cancer • Risk: Will my smoking cause cancer • General Causation • Causal: Does smoking cause cancer • Risk: Can smoking cause cancer
Evidence from the Case Evidence from the Elsewhere Types of Causation Sources of Data for Evidence • Specific Causation • Did C cause E • Will C cause E • General Causation • Does C cause E • Can C cause E
Develop and Evaluate Evidence • Refutation • Diagnosis • Weight of evidence
1.0 0.8 0.6 Probability of Observing <9 EPT Taxa 0.4 0.2 0.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent Fines Risk Assessment Logistic Regression MAIA Probability of <9 EPT for %fines Risk of effect Cause/Effect Model Exposure Characterization
1.0 0.8 0.6 Probability of Observing <9 EPT Taxa 0.4 0.2 0.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent Fines Causal Assessment Logistic Regression MAIA Probability of <9 EPT for %fines Cause/Effect Model Exposure Characterization
List of Candidate Causes • toxicityfrom metals, ammonia (NH3), or a complex mixture • high flowsremoval of organisms during • settled particles filling interstitial habitat • low dissolved oxygen • thermal stress • altered food resourcesfavoring filter feeders
Weight of evidence • Types of evidence • Adapted from Hill’s Considerations • Scoring • Source of information • Observation • Manipulation • General Knowledge • Quality of evidence • From the case or elsewhere • Specificity, Consistency and other qualities
Not impaired Moderately impaired Impaired
Unknown source After repairing broken pipe, Al, Cd, Cr, Pb, Fe, Zn decreased & more species observed Episodic exposure Sustained exposure Ammonia levels greater upstream Al, Fe, Pb, Ni, Zn Cr Cd & Cu Ammonia Mixture Cu & Cd benchmarks exceeded, but unimpaired sites also exceeded Cr benchmark exceeded, but form not likely hexavalent Cr Al, Fe, Pb, Ni, Zn did not exceed toxic benchmarks Ammonia did not exceed toxic levels Death or reproductive failure ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Loss of invertebrate species
Not impaired Moderately impaired Impaired
Predictive Assessment Risk:Repairing broken effluent pipe and reducing metal release from POTW—no risk assessment, legally required remedies and no associated risks. Expectation: reduce toxic effects, returning this segment to condition similar to those upstream. Moderate effects from stressors associated unless old mill dams were removed. Risk: Removing dams: risk assessments of removal options necessary because unmanaged release of sediment would bury downstream reach and may contain toxic substances
Predictive Assessment • Management: • Repair pipe —None, responsible parties complied. • More stringent NPDES permit at POTW—none, responsible parties complied and monitoring of effluent continues. • Removal of dams—Due to concerns about cost, social acceptance, and uncertainty of causes, CT DEP chose to study effects of impervious surfaces and dams on biological condition throughout the state. Small dams could provide aesthetically attractive cascades. Consultation with public would be required for optimizing benefits of selective dam removal.
The Basic EA Framework Condition Assessment Causal Assessments Outcome Assessment Predictive Assessments
CADDIS is a guide to causal inference for specific cases www.epa.gov/caddis cormier.susan@epa.gov 513-569-7995