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Use of EMEP results in ICP M&M assessments for the support of the GP-revision

Collaborative efforts between EMEP and WGE-CCE for assessing emissions, impacts, and dynamics in Europe. Includes detailed analyses for acid, nutrients, heavy metals, and biodiversity. Reports on exceedances, critical loads, and scenario-specific data. Evaluation of robustness and likelihood of impacts. Plans for future model enhancements.

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Use of EMEP results in ICP M&M assessments for the support of the GP-revision

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  1. Use of EMEP results in ICP M&M assessments for the support of the GP-revision J-P Hettelingh, M Posch, J Slootweg ICP M&M - Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.icpmapping.org hosted at RIVM

  2. Collaboration between EMEP and WGE-CCE includes: - emissions/depositions/concentrations from EMEP (CIAM; MSC-W) for assessments of acid and nutrient exceedances in support of the revison of the gothenburg protocol and NEC (TSAP) • emissions/depositions from EMEP (MSC-E) for assessments of Heavy metal exceedances in support of effect based information to the revision of the HM protocol • Historic emission/deposition assessments for the dynamic modelling of changes to soil chemistry and vegetation diversity • Scenario specific information on various air pollution compounds for WGE expost assessments • Information on exceedances, land cover and soil chemistry for use by EMEP • Report and paper contributions

  3. CCE Environmental Impact Assessment CCE Environmental Impact Assessment No No Damage Damage Dynamic Dynamic Exceedance Exceedance Exceed Exceed delay ? delay ? Modelling Modelling Yes Yes of computed of computed - - ance ance ? ? analysis analysis critical loads critical loads GAINS GAINS Scenario Scenario GAINS GAINS Yes Yes Deposition Deposition Yes Yes Report Report Emission Emission on nature on nature on on Uncertainty analysis: Ensemble Assessment of Impacts Uncertainty analysis: Ensemble Assessment of Impacts Scenario Scenario impacts impacts Yes Yes Yes Yes Exceedance Exceedance Yes Yes Exceed Exceed Impact on Impact on Dose Dose - - of empirical of empirical - - ance ance ? ? Species rich Species rich - - Response Response critical loads critical loads ness? ness? analysis analysis No No Structure of ICP M&M Impact assessment EMEP

  4. Illustrative analysis ofEffects of acidity and nutrient-N using most recent CIAM scenarios

  5. Using modelled critical loads for acidity and nutrient-N

  6. Exceedances (AAE) of Acidity Critical Loads and % area at risk in Europe, (EU27) and Natura2000 2000, 10%,(19%), 21% COB, 3%, (5%), 6% LOW*, 2%, (4%), 5% MID, 2%, (4%), 4% HIGH*, 2% (3%), 3% MFR, 1% (3%), 3%

  7. Exceedances (AAE) of Nutrient Critical Loads and % area at risk in Europe, (EU27) and Natura2000 2000, 52%, (74%), 71% COB, 34% (55%), 55% LOW*, 28%, (46%), 46% MFR, 22%, (38%), 37% MID, 26%, (43%), 44% HIGH*, 23%, (39%), 39%

  8. DYNAMIC MODELLING of Eutrophication: Violation of Nutrient 2050 Target Loads (compared with CLs) and % area not recovering before 2050 in Europe and (EU27) Target Loads CLs COB 35% (57%) 34% (55%) MID 27% (46%) 26% (43%)

  9. Using empirical critical loads

  10. Exceedances (AAE) of Empirical Critical Loads and % area at risk in Europe, (EU27) and Natura2000 2000, 23%, (40%), 48% COB, 10%,(18%), 24% LOW*, 6%, (11%), 14% MFR, 3% (6%), 8% MID, 5%, (9%), 12% HIGH*, 3%, (7%), 9%

  11. Area at N-risk of a more than 5% “change in biodiversity”, i.e. of species richness [semi-natural grass lands; s-alpine scrub habitats], and similarity [coniferous boreal woodlands], together covering 53% of European natural area 9% of the area 2% of the area 1,2% of the area 1% of the area 0,7% of the area 0,6% of the area

  12. Assessment of the robustness of scenario impacts

  13. Likeliness of Exceedances (AAE) in Europe based on the “ensemble” of empirical and modelled CL(N) Exceedances: = unlikely = 50 - 50 = likely = very likely = virtually certain Explore the inclusion of alternative deposition assessments ?

  14. In addition, some areas are also at risk ofambient [NH3] that exceed critical levels NAT-2000 PRI-2000 MFR-2020 PRI-2030 Critical levels from Cape et al. 2008

  15. Some concluding observations Collaboration between EMEP and WGE-CCE: • Works very well, including … • science (FP7; publications; reports) for ground truthing of … • applications for the support of European air quality policies • Will review requirements to further implement the EB strategy calling for the broadening of the modelled system (change of climate and biodiversity; uncertainty)

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