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Challenges in Using Paramics in a Secondary Plan Study – Case Study of Downsview, Toronto. Paramics Users Group Meeting October 5, 2009. Overview. Background Existing Conditions Future Traffic Demands Future Model Scenarios Challenges Discussions. Study Background.
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Challenges in Using Paramics in a Secondary Plan Study – Case Study of Downsview, Toronto Paramics Users Group Meeting October 5, 2009
Overview • Background • Existing Conditions • Future Traffic Demands • Future Model Scenarios • Challenges • Discussions
Study Background • Secondary Plan Update involving: • Land Use and Urban Design Plans • Transportation Assessment • Servicing • Secondary Plan Update to harness a new subway line that will run through the plan area. • Paramics model used to develop and evaluate the network alternatives and identify preferred option
Study Area / Issues Future subway extension to York University Future intermodal station
Study Objectives • Issues to be addressed by modelling • Identify preferred network including lane requirements • Sensitivity analysis on specific network elements • Define timing/phasing of major (still underway) • Paramics Scenarios: • Existing Conditions • Over 50 Future 2031 scenarios representing alternative networks & land use permutations
Data Collection • Signal timing data available for the focus area only • Traffic volumes: - Turning movement counts (TMCs) at major intersections • Traversal matrices for 2006 and 2031 from the City’s demand forecasting EMME model for AM peak hour • Floating car measurements of travel time along surrounding arterial sections
Study Area- Existing Network Finch Ave. Dufferin St. Sheppard Ave. Area: 6km wide by 4 km Bathurst St. Sheppard Ave. Total demand: 35,000 Jane St. Vehicles in system: 4-5,000 Allen Rd. Focus Area Keele St. Wilson Ave.
Calibration and Validation • Undertaken through volume comparisons at screenline, link, intersection and turning movement levels; • Stochastic assignment method used • GEH statistic as well as % variation • Acceptable results achieved as shown below
Future 2031 Traffic Demands • Based on traversal matrix (AM) obtained from the City • Minor adjustments as applied for existing conditions • Trips from Downsview Park (Zone 98) replaced with trip generated from considered land-use • Adjustments for existing demands • PM demands assessed from AM and trip generation
Recommended Land Use • Five land use scenarios developed • Three considered in analysis • Existing TMP • Recommended Population: 19,575 Employment: 22,029 Units: 9,841 GFA: 1.4m (m2)
Summary of Traffic Demands Trip Generation Total Paramics Demands
Network Options Emerging Preferred
Paramics Future Networks Option 3 TMP Option 2 Emerging Preferred
Measures of Performance • LOS does bring out significant differences • Use of screen shots to emphasize certain operational aspects • Use of network based measures to better show differences
Measures of Performance – Network Based This is measure of how much of the extra development demand could not be loaded into the network based on output of Paramics release file
Sensitivity Analysis • Allen Area Configuration – (A) • Transit Road Extension – (B) • Roadway Extension to Wilson (C) • E-W Roadway Extension to Keele (D) • Dufferin St. Extension (E) D B A E C
Challenges • Policy constraints requiring no widening of arterial networks made it difficult to develop road network • Need to communicate study findings clearly to “non-technical” persons necessitated use of unique performance measures • Need to satisfy all requirements resulted in modelling many scenarios. This was worsened by the need to communicate all findings in a way easily understood by non technical persons