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WAENO WORKSHOP

WAENO WORKSHOP. Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree. Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree. Alternatives considered in the Fuzzy RO Decision Tree: Grate Boiler Crushing and cofiring of Biofuel-NA2 No investment CCGT Fr9E CCGT 2*Fr9Fa Old Boilers Changed to Gas  No investment

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WAENO WORKSHOP

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  1. WAENO WORKSHOP Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree

  2. Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Alternatives considered in the Fuzzy RO Decision Tree: • Grate Boiler • Crushing and cofiring of Biofuel-NA2 • No investment • CCGT Fr9E • CCGT 2*Fr9Fa • Old Boilers Changed to Gas  No investment • Old Boilers Changed to Gas  CCGT Fr9E • Old Boilers Changed to Gas  CCGT 2*Fr9Fa • Repowering

  3. Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Fuzzification Process Triangular Fuzzy Numbers Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers Investment Cost

  4. Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Risk Index Triangular Fuzzy Number: Trapezoidal Fuzzy Number:

  5. Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Sensitivity Analysis Inputs: • Discount Rate {r: 0 <= r <= 10 %} • Risk Free Interest Rate {rf :0 <= rf <= 6 %} • Risk Aversion {A: 0 <= A <= 10} • Price Scenario {P: P = 1, 2, 3} Outputs • FROV and FuzzyCF • U(FROV) • Project Index (1st position) • Deferral Time • M(FROV) and M(FuzzyCF) • Inputs vary according to an uniform distribution • Analysis for triangular and trapezoidal fuzzy number

  6. Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Discount Rate • Both types give the • same optimal projects • The discount rate • where the decision • changes is similar, • 2.16 % and 2.05 % • Optimal deferral time • constant • Rf = 3 %, A = 5.5 • Price Scenario = 2

  7. Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Discount Rate – Trapezoidal – Project 5

  8. Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Discount Rate – Trapezoidal – Project 1

  9. Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Discount Rate – Triangular – Project 5

  10. Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Discount Rate – Triangular – Project 1

  11. Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Discount Rate – Trapez - Triang – Project 5

  12. Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Discount Rate – Trapez - Triang – Project 1

  13. Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Price Scenario • Both types give the • same optimal projects • Optimal deferral time • constant • Rf = 3 %, A = 5.5 • r = 5 %

  14. Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Price Scenario

  15. Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Risk Free Interst Rate • Both types give the • same optimal project • Optimal deferral time • constant • A = 5.5 r = 5 % • Price scenario 2

  16. Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Risk Free Interst Rate - Trapezoidal

  17. Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Risk Free Interst Rate - Triangular

  18. Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Risk Free Interest Rate – Triang – Trapez

  19. Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Risk Index • Both types give the • same optimal projects • The risk index where • the decision changes • is similar, 3.84 and • 3.45 • Optimal deferral time • constant • Rf = 3 %, r = 5 % • Price Scenario = 2

  20. Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Risk Index – Trapezoidal – Project 5 - 1

  21. Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Risk Index – Triangular – Project 5 - 1

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