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...2025. SVG. Characteristics of the Future Security Environment and Force Implications. Prepared for: Seabasing Symposium Presented by Col Tom Connally, USMC. 29 September 09. 1. Agenda. SVG Overview Future Security Environment Trends Patterns Future Conflict

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  1. ...2025 SVG Characteristics of the Future Security Environment and Force Implications Prepared for: Seabasing Symposium Presented by Col Tom Connally, USMC 29 September 09 1

  2. Agenda SVG Overview Future Security Environment Trends Patterns Future Conflict Future Force Implications 2

  3. Mission and Purpose of the SVG Mission “Analyze future security environments; identify future operational threats, challenges, opportunities, and risks; and identify associated future force implications in order to inform Senior Marine Corps leadership and assist CMC to posture the Marine Corps for future success.” Tasks Provide strategic estimates and assessments of future security environments out to 2025 with a focus on a rolling time horizon at the end of the Defense Planning Projection (DPP) Be the service facilitator and catalyst for strategic thinking on select issues. Assist CMC and Senior leadership with strategy development, implementation, and associated strategic communications. Start a “Strategic Dialogue” and Create an “Institutional Updraft” 11/17/2014 3

  4. Demographic Dichotomy Urban Density and Sprawl Growing resource scarcity and competition (energy, water, & food) Uneven prosperity Economic and global power shifts toward Asia; rising powers (China and India) and changing alliances; decline of “traditional” Europe Struggle for sovereign legitimacy over identity Character and conduct of warfare continues to blur - asymmetrically Trends -The future establishes the requirement… 4

  5. Trends…. Demographic Dichotomy Graying of developed world Youth bulges (15-29) in developing world 5 11/17/2014 5

  6. Trends…. Urban Density and Sprawl Over half of global population is living in urban areas 1 in 6 in urban slums Concentrated in the littoral with over 60% within 100NM of ocean 6 11/17/2014 6

  7. Trends… Growing Resource Scarcity and Competition Humanitarian crisis due to water/food scarcity Intervention to secure uninterrupted resource supply 7 11/17/2014 7

  8. Trends… Uneven Prosperity Tech diffusion… Increased Globalization and Interdependence Global society vs. non-connected people 8 11/17/2014 8

  9. Trends… Economic and global power shifts toward Asia Economic/political patterns Increased diplomatic clout 9 11/17/2014 9

  10. Trends… Struggle for sovereign legitimacy over identity Concept of sovereign nation-state challenged Non-State actors Cultural legitimacy over State 10 11/17/2014 10

  11. Urbanization of the Littorals Global electronic activity plotted over a 30 day period circa 1999

  12. Choke Points Regions of Strategic Naval Maneuver Piracy Factors in Instability & Conflict Arc of Instability Top Ten Birth Rate Nation 2009-2014 2014-2025 Ungoverned Region Water Stress

  13. Choke Points Regions of Strategic Naval Maneuver Piracy Potential Areas of Instability & Conflict: 2009-2025 Arc of Instability Top Ten Birth Rate Nation 2009-2014 2014-2025 Ungoverned Region 13 Water Stress

  14. 8 7 4 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 3 1 1 2014-2025 Where We Have Gone:Instability & Conflict: 1984-2009 13 9 32 9 2009-2014 Employment of amphibious forces

  15. Trends…. Character and conduct of warfare continues to blur Growth of asymmetries Police vs. Military Roles Emergence of…….. 15 11/17/2014 15

  16. Emerging Operational Threats & Challenges Future Security Environment Increasing complexity in the Nature of Warfare Hybrid Threats Complex Environments 11/17/2014 16

  17. Hybrid Threat “Hybrid threats incorporate a full range of different modes of warfare including conventional capabilities, irregular tactics and formations, terrorist acts including indiscriminate violence and coercion, and criminal disorder.” ~ F.G. Hoffman CETO 2008

  18. State-like capabilities PGMs Long Range Missiles Anti-ship Cruise Missiles Anti-armor systems UAVs SIGINT Selected tactics— Highly trained in traditionaland irregular modes Extensive preparations Exploitation of political effects Hezbollah: Prototype Hybrid “Hezbollah’s combat cells were a hybrid of guerrillas and regular troops-- a form of opponent that U.S. forces are apt to encounter with increasing frequency.” Ralph Peters 18

  19. Complex Environment Complex Terrain Information War War Amongst The People

  20. 1990 Least Dangerous/ Lesser Included Capability Most Dangerous/ Focus of Effort Low Intensity Conflict High Intensity Conflict Previous Character of Conflict Paradigm Shift in Conflict Spectrum S O T 2025 Least Dangerous/ Not always a Lesser Included Capability Most Dangerous/ Less Likely Increasingly Lethal and Complex S O Most Likely T Emerging Character of Conflict:merging and blurring forms of warfare

  21. Future Conflict Hybrid Conflicts: Simultaneous, Fused, and Multi-modal. “Conflicts are increasingly characterized by a hybrid blend of traditional and irregular tactics, decentralized planning and execution, and non-state actors, using both simple and sophisticated technologies in innovative ways. ~ A Cooperative Strategy for Maritime Security 2007

  22. DoD Viewpoint “… it is common to define and divide the so-called "high end" from the "low end," …In reality, … the categories of warfare are blurring and do not fit into neat, tidy boxes.” “We can expect to see more tools and tactics of destruction - from the sophisticated to the simple - being employed simultaneously in hybrid and more complex forms of warfare.” “… these hybrid scenarios combine the "lethality of state conflict with the fanatical and protracted fervor of irregular warfare." 22

  23. Future Force Characteristics Simultaneous offensive, defensive and stability operations 360 degree posture on the battlefield – non-linear TTPs More distributed operations with expanded C4 and operational reach considerations Adapt capability and capacity mix from largely conventional to hybrid posture Discriminate and proportional use of force will increasingly constrain operations Increased training & education demand for “agile” multi-capable forces “Persistent engagement” activities to prevent or reduce conflict and build enduring relationships Respect and legitimacy vice “hearts & minds” with populations Constant operations in the information & human terrain – local, US and international 23

  24. Major MAGTF Implications Decentralized MAGTF operations MAGTF effectiveness in complex terrain Complex and media-intensiveoperational environments Communications skills “We must train and educate Marines at all levels on the challenges and opportunities presented by the Information Age so that it becomes inherent in everything we do.” MCV&S 2025 24

  25. 2025 Vision Of 2025 USMC MEU Focused in Med and West Africa Indicates persistent presence GFS GFS Indicates episodic location CSG TACAIR Integration Persistent Fwd Naval Engagement Integrated Combined Arms across ROMO Forces and Dets for Naval Service Expeditionary Fast + Austere + Lethal JFEO from the sea Regionally Focused Persistent Engagement without Permanent Presence 3.0 MEU / ESG 3-4 SP MAGTF & 5 GFS Complex Expeditionary ops in urban littorals MEU SP MAGTF Leads Joint/MN ops enables interagency ops Leads Joint / MNOps; Enables Interagency Ops Okinawa Hawaii Guam GFS GFS GFS LCS LPD-17 SP MAGTF LPD-17 SP MAGTF MEU SP MAGTF GFS CSG GFS MEU LPD-17 LCS Increasing Tailored Forward Presence of Multicapable MAGTFs GFS: Global Fleet Station CSG: Carrier Strike Group MEU: Marine Expeditionary Unit ESG: Expeditionary Strike Group SP MAGTF : Special Purpose Marine Air Ground Task Force (MAGTF) 25

  26. Questions

  27. Questions? Visit the SVG at www.mccdc.usmc.milor Google “Strategic Vision Group” Click on “Strategic Vision Group” tab for all source documents, briefs, information papers, etc… 27

  28. Stress, Instability, & Conflict: 2009… Choke points Water Stress Energy Demand Urban Stress Terrorism/Crime Youth Bulge Ungoverned Nuclear • Ungoverned Spaces • Guatemala-Chiapas Border • Colombia-Venezuela Border • West Africa • East Africa • Arabian Peninsula • North Caucasus Region • Afghan-Pakistan Border • Sulawesi-Mindanao 28 28 28

  29. Choke Points Regions of Strategic Naval Maneuver Top Oil Reserve and Production Nations… Crisis and Critical Infrastructure Protection Arc of Instability Coastal and off-shore production and distribution facilities associated with the “top ten” constitute Critical Littoral Infrastructure Favorable Allied/Coalition Access/Basing Support 2009-2014 2014-2025 Off-shore Production facilities Current Production Identified Reserves Undeveloped Fields

  30. Choke Points Regions of Strategic Naval Maneuver Potential Instability & Conflict: 2009-2025 …Economic Crisis “The near-term security concern of the United States is the global Economic crisis and its geopolitical implications.” “… it already looms as the most serious global economic and financial crisis in decades.” ~ Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community 12 Feb 2009 2009-2014 2014-2025 Economic Crisis Could go either way

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