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SUSTAINABILITY: ASSUMPTION, HYPOTHESIS, OXYMORON?

SUSTAINABILITY: ASSUMPTION, HYPOTHESIS, OXYMORON?. James H. Brown Department of Biology University of New Mexico Mojave Desert Science Symposium November 2004. Benchmarks: Ecological Society of America : 1998 Lubchenco et al. The sustainable biosphere initiative

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SUSTAINABILITY: ASSUMPTION, HYPOTHESIS, OXYMORON?

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  1. SUSTAINABILITY: ASSUMPTION, HYPOTHESIS, OXYMORON? James H. Brown Department of Biology University of New Mexico Mojave Desert Science Symposium November 2004

  2. Benchmarks: Ecological Society of America: • 1998 Lubchenco et al. The sustainable biosphere initiative • 2004 Palmer et al. Ecological science and sustainability for a crowded planet Science: • 2001 Kates et al. Sustainability science • 2003 McMichael et al. New visions for addressing sustainability Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, USA: • 2003 Clark and Dickson. Sustainability science: the emerging research paradigm Books: 1997 Daily. Nature’s services: societal dependence on natural ecosystems 2003 Hall. Quantifying sustainable development 2003 Millenium Ecosystem Assessment. Ecosystems and human well-being

  3. Concepts of Sustainability Long history in the environmental sciences • Sustainable biosphere: maintenance of “ecological goods and services” to support human population, ecosystem function, and biodiversity • Sustainable development: economic progress without social or environmental damage • Sustainable agriculture: food and fiber production for human use • Sustained yield of natural resources: fisheries, wildlife, timber, livestock forage

  4. What is meant by sustainability? • Ecological system: • productivity • biodiversity • landscape • heterogeneity • human population • and economy • Equilibrial exchange: • energy • materials • organisms • humans • Input subsidies: • energy • materials • organisms • humans • Output losses: • energy, materials, organisms

  5. Ecological system: • 6 billion people • modern technological • economy • agricultural • productivity • biodiversity • “ecosystem services” Sustainable biosphere? • Input subsidies: • fossil fuel energy • Output losses: • heat • Degrading transformations: • dispersion of concentrated materials • production of toxins and pollutants

  6. Ecological system: • improved standard • of living • modern technological • economy • agricultural • productivity • biodiversity • “ecosystem services” Sustainable development? • Input subsidies: • fossil fuel energy • material resources • Output losses: • products • pollutants • Degrading transformations: • dispersion of concentrated materials • production of toxins and pollutants

  7. Degrading transformations: • altered soil and water • regime • biodiversity loss Sustainable agriculture? • Input subsidies: • fossil fuel energy • fertilizers • water • pesticides • human, animal, and • machine labor • Goals: • food and fiber • production • primary production • nutrient cycling • Output losses: • harvested products • soil erosion • pollutants

  8. Sustainable yield of natural resources? • Input subsidies: • fossil fuel energy • human and • machine labor • Ecological system: • resource • productivity • “ecosystem function” • biodiversity • Output losses: • natural products • timber/fish/meat • Degrading transformations: • diverse “environmental impacts”

  9. Assessment of Sustainability • Sustainable biosphere with 6 billion humans? oxymoron energy subsidy from finite supply of fossil fuels • Sustainable development? oxymoron inputs of energy and material subsidies outputs of pollutants • Sustainable agriculture? hypothesis even with energy, material, and labor subsidies? • Sustained yields of natural resources? hypothesis with minimal energy and labor subsidies?

  10. Example: Sustainable ecology and ranching on the borderlands • Place: Malpai Borderlands: ~ 2500 km2 in New Mexico and Arizona adjoining U.S.-Mexico Border • Stakeholders: Malpai Borderlands Group: ~20 ranching families, Government agencies and NGOs, scientific advisors • Goals: Ecologically and economically sustainable livestock ranching Preserve open space, biodiversity, ecological processes • Threats Rural subdivision Overgrazing Endangered species

  11. Example: sustainable livestock grazing on Malpai Borderlands

  12. Rural subdivision

  13. Overgrazing

  14. Ridge-nosed rattlesnake

  15. Jaguar

  16. Chiricahua Leopard frog

  17. The model: Ecology dictated by four primary processes: 1) Spatial variation in topography, geology and soils 2) Temporal variation in climate and weather 3) Grazing by large herbivores (now mostly domestic livestock) 4) Fire Adaptive management tomanipulate two processes: 1) Livestock grazing 2) Fire

  18. Spatial variation in topography, geology and soils

  19. Temporal variation in climate and weather

  20. Megaherbivoregrazing

  21. Fire

  22. Successes to date • Initiated ecological and economic ranching practices Adoption of adaptive management practices Natural and prescribed burns Permanent vegetation monitoring plots to track changes Grass bank to prevent overgrazing during droughts Experimentation with cattle breeds and marketing • Preservation of open space Conservation leases to prevent subdivision into rural ranchettes Alternative livelihoods: biotourism, photo and hunting safaris • Limited loss of biodiversity reintroduction/recovery of many endangered species (bighorn, prairie dog, bison, jaguar, turkey) aquatic and riparian ecosystems: continued loss of native species and invasions of exotic species

  23. Long-term prognosis? Most uncertainties are external • “Sustainable” ranching at local to regional scales requires energy, material, and economic subsidies Fossil fuels to power vehicles, machinery and households Income from livestock and other commodities • Development pressure from growing populations in Tucson, Sierra Vista, and surrounding areas • Changing livestock markets, material and transportation costs, taxation and societal incentives • External threats to biodiversity Reduction or loss of source populations, habitat and dispersal corridors in surrounding regions Time frame for “sustainability”? 50 years?

  24. Bottom line (regional to local scale): • Some degree of sustainability of is possible, BUT IT WILL REQUIRE • Consideration of ecological and human • factors • Energy, material and economic subsidies • Continual monitoring and adaptive • management • Protection from degrading external • processes

  25. Bottom line (national to global scale): Sustainability of human civilization with current population and standard of living is threatened by “five horsemen of the apocalypse” • energy • disease • food • water • pollution but energy is by far the most important – and global oil supply is being depleted

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