Unit II

1. Unit II

2. American Political Culture: Liberty • Personal Liberty -We see it as freedom to • Bill of Rights, 14th Amendment, Civil Rights, liberties

3. American Political Culture: Equality • Political Equality -All are equal under the law • Evolved and still evolving • Women, minorities, etc.

4. Equal Opportunity v. Equal Results • Equality of Opportunity • A view that it is wrong to use race or sex either to discriminate against or give preferential treatment to minorities or women • Equality of Results • A view that government should do everything in its power to guarantee all a standard quality of life

5. AMERICA’S DEMOGRAPHICS:WHO ARE WE? • Three major demographic changes in U.S. • Minority Majority • Regional Shifts • Graying of America • Demographics = science of population changes • Gender • Occupation • Race • Religion • social class

7. By 2030, more than half the youth in the U.S. will be of a racial and/or ethnic minority.

10. What will the growth of the Minority Majority mean for politics in the U.S.? “Minority-Majority” emerging

11. America’s Demographics: Who are we? • REGIONAL SHIFTS - Demographics have changed with our mobility - From the Rust Belt…PA, OH, MI to the Sun Belt … South and West – FLORIDA - Dramatic changes in FL & TX from “Frost Belt” - Cause political changes every 10 years after the census - REAPPORTIONMENT of the 435 seats in the House - FL now has 27 House seats, 29 electoral votes!

12. GRAY POWER • “Organized influence exerted by seniors.” • For 1st time in U.S. history, the “senior” segment of the population has become largest segment of the population • Baby boomers now represent 26% of the population and 40% of the economy • They will collect approximately $5 trillion in Social Security benefits! • AARP is the largest special interest group today & possesses the most political clout

17. The Socializationof politics = • The development of traditions, values and ideologies of the American political animal. • HOW is political socialization acquired? • More through formal or informal learning? • Agents of political socialization? • families • mass media • tradition + customs • schools • Which is the primary source?

19. How do we know how America is changing? • POLLING! • Public Opinion: • An aggregate of the individual views, attitudes, and beliefs about a particular topic, expressed by a significant proportion of a community Public Opinion Polls are conducted by news organizations, politicians, candidates, interest groups

20. Early 1950’s George Gallup “polled” a microcosm of American political thought – a Sample • the more “random” the better. . • everyone should have a chance of being selected. . • 1,000 to 1,500 usually enough • What is “Stratified Sampling?” • Samples are not perfect – there is a sampling error of about 3-4% in a typical poll

21. Types of Polls • Exit Polls • Questioned right after voting • Indicates who people voted for • Census Tracks/Tracking Polls • Questioning specific groups within the population • Indicates the public’s tendencies across a specific period of time

22. More Types of Polls • Push-“Push polls” AAPOR defines a "push poll" as a form of negative campaigning that is disguised as a political poll. “Push polls” are actually political telemarketing – telephone calls disguised as research that aim to persuade large numbers of voters and affect election outcomes, rather than measure opinions. • Perhaps the most famous use of push polls is in 2000 Republican Primaries, when it was alleged that George W. Bush’s campaign used push polling to torpedo the campaign of Senator John McCain. Voters in SC reportedly were asked "Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for John McCain for president if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child?" This hypothetical question seemed like a suggestion, although without substance. It was heard by thousands of primary voters. McCain and his wife had in fact adopted a Bengali girl • Straw-an unofficial vote taken to obtain an indication of the general trend of opinion on a particular issue • Example (RNC 2016 candidates) • Make your own Generator

23. Supporters of polls feel that polls assist politicians in “detecting” public preferences. . .Are there shifts in thinking . . . Should they create possible “shifts” in policy making? • Those who think polls are detractors point out that it has become the issue of selling policy instead of possibly doing what’s right! - avoiding compromises to appease radical shifts. Politicians love polls when they agree with them, they hate them when they disagree. • Bandwagon effects. . .people jump on board. . .instead of being prudent and doing their own research • Elections too often tied to them. . .takes over issue development. • Exit pollcan control elections. • For ex., the Florida debacle in the 2000 election. Gore won Florida, and then lost Florida. . .and then it was too close to call.….. • The questions are the key. . .and a major problem is that too often they are misleading!

24. Determining Poll Legitimacy • Who conducted/sponsored the poll? • Neutral polling organizations would produce the most accurate results • Political parties or other biased organizations would not • How many persons were interviewed? • Minimum 1,000 people • Reduces the margin of error • Who was interviewed? • Many people choose not to participate in polls; this can skew the results • How were the questions worded? • Pollsters must be careful how to ask the question • When was the poll conducted? • Temporary passions can also skew the results • How was the poll conducted? • Phone, Internet, On the street

25. Gallup Poll • About Gallup • Gallup delivers forward-thinking research, analytics, and advice to help leaders solve their most pressing problems. Combining more than 75 years of experience with its global reach, Gallup knows more about the attitudes and behaviors of the world's constituents, employees, and customers than any other organization.