340 likes | 379 Views
GLOBALISATION, REGIONALISATION AND CHOICES FACING ASIA. Ryokichi HIRONO Professor Emeritus, Seikei University, and Visiting Professor, Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo Hilton, Kuala Lumpur 4-5 December, 2006. OUTLINE. 1. Globalisation: Implications to East Asia
E N D
GLOBALISATION, REGIONALISATION AND CHOICES FACING ASIA Ryokichi HIRONO Professor Emeritus, Seikei University, and Visiting Professor, Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo Hilton, Kuala Lumpur 4-5 December, 2006
OUTLINE 1. Globalisation: Implications to East Asia 1) GATT/WTO regime and the reorientation of industrialization strategy from import substitution to export, 1960s-2000s; 2) Multilateral exchange rate regime change to floating, resulting in the speculative movement of short-term capital and the rush of foreign direct investment accelerating the pace of industrialization, 1970s-2000s; 3) A rapid rise to the status of a world factory, 1980s-2000s; 2. Regionalization of trade and investment, spearheaded first by Japanese multinational corporations (MNCs) and later by MNCs based in Asian Newly Industrialisimg Economies (ANIEs: Hong Kong, ROK, Singapore and Taiwan), and by those in ASEAN countries and China, and a rapid expansion of people movement among East Asian economies, 1990s-2000s;
OUTLINE 3. Choices Facing Asia: 1) Cementing the existing trade and economic cooperation arrangements: bilateral free trade agreements such as Japan-Malaysia, -Philippines, -Singapore and -Thailand, Singapore-U.S. and -Chile, ASEAN (AFTA), SPEC and APEC 2) Promoting multilateral economic partnership arrangements: ASEAN-China and other dialogue partners; 3) In search for ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), East Asian Community (EAC) and Free Trade Area for Asia and the Pacific (FTAAP), 4. Why APT, EAS, EAC, FTAAP ?: Promoting economic, social and environmental sustainability through regional cooperation
1.1 GLOBALISATION 1.Economic Globalisation 1) Externally, merchandise trade liberalisation (GATT/WTO), foreign exchange liberalisation (IMF), floating exchange rates (IMF), liberalisation of foreign borrowing and portfolio and direct investment (IMF/WTO), liberalisation of trade in agriculture and services and government procurement (GATT/WTO), bilateral and regional free trade agreements; 2) Internally, deregulation of economic activities, privatisation of state-owned enterprises and state-financed organisations (WB/ ADB/UNDP), partial desocialisation of corporate and national health insurance, pension programmes, civil service reforms, etc(WB/ADB/UNDP/ UNESCAP/ UNROAP)
1.1 GLOBALISATION 2. Political, Social and Cultural Globalisation 1) Externally, international conventions, protocols and agreements in labour, migration, human rights, defense, terrorism, education, transportation, communications, tourism, environment, intellectual property rights, etc.; 2) Internally, freedom of speech and association, gender equality, racial, ethnic and religious non-discrimination, parliamentary democracy, multi-party system, disclosure of public information, civil society, non-governmental organisations, demonstration effects (fast food, blue-jeans, etc.), urbanisation (high-rise commercial and residential buildings, suburbanites, mass transit systems, supermarkets, etc.), popular culture (CNN, BBC, Stars, commercial radio and TV broadcasting and advertising, Nintendo animation, playstations, Hollywood and Bollywood movies, etc.)
1.2 CHANGING MULTILATERAL FRAMEWORK 1. Multilateral trade negotiations under the GATT regime beginning with the Kennedy Round of 1960s, the Tokyo Round of 1970s, and the Uruguay Round of 1980s-94 and the Doha Round under the WTO regime since 2005; 2. Multilateral exchange rate realignment in December 1971 resulting from the Nixon’s New Economic Policy (NEP), and the change of the IMF regime from the fixed exchange rate to the floating in February 1973; 3. Rise of bilateral and regional free trade and economic cooperation arrangements all over the world (over 180 bilateral FTAs, ECM->EEC->EC->EU->EEU, ASEAN, MERCOSUR, EAC, CAFTA, APEC, AFTA, CIS, NAFTA, SCO, leading possibly to FTAA, AEC, EAEPA, EAC, FTAAP, etc.)
1.3 IMPACT OF GLOBALISATION 1.Positive Impact 1) Externally, merchandise trade expansion and quality improvement, intra-regional trade expansion, easier and cost-effective access to international capital, technology and professional manpower markets, expanding business opportunities overseas, enhanced international flows of people, information, knowledge and ideas, leading to the concept of a global village; 2) Internally, productivity increases, quality improvement and price declines/stability due to to more effective competition among firms and through economic and enterprise reforms, skill upgrading, increased consumer choices, gender equality, greater transparency and people participation in decision-making processes and greater respect for local and community traditions and culture, etc.;
1.3 IMPACT OF GLOBALISATION 2. Negative Impact 1) Externally, sharper distinction between winners and losers at the international levels including greater disparities among both industrial and developing countries, a higher external dependence, global warming and environmental destruction, globalisation of unsustainable patterns of production and consumption, reduction/loss of cultural diversity, and rise of ill-directed nationalism and patriotism, leading to international terrorism and the possibility of greater international conflicts; 2) Internally, widening regional (sub-national) disparities and uprooting/ dislocation of people, growing income disparities among people at the national and local levels, loss of individual identity, money as determinant of individual status and behaviour, loss of the sense of community at family, neighbourhood and township levels, accelerated deterioration of the environment including air, water and soil quality, a wider spread of unsustainable patterns of consumption,;
II. REGIONALISATION OF TRADE AND INVESTMENT AND A RAPID EXPANSION OF PEOPLE MOVEMENT IN ASIA: BACKGROUND FOR REGIONAL COOPERATION
2.1 CHANGING STRATEGY OF INDUSTRIALISATION IN ASIA UNDER GLOBALISATION 1. During the late 1960s-1970s: a shift in industrialisation strategy from IMPORT SUBSTITUTION to EXPORT PROMOTION in smaller developing countries, to benefit from the then rapidly expanding world market and the presence of surplus labour and low wages, especially of women: even larger developing countries like China and India moved later to export-led industrialisation strategy; 2. Export-led industrialisation strategies in Asia, when adopted by neighbouring countries, led to a rapid expansion of foreign direct investment inflows and intense competition among them; 3. During the 1980s onward: a STEADY TRANSFORMATION of the poor to the middle class through better education, greater employment opportunities and better working conditions, BUT to the pattern of UNSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT underthe pressures of globalisation and demonstration effects;
2.1a SUSTAINED ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ASIA Economies GDP 2005($Million) growth rates 2000-05 1975-2004* 1990-2004* Brunein.a. n.a. -2.2 -0.7 Cambodia 5,398 6.8 2.1 5.0 China 2,228,862 9.6 8.4 8.9 Hong Kong 177,722 4.3 4.1 2.0 Taiwan 286,200 n.a. 6.0 3.7 Indonesia 287,217 4.7 4.1 1.8 Lao, PDR 2,855 6.2 3.6 4.2 Malaysia 130,143 4.8 4.1 3.5 Mongolia 1,880 5.8 0.9 2.4 Myanmar n.a. n.a. 1.8 5.7 Philippines 98,306 4.5 0.3 0.9 ROK 787,624 4.6 6.0 4.5 Singapore 116,764 4.2 4.7 3.8 Thailand 176,602 5.4 5.0 2.6 Vietnam 52,408 7.5 5.6 5.5 Developing Cs 9,926,393 5.3 2.4 3.0 Japan 4,505,912 1.3 2.3 0.8 World 44,384,871 2.8 1.4 1.4 Source: UNDP, Human Development Report (HDR) 2006 and World Bank, World Development Report (WDR) 2007. Note; (*) Annual growth rate of GDP per capita.
2.1b EXPORT EXPANSION BY MAJOR COMMODITY CLASSIFICATIONS Countries Exports Manufactured High-Technology % of GDP % of m. exports % of manufactured 1990 2005 1990 2004 1990 2004 Cambodia 6 57 n.a. 97 n.a. 0 China 18 34 72 91 n.a. 30 Hong Kong 133 165 95 97 n.a. 32 Indonesia 25 30 35 56 1 16 Lao, PDR 11 15 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Malaysia 75 108 54 76 38 55 Mongolia n.a. 56 n.a. 38 n.a. 0 Myanmar 3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Philippines 28 42 38 55 n.a. 64 ROK 28 36 94 92 18 33 Singapore n.a. 19772 84 40 59 Thailand 34 62 63 75 21 30 Vietnam 36 62 n.a. 53 n.a. 6 Developing Countries25 31 58 64 n.a. 19 East Asia 33 37 75 80 n.a. 34 World 19 23 72 77 18 20 Source: UNDP, HDR 2006 and WORLD BANK, WDR 2007
2.2 RUSH OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT 1. A dramatic change in government policies from nationalisation of foreign enterprises in the 1950s to promoting foreign direct investment in the 1960s onward particularly in mining and manufacturing sectors initially and construction, trading, service and finance sectors later; 2. With the floating exchange rate installed in February 1973, the Energy Crises of 1973-74 and 1979-80, and the open-door policy by China in 1978 and by India in the 1990s, there has been a rapid growth of foreign direct investment in East and South Asia, though interrupted by the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98; 3. New foreign investors have joined the older European and Americans on the Asian scene, beginning with Japanese in the 1970s and later with other Asians in the 1990s;
2.2a A STEADY GROWTH OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (% of GDP) Economies FDI Inflows Other Private Flows 1990 2000 2004 1990 2000 2004 Cambodia 0.0 3.9 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 China 1.0 3.6 2.8 1.3 1.8 0.4 Hong Kong n.a. n.a. 20.9 n..a. n.a. n.a. Indonesia 1.0 -3.0 0.4 1.6 -.4.3 0.5 Lao, PDR 0.7 4.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Malaysia 5.3 1.9 3.9 -4.2 1.7 3.7 Myanmar n.a. n.a. n.a. -1.5 n.a. -1.0 Philippines 1.2 2.7 0.6 0.2 0.6 2.4 ROK 0.3 2.0 1.2 0.1 0.9 n.a. Singapore 15.1 6.9 15.0 n.a. n..a. n.a. Taiwan n.a. 2.6 1.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. Thailand 2.9 2.8 0.9 2.9 -3.9 0.3 Vietnam 2.8 4.1 3.6 0.0 -2.3 ins. Developing Cs 1.0 2.5 2.7 0.4 1.0 0.7 East Asia 1.7 2.8 3.4 0.6 0.7 n.a. South Asia ins. 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.8 1.3 LAC 0.7 3.9 3.0 0.5 1.1 -0.2 Sources: UNDP, HDR 2002 & 2006
2.3 A RISE OF REGIONALISM UNDER GLOBALIZATION 1. Regional trade and economic cooperation has made a notable growth in all regions of the world, beginning with the European Common Market in western Europe in the 1950s, expanding its functions during the 1960s-90s and extending its geographical coverage to central and eastern Europe in 2004; 2. Precipitated by some success of the European economic integration, five Southeast Asian countries formed their own region-wide trading and economic cooperation group, Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 1967, later expanded to bring in five more countries in the region, as done in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East and finally in North America. ASEAN since then concluded the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) and other related organisations to promote growth, peace, security and sustainable development; 3. Bilateral FTAs and Economic Partnership Agreements have been concluded between some ASEAN countries and outside partners, such as Australia, China, Chile, Japan, ROK and U.S.
2.3a MAJOR TRADING AND ECONOMIC COOPERATION GROUPINGS, 2005 Economic Zones Population(million)GDP (US$ million) Exports (US$million) EAST ASIA(A)2,061 8,326,109 2,066,424 EAP & India (B) 3,180 9,921,290 2,193,980 FTAAP(C) 3,508 23,491,550 3,457,847 EU (D) 482 8,215,000 4,855,000 FTAA(E) 810 12,500,000 3,300,000 Note: A- APT(ASEAN plus three)and Taiwan; B-APT, plus Australia, New Zealand (EAP) and India; C- EAP, India, Canada and U.S.A.; D- 25 member countries; E- 34 potential member countries consisting of NAFTA, MERCOSUR, CAFTA, CaFTA and other countries. Source: Ryokichi Hirono (2006), Roadmap Toward EAEC, presented at the Fourth NEAT Conference, Kuala Lumpur.
2.3b A STEADY GROWTH OF INTRA-EAST ASIAN TRADE Intra-ASEAN and Intra-East Asian Exports as % of Total Export, as compared with intra-NAFTA and -EU Economic Zones 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 ASEAN 3.5 4.9 3.9 5.2 7.9 11.8 ANIES 8.5 9.5 12.3 14.0 13.6 16.6 EAST ASIA 22.6 26.3 32.8 38.4 39.5 44.0 E.ASIAAND JAPAN33.6 36.2 41.6 50.1 50.1 56.8 NAFTA n.a. 36.0 36.8 41.9 46.5 46.2 EU 52.6 53.8 64.5 64.1 62.1 61.9 Source: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics Yearbook, 1981-2006
2.3c A STEADY EXPANSION OF INTRA-ASEAN INVESTMENT (US$million) 1995 2000 2003 1995-2003 Brunei 311.3 10,6 35.8 1,380.0 Cambodia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Indonesia 608.9 -232.6 384.0 1,856.5 Lao, PDR 6.5 13.7 3.0 260.8 Malaysia 1,676.5 258.1 251.1 7,009.0 Myanmar 96.7 41.2 28.6 1,038.7 Philippines 241.6 126.5 175.1 1,239.0 Singapore 1,165.1 353.0 420.0 6,574.6 Thailand 160.6 389.0 670.0 5,839.8 Vietnam 387.3 202.4 100.4 2,695.8 ASEAN 4,654.4 1,194.9 2,068.9 27,894.4 MOFA, Thailand and UN Country Team, Thailand (eds.),(2005) GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR DEVELOPMENT: THAILAND CONTRIBUTION TO MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS, Bangkok
III. CHOICES FACING ASIA
3.1 HISTRICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN EAST ASIAN COOPERATION 1. The establishment of ASEAN in 1967, leading to the AFTA and various cooperative schemes among its member countries; 2. The establishment of tripartite PECC in 1972 as a second track organisation to promote trade and economic cooperation among Pacific-rim countries in the wake of the Nixon’s New Economic Policy and the ASEAN Summit in 1976 to cement intra-ASEAN cooperation in all fields in the aftermath of the U.S defeat in Vietnam; 3. The Post-Ministerial Meeting with dialogue partner countries of Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, U.S. and EEC beginning in 1978, later joined by other observers (China in 1996 and India in 2000); 4. The establishment of the APEC in 1990, involving ASEAN and PMC partners, later joined by China, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan and developing into economic and political forum since the APEC Summit in 1993; 5. The proposal by Prime Minister Mahathir for initiating East Asian Economic Caucus and Group in 1992; 6. The establishment of the ASEM in 1996, involving ASEAN, China, Japan and ROK on the Asian side and the EU on the European side;
3.2 INVOLVING ASEAN IN BROADENING EAST ASIAN COOPERATION SINCE LATE 90s 1. The establishment of ASEAN Plus Three Summit Meeting in December 1997 to promote cooperation in trade, finance, investment, culture, security and other issues, following a proposal by Prime Minister Hashimoto of Japan in January 1997, precipitated by the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98, resulting in 1999 in the adoption of a joint statement on Cooperation in East Asia ; 2. The conclusion of China-ASEAN Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement in Phnom Penh in 2002 to establish ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement by 2010 for the older ASEAN member countries and by 2015 for the new ASEAN countries and promote cooperation in five priority areas, agriculture, ICT, HRD, two-way investment and the Mekong river basin development, and setting up of the Network of East Asian Think Tanks (NEAT) and East Asian Forum which have had four meetings since then working in line with a functional approach;
3.2 INVOLVING ASEAN IN BROADENING EAST ASIAN COOPERATION SINCE LATE 90s 3. The Tokyo Declaration at the ASEAN-Japan Heads of State Meeting in 2003 to form ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership within 10 years and East Asian Community (EAC) subsequent to the founding of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 2020; 4. The APT Summit and East Asian Summit (EAS) held in Kuala Lumpur in 2005 and to be held in Cebu in 2006, as agreed respectively at the APT Summit in Vientiane in November 2004 and in Kuala Lumpur in November, 2005; 5. APEC Summit in Hanoi in 2006, agreeing to study the feasibility of the Free Trade Area for Asia and the Pacific (FTAAP) for presentation of its findings in November, 2007 in Australia.
3.3 Potential Benefits and Risks of Alternative Approaches to East Asian Cooperation 1. Existing cooperation mechanisms: ASEAN, APEC and APT 1) Current and potential benefits a) Accelerating economic growth through greater flows of intra-regional trade and investment, with assistance to CLMV; b) Enabling greater competitiveness of their member states respectively on international market, though in a varying degree; c) Providing attractive markets for the rest of the world, while kept open to outsiders; and d) Giving opportunities to some of those outsiders to join ASEAN (Timor L’este, PNG, etc.), APEC (some Latin American countries) and/or APT (India, etc.), resulting in larger economic groupings; 2) Existing and potential risks a) Being pressured to be inward-looking and protectionist; b) Posing a greater threat to outside competitors that may cement their own economic linkages against APT, though not against ASEAN and APEC, eventually generating a trend against the APT under the WTO regime; and c) APEC and APT, continuing to be complementary or becoming competitive not in the distant future ?
3.3 Potential Benefits and Risks of Alternative Approaches to East Asian Cooperation 2. Co-existence of APT Summit and EAS Not preceded, as in APT Summit, by senior officials meetings (SOMs) which prepare documentations for consensus decision, EAS tends to be merely a forum for ASEAN and its dialogue partners and observers in Asia to exchange views on issues most critical to the region and the rest of the world; 1) Current and potential benefits Similar to 1.1.a-d, if EAS should be re-organised along the line of APT Summit. Such possibility is unlikely within a few year, however; 2) Current and potential risks Similar to 1.2.a-c. Furthermore, d) If re-organised in line with APT Summit, greater difficulties in reaching consensus on many issues, domestic or international, as EAS involves many more countries and is more diverse in national interests and with different political, economic and socio-cultural linkages with outside; e) A strong apprehension, if not opposition, of the U.S. to any efforts by APT or any of its major member states to strengthen political and economic ties among Asian countries alone, while the U.S. having gone ahead with NAFTA without participation of Asian countries; f) FTAs already concluded or under negotiation between some APT countries and the U.S.
3.3 Potential Benefits and Risks of Alternative Approaches to East Asian Cooperation 3. ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) and East Asian Community (EAC), when formed by 2020 or earlier. 1) Potential benefits Similar to 1.1.a-d and 2.1.a-d, respectively, for AEC and EAC, though much more institutionalised than ASEAN, APT and EAS now currently organised; e) Benefits extending to non-economic sectors; 2) Potential risks Similar to 1.2.a-c and 2.2.a-f, respectively, for AEC and EAC; d) Much more exposed to competition and encroachment from Expanded EU and NAFTA/FTAA, unless legally and institutionally consolidated earlier;
3.3 Potential Benefits and Risks of Alternative Approaches to East Asian Cooperation 4. Expanding APT/EAS into FTAAP or Co-existence of APT/EAS and FTAAP FTAAP, if organised along the line of APT, 1) Possible benefits Similar to 2.1.a-d, though on a much larger scale, as it involves North America and a few of Latin American countries that are now members of North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA). Furthermore, FTAAP will bring far greater benefits, when Free Trade Area of Americas (FTAA) should be installed by 2010, as already agreed upon, since there will be, after some prolonged negotiation between the two parties, an agreement whereby benefits accruing to FTAA will be bestowed on the member states of FTAAP and vice versa. FTAAP is unlikely within a few year, however; 2) Possible risks Similar to 2.2.a-d.
IV. PROMOTING ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY(ESES) THROUGH REGIONAL COOEPRATION IN ASIA
4.1 REORIENTING MACROECONOMIC AND SECTOR POLICIES TO ENHANCE ESES 1. Accelerated process of investment by multinational corporations (MNCs) in developing Asian countries under growing pressures of deregulation and globalisation, despite their economic merits through their relocation from higher-cost to lower-cost economies in the region, has led to a wider geographical spread of industrialisation and urbanisation with its greater exposure to economic, social and environmental unsustainability such as acute economic and employment fluctuations through higher economic interdependance, increasing poverty incidence, growing income and wealth disparities, social inequities, urban slums, refugees and environmental degradation; 2. Governments of developing Asian countries have attempted to cope with deteriorating ESES by macro-economic and sectoral policies, legislative and administrative measures, but many have failed to manage the process by themselves. Regional and international cooperation has been found essential to improving ESES in their own countries and across the border.
4.2 PROMOTING ESES AT HOME: FROM COMMAND AND CONTROL TO MARKET-BASED INSTRUMENTS 1. Confronted by growing issues of deteriorating ESES, developing Asian countries, once again following the model of industrial countries, installed the legal framework and institutional infrastructures for improving ESES; 2. Given the lack of experiences in dealing with these sustainability issues and the shortage of adequate professional, technological, financial and institutional capabilities, developing Asian countries initially adopted the command and control (C&C) policy measures to deal with the question of unsustainability; 3. Having found the implementation of their macroeconomic, sectoral and institutional policies quite inadequate, these C&C policies have been steadily being supplemented, and even being replaced in many cases, by market-based instruments and by active participation of NGOs;
4.3 PROMOTING ESES FOR HUMAN SURVIVAL THROUGH POLICY REFORMS 1. Centre pieces of Policy Reforms in all developing Asian countries for improving current policies and practices that are consistent with economic, social and environmental sustainability could be: 1) Mainstreaming ESES concerns in all macro- and micro-economic policies and practices; 2) Pro-poor policy measures in all macroeconomic and sectoral policies to facilitate poverty reduction, gender equality and people participation; 3) Application of the Polluter-Pay-Principle to all public and private economic activities; 4) Stronger political commitment to effective enforcement of all laws and regulations for ESES;
4.4 PROMOTING ESES FOR HUMAN SURVIVAL THROUGH INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS 2. Some Measures for Institutional Reforms and Capacity Building in all developing Asian economies are: 1) Streamlining market-based instruments for more effective policy implementation and results for sustainable development (SD) and a greater need for Peer Reviews at the regional level; 2) Development by all these regional groupings and institutions of Better and Best Practices for mutual lesson learning in ESES policies, management and institution building; 3) Expanding and improving SD education and learning at schools, communities and enterprises in line with the U.N. Decade of Education for SD 2005-2014; 4) Expanding and improving regional and sub-regional cooperation in ESES policies and management including research, education and training for capacity building in all relevant areas on the basis of country ownership and agreed priorities;
4.4 PROMOTING ESES FOR HUMAN SURVIVAL THROUGH INSTITUTIONSL REFORMS 5) Need for taking issue- and country-specific approaches to ESES cooperation in the light of diversity of countries in any of these regional groupings in the Asian region; 6) Exploring a possibility of institutionalising sub-regional cooperation mechanisms in Northeast Asia, as in Southeast Asia 7) Strengthening the effectiveness of any of these regional institutions, while mobilising the support of the United Nations and its agencies, Bretton Woods Institutions, regional development banks, Global Environment Facilities (GEF) and others in both enriching ESES database, research and training and promoting ESES cooperation in the region; and 8) Strengthening networks and partnership among different stakeholders, government and non-government alike, engaged in ESES cooperation at local, national, regional and international levels.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION FOR FURTHER INQUIRIES, PLEASE CONTACT THE FOLLOWING FAX NUMBER AND EMAIL ADDRESS: 81(0)3-39202145 ryokichi@iea.att.ne.jp