George H. Atkinson, Ph.D. Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary of State

1. The Globalization of Science and Technology: U.S. and International Strategies George H. Atkinson, Ph.D. Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary of State World Bank Global Forum Building Science, Technology, and Innovation for Sustainable Growth and Poverty Reduction Washington: February 14, 2007

3. Overview of Remarks Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary • 1. S&T in 21st century global affairs • Evolution of U.S. S&T models • Recognizing 21st century global challenges for S&T • a. Globally competitive innovation systems • b. Aging population demographics • c. S&T alter societal and governmental institutions • The Conundrum for Science Advice in the 21st Century

4. 1. S&T in 21st century global affairs Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary • Observations • S&T advances have enormous, immediate influence on global and national economies, and on international relations. • Nations are largely shaped by their expertise in and access to S&T. • Major S&T advances of our time not only offer remarkable new opportunities, but often challenge our social institutions and ethical principles. • In an increasingly global world, accurate scientific information must inform policy makers and policy makers must promote justified scientific goals.

5. Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary 1. S&T in 21st century global affairs Global Leadership in S&T is transitory In the 19th century, and at the outset of the 20th century, the dominant global S&T power was Europe. Since the middle of the 20th century, the dominant global S&T power has been the United States. In the 21st century, a new internationally collaborative reality is emerging since: 1. the scientific challenges are themselves more complex in nature and global in impact 2. scientific research itself is increasingly international 3. Technologies (products) are developed within a global framework

6. 1. S&T in 21st century global affairs Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary At the outset of the 21st century, S&T leadership continues to be dynamic Expanding regional and international engagement: Successful 21st century S&T innovation in any country will increasingly depend the degree to which it can establish international S&T cooperation. Encouraging a balance between short-term applications of existing knowledge and long-term, risk taking S&T research: A system of societal investments in scientific research and technological development that does not accept a reasonable degree of failure as the price for successful innovation is a system that is itself doomed to failure.

7. 2. Evolution of U.S. S&T models Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary • Vannevar Bush (1945) • Science: The Endless Frontier • The U.S. government supports basic science research in the universities, while industry pursues applied research. • Established NIH and NSF, and set the paradigm for the ascendance of American science. • The innovation path is a linear, unidirectional process: Basic Research  Applied Research  Development  Commercial Production

8. Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary 2. Evolution of U.S. S&T modelsLessons Learned What characteristics of the U.S. system made it successful and which are relevant to the future? 1. U.S. made a consistent commitment to education, and especially to higher education and scientific research. U.S. research universities would not be what they are today without 50 years of Federal support. 2. U.S. fostered an open, welcoming environment that encouraged students and researchers from around the world to participate in the U.S. system. 3. U.S. private sector converted many scientific advances into world-class technologies promoting societal well-being and creating new global economies. U.S. S&T remains a major economic force globally and widely respected worldwide

9. Pasteur’s Quadrant: S&T Innovation Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary Consider use? NOYES YES Quest for basic research? NO A new appraisal of basic S&T research and innovation

10. Gross domestic product (Billion 2004 US$) Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary

11. 3. Recognizing 21st century global challenges for S&T Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary Lessons Learned? 1. The characteristics of societies in the 21st century are changing rapidly from those in 20th century and in directions that make designing a successful S&T innovation system exceptionally difficult. New concepts are needed! 2. Global leadership in S&T depends on how well the educational, research, and innovation (private sector) communities recognize and respond to a highly competitive and potentially aggressive 21st century global S&T environment. 3. Risk-taking research that accepts a reasonable degree of failure, both for short-term applications of S&T and for long-term commitments to S&T research, is a critical element in 21st century S&T innovation.

12. 3. Recognizing 21st century global challenges for S&T Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary • Consider three primary issues affecting S&T strategies at the outset of the 21st century • worldwide innovation systems that are increasingly competitive intellectually and in global markets • a significantly expanding global population with rapidly aging demographics in specific countries • S&T advances that could dramatically alter societal and governmental institutions as well as challenge ethical and social mores

13. Physical Review and Physical Review Letters Published 1983 - 1984 Courtesy of The American Physical Society

14. Population Growth: Developed vs. Developing Countries Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision; and estimates by the Population Reference Bureau.

15. Percent elderly, 2000 Less than 7.49 7.5 to 14.99 15 to 22.49 22.5 to 29.99 30 or higher Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (New York: United Nations, 2005).

16. Percent elderly, 2050 Less than 7.49 7.5 to 14.99 15 to 22.49 22.5 to 29.9 30 or higher Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (New York: United Nations, 2005).

17. Life expectancy vs. GDP Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary

19. 3. Recognizing 21st century global challenges for S&T Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary • S&T as a bridge between cultures • Global S&T cooperation can infuse the liberal principles of science throughout the fabric of societies • Promotes access to information and knowledge, factors that empower citizens • Promotes transparency through open publication • Promotes meritocracy of ideas through peer review • Supports creativity and critical thinking • Promotes mutual respect for diverse views • Builds a “Knowledge-Based Society”

20. Recognizing 21st century • global challenges for S&T Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary • Lessons being learned ? • Policy makers increasingly depend on an accurate and timely understanding of the current opportunities to implement existing S&T understanding as well as the practical significance of “emerging and at-the-horizon” S&T advances anticipated by researchers. • Policies tailored to supportBOTH applications of existing S&T knowledge and the educators and researchers training the next generation are critical elements in successful innovation. • More scientists and engineers who can identify the most effective balance in a given society are needed in the societal and governmental decision making process.

21. Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary 3. Recognizing 21st century global challenges for S&T “In the 21st century, American foreign policy must have a sound scientific foundation. And we must build on that foundation to stem the spread of infectious diseases such as HIV/AIDs, to stop proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, to lift people out of poverty, and lead states onto the path of sustainable development.” Secretary of State Powell – May 2004 “Openness in recognizing that there are no boundaries and therefore keeping ourselves open to other people, making sure that we are at the center of scientific discourse ….” Secretary of State Rice – January, 2005 Jefferson Science Fellows program Global Dialogues on Emerging S&T (5 countries and regions) Perspectives on the Future of S&T conferences Global Science Partnerships for the 21st Century

22. 5. The Conundrum for Science in the 21st Century Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary “What man desires is not knowledge, but certainty.” Winston Churchill “If all economists (scientists?) were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion.” George Bernard Shaw “The aim of science is not to open the door to infinite wisdom, but to set a limit to infinite error.” Bertolt Brecht, The Life of Galileo (1939)

23. 5. The Conundrum for Science in the 21st Century Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary “The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.” Bertrand Russell “...there is no idea so stupid that you can’t find a professor who will believe it.” H.L. Mencken “For every complicated problem, there is always a simple solution… and it is always wrong! H.L. Mencken

24. 5 5. The Conundrum for Science in the 21st Century Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary “The aim of science is not to open the door to infinite wisdom, but to set a limit to infinite error.” Bertolt Brecht, The Life of Galileo (1939) “Most of us are more responsible for what we decide not to do than for what we do.” Voltaire

25. Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary STAS WEBSITE www.state.gov/g/stas