1 / 51

December 2007 Predictive Profiling and Terrorist Threat Mitigation Anaheim, CA

December 2007 Predictive Profiling and Terrorist Threat Mitigation Anaheim, CA. What is “Profiling”?. The nature of the terrorist threat. CRIME. TERRORISM. Terrorist Acts vs. Criminal Acts. 1. Modern Terrorism 2. State Sponsored Terrorism 3. Detailed Planning

phuoc
Download Presentation

December 2007 Predictive Profiling and Terrorist Threat Mitigation Anaheim, CA

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. December 2007Predictive Profiling and Terrorist Threat MitigationAnaheim, CA

  2. What is “Profiling”?

  3. The nature of the terrorist threat CRIME TERRORISM

  4. Terrorist Acts vs. Criminal Acts

  5. 1. Modern Terrorism 2. State Sponsored Terrorism 3. Detailed Planning 4. Sophisticated but Not Complex Execution 5. Building a Legitimate Profile 6. Highly Motivated The Nature of the Terrorist Threat

  6. Indiscriminate Soft Targets Politically Motivated Driven by Media Exposure Usage of WMD Modern Terrorism

  7. Modern Terrorism Political Aspect Democracy Totalitarian Terrorism Assassination

  8. Unlimited Funds Ability to Assume Legitimate Identities Ability to Train in a Safe Environment Working Under Diplomatic Cover 5. Accessibility to Means of Aggression State Sponsored Terrorism

  9. $250,000 www.belizeretire.com

  10. “Karine A” $7m

  11. One to Five Years of Careful Planning Learning Security Loopholes Learning the Operational Environment of the Target Rehearsing the Plan (Dry Runs) Detailed Planning

  12. Swift and Aggressive Execution Element of Surprise Utilizing Available Resources Multiple Targets Simultaneously Using Suicide Bombers (“Smart Bomb”) Multiple Bombs in One Target Sophisticated but Not Complex Execution

  13. Assuming New Identities 2. Blending In as Law-Abiding Citizens 3. Becoming “Normal” Social Participants 4. Utilizing “Mules” Building a Legitimate Profile

  14. April 1994 – Hussein Mikdad • Hezbollah Operation • Stolen UK Passport (John Newman) • Infiltration through Israeli Immigration • Prolonged Surveillance Activity • Failure due to “working accident” with the explosive charges

  15. The Hezbollah Infiltration MO

  16. An International Network

  17. The Doctors’ Plot – UK July 2007 Mohammed Asha Bilal Abdullah Kafeel Ahmed Palestinian, Born in SA and raised in Jordan. On a year-long license to practice medicine in the UK Born in the UK Trained in Iraq as a doctor and was practicing medicine in the UK Indian Muslim born in India and raised in Saudi Arabia. Studying in UK for a PHD in engineering Video

  18. The Ann Marie Murphy Case Name: Ann Marie Murphy Gender: Female Age: 26 Nationality: Irish Visual Suspicion Indicator: A Pregnant Woman Traveling Alone Possible AMO: Use of an innocent person to deliver a bomb onto the aircraft (“Mule”)

  19. Q: Good morning Ma’am, my name is Erez and I’m the security officer in charge of the security of your flight. With your permission I’d like to ask you a couple of questions A: Sure, go ahead Q: May I ask what is the purpose of your visit to Israel? A: I’m going to see the holy places Q: Have you ever been to Israel before? A: No. this is my first time

  20. Q: Do you know anyone in Israel or in the West Bank? A: I told you – This is my first visit… Q: But do you know anyone there? A: No. Q: How long do you plan to stay in Israel? A: Two weeks.

  21. Q: Where are you going to stay? A: In Hilton Hotels. Q: Where Exactly? A: Hilton Tel Aviv and Hilton Bethlehem. Q: Do you have reservations for these hotels? A: I don’t need reservations – I work for the Hilton Hotel Chain.

  22. Q: That is great. May I ask in what capacity? A: I am a chamber maid. Q: Do you happen to have your employee I.D with you? A: Yes I do (Presents the I.D.) Q: Did you call ahead of time to let anyone know that you are coming? A: No.

  23. Q: What will you do if the hotels are fully booked when you arrive? A: I will have to stay in a different hotel…Why are you asking all these questions? Q: As I explained, this is a standard procedure. I am asking these questions to insure the safety and security of the flight. Do you have funds in case you need to stay in an alternative hotel? A: I have 100 pounds in cash and a credit card. Q: May I see the credit card? A: (Presents a retail store credit card valid only in certain retail chains in GB)

  24. Q: Ma’am, this is not a valid credit card for use in Israel. A: Well…I’ll probably not need it anyways… Q: Ma’am, did anyone ask you to take anything with you on board the flight? A: No. Q: I am asking this because in the past there have been cases in which innocent passengers where used to carry explosives onto the aircraft without their knowledge. Are you sure everything here belongs to you? A: Yes

  25. Name: Ann Marie Murphy Gender: Female Age: 26 Nationality: Irish Suspicion Indicator from questioning A Pregnant Woman Traveling Alone       Insufficient funds for the duration and nature of the trip Incoherent story There is no Hilton hotel in Bethlehem

  26. Mitigation – Thorough inspection of Ann Marie’s suitcase Findings 2 kg of Semtex explosives with a barometric mechanism hidden inside of a calculator Explosives came to London via Syrian diplomatic mail Operator – Nezar Hindawi Success 375 lives were saved War between Israel and Syria was prevented

  27. May 2002 – Pi Glilot Gas Depot • Use of a mule • Prolonged surveillance • Estimated death toll – 20,000 • Bomb activation through remote control • Explosion occurred

  28. Terrorists’ Motivation

  29. Motive + Opportunity = TerroristPotential

  30. Marking to • Marking • Intelligence Gathering • Surveillance • Planning • Tooling Up • Rehearsing / Training • Execution • Getaway Getaway Execution

  31. Predictive Profiling Definition Predictive Profiling is a method of threat assessment designed to predict and categorize the potential for inappropriate, harmful, criminal and/or terrorist behavior and consequently deploy the procedures required in order to eliminate these threats.

  32. What was the nationality of the first terrorist to attack Ben Gurion AP? Kozo Okamoto - 1972

  33. Patrick Argüello - 1970 • American Mother • Nicaraguan Father • Raised in L.A. and South America • Sandinista Terrorist

  34. Aggressor’s Method of Operation (AMO) The Course of Action Used by Terrorists to Achieve Their Objective Establishing a commercial company to be involved in a terrorist activity Recruiting an employee from within the protected environment Using a “mule” to deliver a bomb into a protected environment (unintentionally/semi-unintentionally) Using emergency vehicle to transport means of aggression

  35. AMO vs. Scenario An AMO represents a proven actionable terrorist method. A Scenario is an outline or model of an expected or supposed sequence of events. You prove a scenario using AMOs

  36. Suspicion Indicator - Definition An indication based on known (or predicted) terrorist or criminal methods of operations or deviation from a typical profile that may lead one to believe that an observed situation (persons and/or objects) may have the potential for harming the protected environment and its inhabitants. An indication based on known (or predicted) terrorist or criminal methods of operations or deviation from a typical profile that may lead one to believe that an observed situation (persons and/or objects) may have the potential for harming the protected environment and its inhabitants.

  37. Threat vs. Suspicion Threat is suspicion that was not refuted

  38. The Security Process D etect suspicion D method of operation etermin D eploy against the MO Where did we fail in 9/11?

  39. The OODA Loop

  40. The OODA Loop "In order to win, we should operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than our adversaries--or, better yet, get inside [the] adversary's Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action time cycle or loop. ... Such activity will make us appear ambiguous (unpredictable) thereby generate confusion and disorder among our adversaries.“ John Boyd, "Patterns of Conflict"

  41. The OODA Loop Stuck in OO OO OO OO OO OO OO OO

  42. Threat vs. Risk Threat is constant while Risk is a variable

  43. Marriage SIs: late, strange perfume, hair messed-up AMO? Cheating Do you assume THREAT or RISK when it comes to your relationship???

  44. How do you protect your home? Who? Why? Where? how? When ?

  45. Suicide Bomber Detected – Natania Israel

  46. Infiltration Using European Passports Asif Hanif and Omar Sharif traveled from Britain to Israel under the auspices of the International Solidarity Movement’s (ISM) Alternative Tourism Group, the precursor to the ISM. Both terrorists told Israeli border police they were entering for purposes of Alternative Tourism. They met with the ISM in Gaza at a memorial for Rachel Corrie.

  47. Mike’s Place – April 30 2003 Avi Tabib – Bouncer at Mike’s Place

More Related