Elmar Altvater Overcoming the economic and the environmental crisis: the solidarity economy

1. Elmar AltvaterOvercoming the economic and the environmental crisis: the solidarity economy • The multiple crisis of finance, of the „real economy“, of energy, the climate and of food • The dynamics of the financial crisis: increasing financial claims • The lagging production of real surpluses due to the decreasing marginal efficiency of capital (Keynes) or a falling rate of profit (Marx) • The externalisation of capital costs by overloading the natural environment and increasing the rate of exploitation • New investment opportunities, a continuation of the fossil model or a „solar solidarity economy“? elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de

2. Per-Capita-Income; World and most Important Regions(in 1990 International Dollars)Source: Maddision, Angus (2001): The World Economy – A Millenial Perspective, (OECD) Paris: 28 Differentiation of Development; Increase of Growth Rates and of Global Inequality Equality of Levels of per capita income elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de

3. These tendencies have a long history – since the industrial revolution, i.e. real subsumtion of labour and of nature under capital. However, there is something new in the late 20th and early 21st century… • The „great transformations“ of our times: The growth of monetary wealth due to growing unevenesss of distribution and the necessity of indebtedness: The new „debt cycles“ • 1970s: Break Down of Bretton Woods • Liberalisation of currency transactions and of financial flows • Oil crisis and petro$-recycling etc • 1980s: Debt crisis of the 3rd world (less developed countries) • Opening of formerly protected markets; Victory of neoliberal policy-projects • 1990s: The „end of history“ after the collapse of actually existing socialism • The emergence of a global financial system (financial innovations and neoliberal „financialisation“ of the economies and the financial crisis of emerging, dynamic economies in Asia and Latin America • 2000: New economy bubble: (highly developed countries, in the first place: the USA) • 2007: The subprime crisis and the global financial and ecnomic crisis since 2008: whole world elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de

4. The changing patterns of accumulation… • The Interest rate is above the profit rate since the end of the 1970s in the industrialised world and in other countries even more accentuated (due to the spread on risks) • Financial accumulation (speculation) is more attractive than productive investment • However: the financial surplus must be produced in the real econom y • The capitalism of the 21st century is characterised by severe financial repression elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de

5. Financial markets and financial repression In an environment of currency competition and financial liberalisation Pressures grow to make Financial places Comparatively attractive Through: high returns on capital and monetary stability Consequence: Redistribution of income flows To monetary wealth owners: „accumulation by dispossession“ Pressure on labour, On wages and employment The informal economy grows Pressure on nature: Exhsaustion Of resources and overload of sinks elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de

6. Measures to increase surpluses, growth, and profits sharpen the social, political and above all the ecological crisis Pressure on labourcosts Pressure on otherinput-costs Increaseofproductivity (Lisbon-strategy) Socialcrisis Combustionof fossil energy Climatecrisis Conflictbetween:Energyforhumans (food) andforMaschines (fuel) Ecologicalcrisis elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de

7. The causes of the financial crfisis are increasing monetary claims and shrinking economic surpluses Monetary economy „Real“ economy • Self-reference of financial markets • Liberalisation and deregulation • Generation of high financial claims by means of „financial innovations“ • „Accumulation by dispossession“ • Greed of individuals • Decraesing surplus-production of the real economy • Falling profit rates of invested capital • Tendency of decreasing rreal growth rates • Saturation and stagnation-tendencies in the developed world elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de

8. Itseems so asifthefinancialsectorisindependent on the real accumulationprocess Capital isaccumulatedasFictitiouscapital Methodis: „Originateanddistribute“ The claims must beserviced out of real incomeflows, produced in the „real economy“ ofproductionandservices Thereforetheautonomyoffinancialmarketsis limited in time, spaceandsize elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de

9. Ca. 4100 Mrd USD Enourmous losses of the financial sector since the outbreak of the crisis Ca. 2000 Mrd. USD (BoE: 2800 Mrd USD Ca. 1000 Mrd USD Oktober/ November 2008 spring 2008 April 2009 elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de

10. OECD, Economic Outlook, June 2009 elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de

11. The ecological dimensions of the multiple crisis: disadvantages of fossil capitalism: the energy-system is closed and limited…. • „Taps“ or „Nature-Input“: Fossil resourses have a limited reach: PEAKOIL • „Sinks“ and „dumping sites“ have a limited carrying capacity: The effects on the environment and the GREENHOUSE EFFECT • The nessessity of regulation of taps and sinks: challenges of a new PETRO-GOVERNANCE • The effects of the limits on social systems, on labour, employment and daily life etc. -->limits of growth elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de

12. elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de

13. Already (in the past) consumed and (for the future) proved ReservesFigures from BP und ASPO CO2 BP ASPO Until 2005 already consumed: 944 bn Barrel Secure Reserves 748 bn Barrel (ASPO) 1148 bn Barrel (BP) Unsecured Reserves: ? elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de

14. An advertisement of Chevron in the „Financial Times“, July 26, 2005 elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de

15. Possible Conflicts at the end of the fossil age Geo-economic Strategies around „Paper Oil“ • Influencing the Formation of the Oil Price • Influencing the Recycling of Petro-Dollars • Influence on the Choice of the Currency in which the Oilprice is Invoiced Geo-political Strategies on „Wet Oil“ • Pressure on Oil Producers, to adapt their Production to Demand (The Decisive Role of the „Swing Producer“ • Development of Oil Subsitutes Diplomatic Pressure on Oil-Producers • Use of Political and Military Pressure on Oil Producers • Occupation of Oil Territories • Control of Oil-Logistics (Pipelines, Tankship- and other Transport Routes etc.) • Developing a new form of „Petro-Governance“ The Amalgamation of geo-economic and geo-political strategies in neoliberal and neo-conservative approaches Consequence: a new „great game“ in Oil-Regions: Middle-East, Caucasus, Central Asia, but also in Africa… An emerging „Petro-Imperialism“? elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de

16. Summary: Economic Policy-Alternatives • 1st Regulation of the financial system • Financial transaction tax • Prohibition of „toxic“ businesses • Closing of tax havens etc. • Support of micro- and cooperative finance • Regulation of investment-banking in order to disincentive speculation • 2nd Reduction of global imbalances • The establishment of a new currency-system because of the untolerable indebtedness of the USA and the danger of an uncrontrollable devaluation of the USD • Structural adjustment for deficit- and surplus-countries? • The new role of the SDR • 3rd Alternative economic policy • Legal regulation of minimum wages • Decent labour instead of precarious labour; regulation of informal work • Reduction of working hours • Citizen-income • A „green new deal“? elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de

17. “Green shares” in state intervention-packages Quelle: FTD, 29.6.09 elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de

18. Aspects of a „Green New Deal“ I • The historicalreferencetothe New Deal ofthe 1930s isof a dubiousnature • The ideaof a „global andgreensocialcontract “ (e.g. Lisbon-Group) makesreferencetoearly bourgeois virtuesand „contracttheories“ whichare not powerful enoughastoexplain modern socialconflicts • In contrasttotheideasof a socialcontractaretheexpectationsofmarket-basedinstruments in climatepolicy etc. (emissionstradeor REDD) • The contradictinginterestsof powerful lobbiesandtheillusionsof CSR elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de

19. Aspects of a „Green New Deal“ II • The illusionofsustainablegrowth. Economicsurplusesnecessarilyconsumenaturalresourcesandsinksandtherefarehave a negative effect on nature • Is itpossibletochangetheenergyregimewithoutchangingthepatternofconsumtionandproduction? • The roleofthestate in a capitalistsocietyanditsinterventions must criticallybeexamined • Also greeninvestment must befinanced: theimpactofthefinancialcrisis must betakenintoconsideration elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de

20. There are many meanings of a “Green New Deal”… New Deal Green Invest ment Social model Growth Green “Realpolitik” + + Social model New Deal Green Invest ment Growth Green Fundamen talism + - + New Deal Green Invest ment Nothing green Social model Growth - + New Deal Green Invest ment GND Beyond capitalism Social Model Growth and capital accumulation - + elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de

21. Instead of Petro- and Climate conflicts a strategy of Sustainability in a solidarity society • Sustainability by opening the closed fossil energy regime for solar energy: an ecological necessity • Is it suitable to change only the energy-source without changing economic and social forms? • No! • Which is the social formation matching a post-fossil solar energy system? • Some kind of cooperative socialism, of a solidarity economy and society • Which are the social movements pushing the fossil to a renewable energy system? • Socio-territorial movements, trade unions… elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de

22. Solidarity economy • The “moral dimension” in a solidarity economy • The “monetary dimension” of the society based on work and the requirements of regulation of financial markets • The crucial role of global regulation of financial markets • The decisive role of politics and of the nation state to set the social and legal framework of a solidarity economy • The importance of public goods and of the reappropriation of the natural and cultural commons elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de

23. Conclusion • There is no simple exit from the multi-layered crisis of finance, of the economy, of energy, the climate and food • A new investment-cycle, even when massively green, hits limits of nature: peakoil, the climate-system, the evolution of the biosphere, the provision of food etc. • A “de-growth”- and “de-globalisation”-strategy is only possible in the social framework of a cooperative, solidarity economy on the basis of renewable energies • And it needs the regulation of financial markets, i.e. re-conquest of political sovereignty on financial markets and on the economy • By means of an extension of economic democracy elmar.altvater@fu-berlin.de