Outreach & Exponentials in a Flat World: Extreme Collaboration

1. Outreach & Exponentials in a Flat World: Extreme Collaboration Thomas J. Greene, Outreach officer MIT CSAIL January 17, 2006

2. WHY REACH OUT ? WHY COLLABORATE ? A pragmatic answer

3. My premise is:The basic rules for 6 billion humans are different (or soon will be) For people in developed and (for many rapidly developing countries) each period in the human life cycle is very different: • Birth: Surviving birth is not the problem • Education:Personal, online at any time • Work:Information for collaboration and 5 careers in 40 years • Recreation :More leisure timeso entertainment is a focus • Death:Live 90 years, 1/3 of this in a new model

4. Globalization • Innovate without emigrate • Distance is not an issue • Language is not an issue • Design can occur any where • THE WORLD IS FLAT (…T. Friedman)

5. What is truly new?--IT Instant Communication Ideas leap barriers of distance and language Ideas leap the time barrier using IT(internet,telcom,digital media) Accelerated Change Not print , but now ezines, blogs, virtual communities. Technology change not at automobile speed but at light speed Networked global sized people and information Instant transportation(almost) and instant information

7. Outline • A review • A brief history of population change • A brief history of technology change • What to do • Conclusion

8. A Review of some ideas

9. Not linear- (but exponentials) Not lines - (but “j-curves”) • The web is 10 years old, the computer is 50 years old, the jet plane is 70 years old and the ocean liner is 100 years old. • Technology creation has been accelerating. It is approaching exponential and those human activities coupled to technology also rapidly changing. (Exponetially?) • Thomas Malthus, an 18th century English scholar, observed in an essay written in 1798 that the growth of the human population is fundamentally different from the growth of the food supply to feed that population. He wrote that the human population was growing geometrically [i.e. exponentially] while the food supply was growing arithmetically [i.e. linearly]. He concluded that left unchecked, it would only be a matter of time before the world's population would be too large to feed itself.

10. A Review(we know this, but it is important here , so let us review and ponder it ) Consider : Linear change F = a*x vs. Exponential f = a**x For example if a=2 and x=2 then (F=2*3 = 6) but (f= 2**3 = 2*2*2 =8) And if a=4 and N=3 then (F=4*3 = 12) but (f = 4**3 = 4*4*4 =64) For bigger numbers the difference is huge

11. Constant Linear Growth • Start with 1 object at time zero • At time 1 you have 2 • At time 2 you have 3 • At …3 …4 • At …4 …5 • At …5 …6 • At time 6 you have 7 … 5 4 3 2 1 t = 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

12. But for an exponential growth such as • Algae : cell division • Geometric growth 32 64 … 8 16 4 2 1 t = 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

13. f(x) = ax Graphically f(x) = x

15. A brief history of people (Is this a truly special time for humanity?)

16. Population & Time - The Growth rate - a phase change? • 35 BCE-Julius Caesar -- 1 Million people • 2000 A.D. -- 6 Billion people

18. World population distribution-an Imbalance US&CANADA=310M (5%) ASIA=3.68B (61%) EUROPE=729M (12%) AFRICA=784M (13%) LATIN AMERICA=519M (9%) OCEANIA =30M (.01%) SOURCE - HTTP://WWW.UN.ORG/DEPTS/UNSD

19. An Imbalance-The world pyramid By C.K. Prahalad & A. Hammond SOURCE= HBR, SEPT 2002, “SERVING THE WORLD’S POOR PROFITABLY”,

20. If the world was a village of 100 people * 52 would be women, 48 would be men,30 would be children,70 would be adults.7 would be aged. * 90 would be heterosexual, 10 would be homosexual, 70 would be nonwhite, 30 would be white * 61 would be Asian, 13 African, 13 from North and South America, 12 Europeans, one from the South Pacific. * 33 would be Christians, 19 believers in Islam, 13 would be Hindus, and 6 would follow Buddhist teachings. 5 would believe that there are spirits in the trees and rocks and in all of nature. 24 would be believe in other religions, or would believe in no religion. * 17 would speak Chinese, 9 English, 8 Hindi and Urdu, 6 Spanish, 6 Russian, and 4 would speak Arabic. That would account for half the village. The other half would speak Bengal, Portuguese, Indonesian, Japanese, German, French, or some other language.

21. Of the 100 people in this village, o 20 are under nourished, 1 is dying of starvation, while 15 are overweight. o Of the wealth in this village, 6 people own 59% (all of them from the United States), 74 people own 39%, and 20 people share the remaining 2%. o Of the energy of this village, 20 people consume 80%, and 80 people share the remaining 20%. o 75 people have some supply of food and a place to shelter them from the wind and the rain, but 25 do not. 17 have no clean, safe water to drink. o If you have money in the bank, then you are among the richest 8. o If you have a car, you are among the richest 7. o Among the villagers, 1 has a college education. 2 have computers. 14 cannot read. o 48 can NOT speak and act according to their faith/conscience without harassment, Imprisonment, torture or death, o 20 live in fear of death by bombardment, armed attack, landmines, or of rape or kidnapping by armed groups, In one year, 1 will die, but in the same year, 2 will be born, so at the year's end the of village will be 101.

22. A brief history of technology. (Is this a truly special time for humanity?)

23. Technology & Time - The Growth rate • 3000 BCE --ABACUS • 1450 -- GUTTENBERG PRESS • 1837 -- TELEGRAPH • 1876 -- TELEPHONE • 1948 -- TRANSISTOR • 1994 -- WWW GOES GRAPHIC • 2000 -- DRAFT OF HUMAN GENOME • 2006 -- ?

24. 1900-2000

25. The pressure Forcing Faster Change • The cause is Information Technology (IT)… • Ideas as information explode across space in zero time , crossing traditional cultural and language barriers • For example, In India, help desks and now course tutors serve the english-speaking world • Information is free? Instantaneous, and global?

26. Information Space Change -Is it now in a Phase Change? • A water molecule can exist in different phases, as it changes phases its world is very different , but only in hind-site • Solid----> • Liquid----> • Gas ---->?

27. Butterfly- Network effect

28. Generation Gap--accelerating change effects? "The Generation Gap at Work," studied co-existence of four different generations of workers within the U.S. workforce and frequently, within small offices. To find a framework for understanding the gaps across generations and offered tips to manage these sometimes baffling and tense relationships smoothly.They divided the workforce into "Matures," born between 1909 and 1945;---Matures are the silent generation. They value sacrifice, commitment, and financial and social conservatism. They remember the Depression. They're the 'Establishment.'" "Boomers," born between 1946 and 1964;---"Boomers value themselves. They're competitive, anti-authority. They grew up with Vietnam, Watergate, Woodstock. They have high expectations. They're diplomatic, loyal and want validation. And they value privacy. "Gen Xers," born between 1965 and 1978;---"Gen Xers were the first latchkey kids. They're entrepreneurial, pragmatic, straightforward. They grew up with AIDS, MTV, PCs, divorce. "Millennials," born from 1979 onward.---The Millennials are neotraditionalists, optimistic and very community-centered. They're technologically adept and busy, busy. They grew up with the O.J. Simpson trial, Columbine and 9/11. They're versatile. They write blogs about their lives," said Jones. What this means to us is that co-workers may have fundamentally different approaches to work, teamwork, privacy, respect and authority. • SOURCE=February 2, 2005 issue of MIT Tech Talk (Volume 49, Number 16).

29. 3 things are very, very different….

30. Informationis free (almost?) • The Web is Billions of pages, • Search engines retrieve information instantly. (Google is now a dictionary word)?

31. It is only information (--and it is free) • Books --3x1000 to 10x1000 • (to 1000x1000) • The Million Book Project -CMU, China, India

32. Blogs

33. 2. Language is not a barrier

34. 35 languages

36. 3. Knowledge is easily accessed. Information + Structure = Knowledge Open Course Ware @ MIT-- 1200 courses --on-line --free! The OCW project has been empowering students of all ages, world-wide, with the courses of MIT. (Other Universities are joining this effort and publishing their courses)

37. Open research? Project Dspace is spreading--

39. The flat world • is covered with a tightly woven • information fabric. • An incident anywhere on the planet • can effect everything. • Incidents may be: • Economic • Political • Agricultural • Ecological, etc.

40. What to do….

41. Collaborative Business Processes The Network is the Value-Delivery System

42. Wisdom enough… Upon this gifted age, in its dark hour, Rains from the sky a meteoric shower Of facts … they lie unquestioned , uncombined. Wisdom enough to leech us all our ill Is daily spun,but there exists no loom To weave it into fabric - ---Edna St Vincent Millay, ( 1892-1950 )

43. The Challenges • Extreme competition • Globalization • Rapidly changing technologies • Forces beyond your control (world events are now directly coupled to your activity)

44. A New Model?-- (Business Week -- China & India)

45. Extreme competition • Established companies should brace themselves for a future of extreme competition, which will make the pressures of the 1980s and 1990s look tame by comparison. Incumbents must understand how powerful forces are aggregating once-distinct product and geographic markets, enhancing market-clearing efficiency, and increasing specialization in the supply chain. They should respond by adopting a new approach to strategy—one that combines speed, openness, flexibility, and forward-focused thinking. • Mature companies must learn to be young at heart. Boundless new opportunities await executives who recognize that the days of slow change are over • SOURCE: Mckinsey Quarterly, 23 May 2005 • http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/article_abstract.aspx?ar=1564&L2=21&L3=114

46. Asia’s edge

47. New Economy -No Borders?

48. A turning point ….

49. SCIAM

50. Scientific American -Sept. 2005 Economics in a Full World The global economy is now so large that society can no longer safely pretend it operates within a limitless ecosystem. Developing an economy that can be sustained within the finite biosphere requires new ways of thinking ------- By Herman E. Daly