Climate Change: Northwest U.S. Forests

1. Climate Change: Northwest U.S. Forests Ronald P. Neilson USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station Corvallis, OR, USA

2. MAPSS Team(Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System)USFSPacific Northwest Research StationManaging Disturbance Regimes Program Ron Neilson, Leader Jim Lenihan, USFS Ray Drapek, USFS Lisa Balduman, USFS Cooperators: John Wells, OSU Bear Pitts , OSU Dominique Bachelet, TNC Dave Conklin, OSU

3. Outline • Future Scenarios • Uncertainty Sampling • Thermal Responses • Elevational and Latitudinal • Moisture Responses • Combined Thermal, Precipitation and CO2-induced Water-Use-Efficiency Increases • Multi-Scale Assessment – Dynamic General Vegetation Modeling of Global to Local Impacts • Interdecadal Climate Variability Effects on Fire and Runoff • Intrinsic Landscape Sensitivities at multiple scales

4. Airmass Regions of North America Vegetation Dynamics – Temporal Patterns And Climate Variability

5. But note the slope of Past Compared to Future Temperature Change Variations of the Earth’s Surface Temperature: 1000 to 2100 Similar to Glacial – Interglacial Temperature Change Uncertainty is due to both Emissions Scenarios and Climate Models • 1000 to 1861, N. Hemisphere, proxy data; • 1861 to 2000 Global, Instrumental; • 2000 to 2100, SRES projections

6. Some areas are projected to become wetter, others drier with an overall increase projected Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

7. Some areas are projected to become wetter, others drier with an overall increase projected Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

8. August 6, 2008 The Water Cycle moves most of the energy from the Tropics to the Poles!

9. April 27, 2009

10. June 4, 2009

11. July 12, 2009

12. September 22, 2009

14. Change in Mean Monthly Temperature (Degrees C) 2070-2099 vs 1961-1990 A1B B1 A2 MIROC HAD CSIRO

15. Percent Change in Precipitation 2070-2099 vs 1961-1990 A1B B1 A2 MIROC HAD CSIRO

16. Change in Temperature Late 21st Century vs Late 20th Century CSIRO MK3.0 B1 Degrees F 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 >8 HADCM3 A2

17. Change in Precipitation Late 21st Century vs Late 20th Century CSIRO MK3.0 B1 Percent Change HADCM3 A2

18. Major Biome Boundaries Ecotones in Space – Ecotones in Time (Threshold, Tipping Point) Communities and Ecosystems: MacMillanRH Whittaker - New York, 1975 Water Limited Leaf Area Carrying Capacity All else follows!

19. Current Climate Thermal Zones MAPSS Simulations Boreal Temperate • Future Thermal Impacts • Longer Growing Season • Migration • Natives Invade Natives • Release of Frost Limitations • Loss of Alpine • Expansion of Subtropics • Great Basin Thresholds • Expansion of Tropics Subtropical Tropical GFDL Future Climate

20. MAPSS Simulated Leaf Area Index Limited by Site Water-Balance

21. MAPSS Simulated Vegetation Distribution Current Climate

22. Ecosystem VulnerabilitymeetsClimate Variability Vulnerability: Intrinsic Sensitivity to Water Stress!

23. Kenai Dieback Is This a Harbinger of Things to Come?

24. Vegetation and Fire Dynamics (MC1 Model) Savanna Structure Required Growth and Nutrient Cycling (CENTURY) Vegetation Distribution (MAPSS) FIRE (Surface, Crown, Rate of Spread) H2O, N Drought Responses Fire Risks Carbon Sequestration

25. Biomass Consumed, 1988 Disturbance Mediates Ecosystem Change MC-FIRE Simulation Yellowstone Fire Cornbelt Fires Biomass Consumed 1895-2100 2035 1988 Regime Shift Large, ‘Catastrophic’ Fires 1910 1930s Future Trend Historic Trend Increase in ‘Background Fire Severity High Warming Small Warming

26. 1988-89 1940-47 1972-77 Ocean-Climate Regime Shifts Source: OSTP

27. 1976 - 77 1988 - 89 1940s 1983 1998 El Niño Drought and Fire in the West (Simulated Fire, no Fire Suppression) Pacific Decadal Oscillation Meridional Zonal

28. Annual Fire Simulation (MC1) using Observed Climate Data (PRISM Gridded Observations) http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/corvallis/mdr/mapss/fireforecasts.htm PDO Negative *Note: Simulated and Observed Fire Area are each normalized as a percentage deviation from their respective means.

30. Observed Simulated Historical

31. Change in Vegetation Type Late 21st Century vs Late 20th Century Historical CSIRO MK3.0 B1 HADCM3 A2

32. Historical A2 A1B B1 MIROC3_MEDRES HADCM3 CSIRO_MK3

33. % Change in Biomass Consumed by Fire Late 21st Century vs Late 20th Century CSIRO MK3.0 B1 Percent Change HADCM3 A2

34. A2 A1B B1 MIROC3_MEDRES HADCM3 CSIRO_MK3 percent Percent Change Biomass consumed by Fire 2051-2100 vs. 1951-2000.

35. Difference Change in Biomass Consumed by Fire Late 21st Century vs Late 20th Century CSIRO MK3.0 B1 Change (gC/m2) HADCM3 A2

36. A2 A1B B1 MIROC3_MEDRES HADCM3 CSIRO_MK3 percent Percent Change in Vegetation Carbon 2070-2099 vs. 1961-1990.

37. Management Implications(personal musings) • Management Goals face an uncertain Future • The Future will NOT echo the Past • Instead,… Manage Change, per se • Desired function may supercede ‘Desired future condition’ • Near-term strategies – Maintain the Status Quo? • High-valued resources – forestall effects, protection • Desired ecosystems – intensive management to maintain • Long-term strategies – Improve resilience of ecosystems to rapid change, e.g. • Keep forest density below water-limited carrying capacity • Plant or Manage diversity rather than homogeneous monocultures • Do NOT Stovepipe Policy Formation – Fire, carbon and other policies may be at cross-purposes demanding creative management of change

38. Future ClimateManaging for Change with Uncertainty Current Assessments Bachelet,D., R.P.Neilson, J.M.Lenihan, and R.J.Drapek. 2001. Climate change effects on vegetation distribution and carbon budget in the U.S. Ecosystems 4:164-185. Bachelet, D., J. Lenihan, R. Drapek, and R. Neilson, In Press: VEMAP vs VINCERA: A DGVM 32 sensitivity to differences in climate scenarios. Global and Planetary Change. Lenihan, J.M., D. Bachelet, R.P. Neilson, and R. Drapek, In Press: Simulated response of 14 conterminous United States ecosystems to climate change at different levels of fire 15 suppression, CO2, and growth response to CO2. Global and Planetary Change.

39. ftp://ftp.fsl.orst.edu/pub/neilson/students/brendan-rogers/

40. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/global/jet.htm Hotter Expanding High Pressure Winds More Precipitation Migrating Forests

41. Zonal Flow Jetstreams blow west to east small north to south temperature contrasts a Summer pattern Source: Frank Gianassca, Weather Services Corp.

42. Meridional Flow – Resonant Rossby Waves Efficient Energy Dissipation Generally Winter Meridional flow often brings extreme weather Source: USA TODAY

43. Kimoto,M. and M.Ghil. 1993. Multiple Flow Regimes in the Northern Hemisphere Winter. Part I: Methodology and Hemispheric Regimes. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 50:2625-2644.

45. “… the increase of [Central Pacific] CP-El Nino under global warming becomes much stronger when we select the six GCMs that most realistically capture the occurrence … of CP-El Nino.” Zonal Meridional Will “…modify the tropics–extratropics teleconnection pattern…” Interdecadal shift from East Pacific to Central Pacific El Nino SST Anomalies 1870 – 2000

46. Ocean – Climate Regime Shifts 1976-77 1988-89 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Mantua and Hare 2002) North Atlantic Oscillation (Hurrell 1995) Arctic Oscillation (Thompson and Wallace 1998 )