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ECON 338C: Topics in Grain Marketing

Explore how government interventions in agriculture support farmers through programs like direct payments and countercyclical payments, manage risks, and ensure food security. Learn about the 2008 Farm Bill initiatives and how farmers receive financial aid in uncertain market conditions.

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ECON 338C: Topics in Grain Marketing

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  1. ECON 338C: Topics in Grain Marketing Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. Government Programs With a side trip through Tuesday’s USDA Reports Today’s Topic

  3. Government Intervention in Agriculture Supply Control Conservation Price Support Risk Management Trade Promotion Food Security

  4. Farm Bill Titles Commodities IX. Energy Conservation X. Hort. & Organic Ag. Trade XI. Livestock Nutrition XII. Crop Insurance Credit XIII. Commodity Futures Rural Development XIV. Miscellaneous Research XV. Trade & Taxes Forestry

  5. Farm Bill Projected Spending Projected Spending 2008-2013 $297 Billion

  6. The 2008 Farm Bill • Continues many of the same programs we have currently • Direct payments • Price countercyclical payments (CCPs) • Marketing loans • CRP, EQIP, and other conservation programs • Gives producers a choice on programs • Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) • Sets up new permanent disaster program • Supplemental Revenue Assistance Payments Program (SURE)

  7. Direct Payments Payments that provide income support to farmers “Fixed” – do not change with agricultural conditions “Decoupled” – do not change with individual decisions

  8. Direct Payment Base Payments are based on historical acreage and yields Payment rate is set by law Producers know the exact amount they will receive each year

  9. Direct Payment Rates

  10. Direct Payment Example Direct Payment = 83.3% * Payment Acreage * Direct Payment Yield * Direct Payment Rate $27.08 = 83.3% * 116.1 bu/ac * $0.28/bu

  11. Price Countercyclical Payments Payments that provide income support to farmers “Price Countercyclical” – payment rate changes with season average commodity price

  12. Countercyclical Payment Base Payments are based on historical acreage and yields Payment rate changes with price Producers do not know the exact amount they will receive each year

  13. Target Price Changes

  14. Loan Rate Changes

  15. Countercyclical Payment Rate Countercyclical Payment Rate = Max(0, Target Price – Direct Payment Rate – Max(National Loan Rate, National Season Average Price)) Target Price, Direct Payment Rate, and National Loan Rate are set by Congress

  16. Countercyclical Payment Rate Countercyclical Payment Rate = Max(0, Target Price – Direct Payment Rate – Max(National Loan Rate, National Season Average Price)) $0.29 = Max(0, $2.63 – $0.28 – Max($1.95, $2.06))

  17. Countercyclical Payment Example Countercyclical Payment = 83.3% * Payment Acreage * Countercyclical Payment Yield * Countercyclical Payment Rate $29.52 = 83.3% * 122.1 bu/ac * $0.29/bu

  18. Countercyclical Payments

  19. Risks in Agriculture • At planting time, agricultural producers face two major risks: • Yield uncertainty • Input application, crop insurance • Price uncertainty • Marketing strategies and tools

  20. Government Sponsored Risk Management Programs • Marketing Loan Program • Marketing Loan vs. Loan Deficiency Payments • Crop Insurance • Yield vs. Revenue Insurance

  21. Marketing Loan Program Government program meant to provide cash flow support during the marketing year Loans are nonrecourse, this means that the crop can be used as payment for the loan Available for over 20 commodities

  22. Loan Rate Changes

  23. Marketing Loans and LDPs The program sets rates at the county level by crop Eligible production may either be put under loan or have a loan deficiency payment (LDP) taken on it The amount of the loan or LDP depends on the quantity you wish to use in the program

  24. Marketing Loans and LDPs The program is based on the county in which you will store your crop, not the county in which you produce the crop There may be advantages to growing the crop in one county and storing in another

  25. Marketing Loans Loans are for 9 months, but can be redeemed at any time To pay back the loan, you may either forfeit the crop as payment or pay an amount set by the minimum of the posted county price (PCP) or the loan rate plus interest Possible to pay back the loan at less than face value

  26. Posted County Prices (PCP) Estimate of local market prices Usually based on 2 terminal markets, takes the higher price Terminal prices are adjusted for transportation costs and other factors

  27. PCP Calculation • Example: Story County, Iowa, Corn 11/10/05 PCP = $1.40

  28. Loan Deficiency Payments (LDP) Alternative to taking the loan Works like taking the loan and paying it back the same day Can not take the loan and LDP on the same quantity If the PCP is greater than the loan rate, then you can only take the loan

  29. LDP Calculation Example: Story County, Iowa, Corn 11/10/05

  30. Loan vs. LDP The loan is like a free put option at the loan rate The loan protects you against downside price movements, but costs you interest if prices exceed the loan rate The LDP exposes you to downside price movements, but there are no interest charges

  31. Loan vs. LDP

  32. Example Farm A 100 acre corn farm in Story County, Iowa Harvested 180 bushels per acre of corn (18,000 bushels) Based on market information for 11/10/05 and an expected basis of $-0.30

  33. LDP and Sell You could take the LDP today and sell on the cash market Return = Cash value of the crop + LDP amount today $34,920 = $26,820 + $8,100 = ($1.49/bu + $0.45/bu) * 18,000 bu

  34. LDP and Store You take the LDP today, store the crop until July, and sell on the cash market Return = Cash value of the crop in July + LDP amount today - Storage charges Most risky strategy of the three since you take on all price risk The other strategies limit downside price risk, but at a given cost

  35. Revenue Dist. of LDP and Store LDP and Sell

  36. Loan and Store • You take the marketing loan today and store the crop until July • Your return depends on prices in July • If prices are below the loan rate, forfeit the crop and keep the loan • Return = Loan value

  37. Loan and Store • If prices are above the loan rate, repay the loan and sell the crop • Return = Cash value of the crop - Interest charges - Storage charges • Less risky since the loan provides a revenue floor

  38. Revenue Dist. of Loan and Store LDP and Sell

  39. LDP, Store, and Hedge You take the LDP today, store the crop until July, hedge the cash value of the crop with the July futures contract, and sell on the cash market The hedge is constructed by selling the July futures contract today and buying it in June

  40. LDP, Store, and Hedge Return = Cash value of the crop in July + LDP amount today + Return from the hedge - Storage charges This is the least risky strategy since you are locking in a narrow range of values

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