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Predicting Childbearing Decisions: Probability & Speed of Progression

Discover how education, siblings, age at birth, and economy impact women's childbearing decisions, using data from Portuguese women. The study examines the number of children women have and when they give birth, revealing interesting trends and probabilities. Education influences delayed childbearing, while siblings play a role in the likelihood of having additional children. Younger cohorts tend to postpone childbearing and have fewer children. Economic factors, such as unemployment rate and childcare availability, do not significantly affect fertility timing. Mothers who were older at their last delivery are less likely to have another child but may decide sooner if they do. Explore the findings in this fascinating study and consider implications for future research.

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Predicting Childbearing Decisions: Probability & Speed of Progression

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  1. “Will I Ever?”:Estimating the Probability and Speed of Progression to the Consequent Childbirth Author: Márton Varga 27/01/2012

  2. Can we predict their childbearing decisions?

  3. QUESTIONS DATA and METHODOLOGY • How many children will women have? • When do they give birth? • Main source: Fertility and Family Survey • Sample: 5484 Portuguese women (1947-79) • Technique: Split-population survival estimation

  4. Education MAIN RESULTS Siblings • Education leads to delayed childbearing and a longer interval between the second and third birth. University graduates are more likely to have the third child. • More siblings are associated with a higher probability of having the second child. • Younger cohorts are more likely to postpone childbearing, to remain childless, and to have fewer children. Age at birth Other Economy Cohort • Changes in the unemployment rate and childcare availability do not influence fertility timing. • Mothers, who were older at their last delivery, have a lower probability of the consequent birth, but they wait less if they decide to have another child. • 10% remain childless, 30 % stop at one child, while 70% stop at two children.

  5. MOTIVATION

  6. FIGURE 1. KAPLAN MEIER SURVIVAL ESTIMATES Note: Duration is measured from the age of 14 and from the 3rd quarter after the last birth.

  7. Important THE SPLIT-POPULATION MODEL

  8. Education Siblings Economy Cohort

  9. Education Siblings Age at birth Economy Cohort

  10. Education Siblings Age at birth Economy Cohort

  11. 70.4% stop at two children Probability of stop at two children 33.9% Probability of stop at two children 81.7% Probability of stop at two children 86.3%

  12. FINAL REMARKS • Results are robust • Results are plausible • Deserves more investigation

  13. Thank you for the attention!

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