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GSM: A European Success Story.

GSM: A European Success Story. Interaction between major players within National Systems of Innovation in a Nordic Perspective (and an Outsider Perspective on China) Syros seminar, 11 July 2008 Bent Dalum DRUID/IKE and Center for TeleInFrastructure Department of Business Studies

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GSM: A European Success Story.

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  1. GSM: A European Success Story. Interaction between major players within National Systems of Innovation in a Nordic Perspective (and an Outsider Perspective on China) Syros seminar, 11 July 2008 Bent Dalum DRUID/IKE and Center for TeleInFrastructure Department of Business Studies Aalborg University, Denmark bd@business.aau.dk - www.business.aau.dk/~bd Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum

  2. Technological life cycles – Mobile Technology. The “Nordic-EU track”: 1 Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum

  3. Wireless history – 0G (’landmobile’) • Major boost during WW2 • Boost of non-military applications after WW2 • The commercial fleets: maritime radiocommunications • ’Landmobile’: police, firefighters, transport companies (truck fleets, taxis etc.) • Major companies in landmobile: General Electric, Motorola (focused entirely of wireless technologies) • Danish Storno (founded 1947): No. 3 producer of equipment world wide 1960s and 1970s Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum

  4. Wireless history – 1G a US invention, but… • AT&T introduceed first mobile telephony system in 1946 in St. Louis. • Bell Labs scientist Ring invented the concept of cellular systems in 1947 • 1971 AT&T, RCA and Motorola filed proposals to use 800 MHz band for cellular systems • 1983 FCC granted first commercial cellular licenses • 1983 Ameritech launched first commercial cellular system in Chicago. Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum

  5. Wireless history – 1G the Nordic market became the ’lead user’ • NMT standardization began in 1970 among the Nordic PTOs. • NMT 450 MHz implemented in Sweden October 1980 and in Denmark, Finland and Norway in early 1981. Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum

  6. Wireless history – 1G (analogue) the various standards • NMT 450 from 1980 and 900 from appr. 1985 • 1993 NMT introduced in 36 countries • AMPS actually introduced in more countries (e.g Latin America) • But the penetration ratios in the Nordic countries significantly larger than anywhere else in the world. • TACS in the UK and C-450 in West Germany Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum

  7. Wireless history – 2G (digital) the various standards • GSM from 1992: an EU effort. NMT ’copied’ - as an institution - and enlarged to the entire EU. ETSI formed in 1988. • GSM: the world winner (Ericsson and Nokia). Operated in 103 countries already in 1996. • D-AMPS (Motorola and AT&T) and CDMA (Qualcomm) in the US. • PDC in Japan. Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum

  8. Wireless history – 2G a ’family’ of ETSI standards • GSM 900 and GSM 1800 (called DCS 1800) • DECT = cordless phones. Never a breakthrough in integration of GSM and DECT, although this will fulfill evident user needs. • TETRA: a ’public, but closed’ system for police, firefighters, ambulances etc. • ERMES: paging Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum

  9. Wireless history – 2.5G • GPRS: always on; makes WAP possible, higher transmission speed • EDGE: makes transmission in the 50-100 Kbit within reach • GRPS and EDGE are ’extensions’ of the existing GSM networks • EDGE is growing fast in the US GSM market Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum

  10. Wireless history – 3G not a world standard • IMT2000 a great ITU vision but did not succeed • ETSI decision in January 1998 on WCDMA = UMTS. The 3GPP group. • CDMA2000 Qualcomm. 3GPP2 • TD-SCDMA China? • 3,5G HSPA Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum

  11. WCDMA-HSPA Key Facts (GSA March 08) • 211 commercial WCDMA operators in 91 countries • WCDMA technology in use by over 72% of 293 commercial 3G operators • Over 179 million WCDMA subscribers (Q4 07); 6.9 million monthly growth in 2H 07 • Over 62% of commercial HSDPA operators support 3.6 Mbps peak or higher • Over 1.1 billion GSM & WCDMA-HSDPA subscribers in HSDPA-enabled networks Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum

  12. The present ‘Turbo 3G’ hype & 4G • 3.5G (‘Turbo 3G’) is being rolled-out massively world-wide • Turbo 3G = “The wireless Internet” or “wireles broadband”, i.e. after some 7-8 years 3G can finally deliver the hype-dreams from 1999/2000 • AT&T, Vodafone, Verizon and China Mobile gave a joint announcement of 4G = LTE of the WCDMA technology in early 2008. • Where is a 4G version of TD-SCDMA in this pattern? Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum

  13. Technological life cycles – Mobile Technology. The “Nordic-EU track”: 2 Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum

  14. China (1) • 3G not launched yet. Probably three versions: WCDMA, CDMA2000 and TD-CDMA • China Mobile: the largest wireless operator in the world measured by subscribers. Vodafone is the largest by revenue and a minority shareholder in China Mobile • Huawei has leapfrogged into the global “Premier League”. Recently No. 3 in wireless infrastructure, only surpassed by Ericsson and Nokia Siemens. ZTE also a strong player • Datang is the TD-SCDMA specialist, not Huawei and ZTE (?) Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum

  15. China (2) • Will the postponement of 3G potentially dampen the growth of such companies as Huawei and ZTE? • Will a 4G version of TD-SCDMA be compatible with WCDMA-LTE? • In short, the entire wireless world is discussing whether China will become a superpower in wireless: in consumption as well as in R&D and technology or ‘just’ a very big player? Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum

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