The DMAIC Lean Six Sigma Project and Team Tools Approach Analyze Phase (Part 1)

1. The DMAIC Lean Six Sigma Project and Team Tools Approach Analyze Phase(Part 1)

2. Lean Six Sigma Black Belt Training! Analyze (Part 1) Agenda Welcome Back and Review Analyze Overview Data and Basic Statistics Understanding Variation Descriptive Statistics Distributions and Analysis Normality Applications / Lessons Learned / Conclusions Next Steps

3. Lean Six Sigma DMAIC Phase Objectives • Define… what needs to be improved and why • Measure…what is the current state/performance level and potential causes • Analyze…collect data and test to determine significant contributing causes • Improve…identify and implement improvements for the significant causes • Control…hold the gains of the improved process and monitor

4. What is Six Sigma? A high performance measure of excellence A metric for quality A business philosophy to improve customer satisfaction Focuses on processes and customers Delivers results that matter for all key stakeholders A tool for eliminating process variation Structured methodology to reduce defects Enables cultural change, it is transformational

5. Six Sigma Is a Set of Powerful Tools

6. Six Sigma applied effectively… Increases customer satisfaction Lowers costs Builds better leaders Empowers an organization to be more data-driven

7. The Basic Philosophy of Lean Six Sigma • All processes have variation and waste • All variation and waste has causes • Typically only a few causes are significant • To the degree that those causes can be understood they can be controlled • Designs must be robust to the effects of the remaining process variation • This is true for products, processes, information transfer, transactions, everything • Uncontrolled variation and waste is the enemy

8. The basic focus of Six Sigma The outputs (results) are a function of the inputs! Consistently meeting the needs of the customer is a function of how consistent /reliable the processes/inputs are that go into providing the service or product for the customer! KPOV = f(KPIVs) Y = f(Xs)

9. The basic focus of Six Sigma Therefore, to understand the output (results) we are getting, we must study and understand the process and inputs that go into producing the output we are getting. Y = f(Xs) …data-driven problem solving and continuous improvement

10. x x x x x x x Y=f(x) Process MappingParetoC&E Matrix, FishboneFMEASIPOC Capability StudyMeasurement Systems Analysis X's Measure Phase15-70 xs Pareto Chart, Correlation/Regression Hypothesis Tests, ANOVA, Descriptive Statistics, t-tests, Proportions Analyze Phase7-15 xs Prioritization Matrix, Improvement Ideas, C&E Matrix, Future State Map, PDSA Improve Phase 3-7 xs Control Plans, SOPs, SPC, Mistake Proofing Control Phase 3 or fewer xs Only the Critical Xs need to be monitored and controlled long term

11. 4σ 5σ 6σ 3σ 2σ 1σ Long-Term Yield vs Process Sigma 100% 3.4 DPMO 233 DPMO 6,210 DPMO Long-term Yield 66,807 DPMO 90% 80% 70% 308,537 DPMO 60% 50% 40% 30% 690,000 DPMO 20% 10% 0% 0 2 4 3 6 1 5 Process Sigma

12. Six Sigma AnalyzeIdentifying the Key Xs to Improve the Process

13. Six Sigma Analyze Phase “Make a habit of discussing a problem on the basis of the data and respecting the facts shown by them.” - Kaoru Ishikawa

14. Six Sigma DMAIC Projects Analyze Phase What does the process data reveal? What are the Critical Key Xs? How much variation in “Y” from the Key “Xs”? What “Xs” can be and need to be improved (Root Causes)?

15. Analyze Objectives (pg. 12-14) • Establish the capability of the process • Establish an improvement goal—the performance objective • Study the stability, shape, center, and spread of the process • Determine the vital Xs that impact the project Y • Make recommendations for the Improve phase • Analyze…collect data and test to determine significant contributing causes

16. Six Sigma AnalyzeThe Data-Driven Approach Process Analysis and Obvious Xs

17. Lean Six Sigma Project and Team Basic Tools

18. Lean Six Sigma Project and Team Basic Tools Process Flow Chart (pg. 33-44) A visual display of the key steps and flow of a process, also called a process map. Usually standard symbols are used to construct process flow charts. These include boxes (or rectangles) for specific steps, diamonds for decision points, ovals for defined starting and stopping points, and arrows to indicate flow. Processes can include providing a service, making or delivering products, information sharing, design, etc. – Should represent the current as-is state of the process!

19. Process Flow Chart Lean Six Sigma Project Selection A Gap Exists Define Potential Project Draft Problem Statement Identify the Metrics Determine the Outputs (Y) Two Or Fewer Outputs? Redefine Project Scope No Reconsider Project No Yes Meets Six Sigma Criteria? Charter and Launch Project Yes Quantify the Opportunity Calculate Benefits

20. Process AnalysisDetailed Analysis of Process Delays or Errors: Identifying process delays or potential errors is an important analyze phase activity. Going into greater detail in identifying the type and source of delay or error will help to more clearly define the root cause and thereby produce a more robust solution and overall improvement.

21. Analyze Roadmap: Process AnalysisTypes of Process Delays or Errors: Gaps Redundancies Implicit or unclear requirements Bottlenecks Hand-offs Conflicting objectives Common problem areas

22. Lean Six Sigma Project and Team Basic Tools

23. Six Sigma AnalyzeData and Basic Statistics: The Use of Data to Make Decisions With an Understanding of Variation

24. The Six Sigma Approach – DMAIC Projects Practical Problem Statistical Problem Statistical Solution Practical Solution Six Sigma applies statistical tools to practical problems. The key is data-driven projects and decision making. Improve toward near perfection – 3.4 Defects per Million Opportunities (3.4 DPMO)

25. Understanding Variation I abhor averages. I like the individual case. A man may have six meals one day and none the next, making an average of three meals per day, but that is not a good way to live. ~Louis D. Brandeis

26. "Teen use Turns Upward" % high school seniors who smoke daily 1992 17.3% 1993 19.0% Source: USA Today, June 21, 1994

27. "Teen use Turns Upward" % high school seniors who smoke daily 1984 18.8% 1985 19.6% 1986 18.7% 1987 18.6% 1988 18.1% 1989 18.9% 1990 19.2% 1991 18.2% 1992 17.3% 1993 19.0%

31. “Teen use Turns Upward”

32. “Bad News about Teen Smoking: Steady Decline In Teen Smoking Has Leveled Off, Study Finds” % high school seniors who smoke daily 2008 11.4% 2009 11.2% Source: CBSnews.com, June 9, 2010

33. Bad News: Decline Leveled off “Bad News about Teen Smoking: Steady Decline In Teen Smoking Has Leveled Off, Study Finds”

34. “Teen use Turns Upward” Bad News: Decline Leveled off

35. Understanding Variation 44.80 44.40 44.00 43.60 Actual Goal “Percent Excellent - Taste, Temperature, Variety” April 2004

36. Understanding Variation “Percent Excellent - Taste, Temperature, Variety” April 2004 100.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 Actual Goal

37. Understanding Variation All things vary. Probability allows us to determine if an event is common cause variation (random variation), or attributable to a specific cause or causes (special cause variation).

38. Understanding Variation (pg 118) Common cause variation: variation due to random shifts in factors that are always present in the process Special cause variation: variation above and beyond normal variation, arising from factors that are not always present in the process

39. Understanding Variation Managing special cause variation: Find a data point that probably represents special cause variation (a statistical outlier) Track the root cause Eliminate the root cause Should result in a more stable, predictable process and smaller variation Source: IHC Institute Advanced Training Program

40. Average TAT dropped by 10+ Minutes • Significant decrease in variability • Fewer STAT Orders • Not meeting 30 minute goal 25 Period: Jan - May 2005 20 15 10 5 Mean=54.42 Std Dev=52.36 N=102 0 0 3 6 9 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 4 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 2 5 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Time (Minutes) 10 Period: June - July 2005 8 6 4 Mean=43.91 Std Dev=17.75 N=24 2 0 0 3 6 9 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 4 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 2 5 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Time (Minutes)

41. Understanding Variation Managing common cause variation: The level of random variation is a physical attribute of the process. Therefore, in order to reduce common cause variation, you must develop a new processwith a new level of variationthat is superior to the old process Often, the new process is a variation of the old process DMAIC to change the process

42. Understanding Variation To achieve a new level of performance, examine and improve the process... Before After worse Quality better worse Quality better Source: IHC Institute Advanced Training Program

43. Improvement in Cycle Time – Right?Why do we want to plot data over time? Did we improve? 70 35 Provost, Lloyd. CHAI Fall Conference. Nashville, TN. Sep 2004

44. Example 1 Cycle Time Results for Examples 1, 2 and 3 Example 2 Example 3 Provost, Lloyd. CHAI Fall Conference. Nashville, TN. Sep 2004

45. Tampering Using special cause methods in an attempt to manage common cause (random) variation Tampering not only wastes time and effort, it also seriously harms process performance!

46. SATURDAY, JULY 7, 2001 “Shark attacks 8-year-old: Surgeons reattach shark victim's arm” An 8-year-old boy attacked by a shark Friday night at the Gulf Islands National Seashore was listed in critical condition Saturday after surgeons spent the night reattaching his right arm.

47. “Troubled Waters” Shark Kills Man, Leaves Woman in Critical Condition Sept. 4 — A shark ripped off a man's leg, killing him, and mauled his girlfriend, leaving her in critical condition, in an attack off North Carolina's Outer Banks that shocked doctors by its viciousness. Emergency vehicles patrol the beach along North Carolina's Outer Banks, where a man was killed and his girlfriend mauled in a shark attack. (ABCNEWS.com)

48. “Florida Tops Shark Attack List”Cynthia Mills,Discovery.com NewsJuly 21, 2000 — It's summer, and the sharks are biting…with a50 percent increase in attacks: six attacks already,up from four total last July[emphasis added].

49. “Va. to Probe 2 Fatal Shark Attacks” Wednesday, September 05 BOB LEWIS Associated Press Writer RICHMOND, Va. (AP) - Gov. Jim Gilmore created a task force of experts Wednesday to investigate the nation's two fatal shark attacks over the Labor Day weekend.

50. Variation • The power of statistical process control isDISCRIMINATION: • separates signal from noise • a tool to help us know when to act • a tool to help us know when NOT to act (tampering) Without understanding how much measurements vary naturally, it is impossible to understand the magnitude of the difference.