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Advancements in Meteorological Applications and Numerical Models for Accurate Weather Forecasting

This article explores the advancements in meteorological applications and numerical models that are leading to increasingly accurate weather forecasting. It discusses how actual observing systems provide high-resolution data and allow for the detection of high-impact weather events. The importance of nowcasting tools, convection-permitting models, ensembles, and short and medium-range ensemble systems for forecasting high-impact weather is emphasized. The role of forecasters in providing warnings and weather watches, adapting to new data and models, and collaborating in decision-making is also highlighted. The cooperation between National Meteorological Services and the private sector, as well as the collaboration with academia, is discussed. The article concludes by mentioning the need for ongoing research and development to improve weather forecasting capabilities for the general public.

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Advancements in Meteorological Applications and Numerical Models for Accurate Weather Forecasting

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  1. Meteorological applications and numerical models becoming increasingly accurate • Actual observing systems provide high resolution data in space and time • Allow to detect high impact weather • Nowcasting tools to forecast high impact weather well established and the most important component in the warning process • Research needed to replace “Warning on Detection” by “Warning on Forecast” • Convection permitting models and especially ensembles are a big step forward • Can give good indication of convective activity, heavy rain or high winds • But still not good enough for real warning operation • Short and medium range ensemble systems provide accurate and reliable forecasts • Early warning for winter storms, large scale flooding, extreme temperature events possible • The bulk of meteorological products can be created automatically WWOSC, August 2014, Montreal

  2. The role of the forecaster • No more product generation that could be created automatically without loss of quality • High impact weather remains the domain of the forecaster • Forecaster still in the loop for quite some time • Providing actual warnings and weather watches • Forecasters need to focus on where manual intervention is still needed • Forecasters need to constantly adapt to new data, applications and models (increased complexity, conceptual models, scientific understanding) • Technical system need to take care of final product generation and distribution • Forecasters work gets an additional focus • Providing advice (new products) • Supporting collaborative decision making(crisis mgmt., airports) WWOSC, August 2014, Montreal

  3. NMSs and the private sector • Let each partner do what they do best • Cooperate when it makes sense • Private sector can help to distribute warnings • But, don’t compromise official single voice! • Example: forecasts for renewable energy in Germany • DWD is optimizing its models including the usage of data from wind and solar parks • Met. Service providers optimize their power forecasts WWOSC, August 2014, Montreal

  4. Cooperation with academia • Germany established a (virtual) research network (Hans Ertel Center) to better link basic research and teaching with the needs of DWD • Focus onto the areas that are relevant to weather forecasting • Strengthening DWD’s subjects in the universities curricula • Establish permanent research groups in five priority research areas Research Themes: • Dynamics and Predictability • Data Assimilation • Model Development • Climate Monitoring & Diagnostics • Use of weather forecasting for the general public WWOSC, August 2014, Montreal

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