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AGRICULTURAL SECTOR TRENDS IN CEECs

ORGANISATION DE COOPÉRATION ET DE DEVELOPMENT ÉCONOMIQUES. ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT. AGRICULTURAL SECTOR TRENDS IN CEECs. Loek Boonekamp Head of the Trade and Markets Division OECD, Directorate for Agriculture. EastAgri conference Rome, 28 February, 2005.

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AGRICULTURAL SECTOR TRENDS IN CEECs

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  1. ORGANISATION DE COOPÉRATION ET DE DEVELOPMENT ÉCONOMIQUES ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT AGRICULTURAL SECTOR TRENDS IN CEECs Loek Boonekamp Head of the Trade and Markets Division OECD, Directorate for Agriculture EastAgri conference Rome, 28 February, 2005

  2. Macro-economic trends The context of agricultural world markets A focus on Ukraine Outline of the Presentation

  3. Macro-economic Trends • Robust GDP growth

  4. Robust GDP Growth

  5. Macro Economic Trends • Robust GDP growth • Inflation slowly controled

  6. Inflation slowly under control

  7. Macro Economic Trends • Robust GDP growth • Inflation slowly under control • External debt remains heavy….

  8. External debt remains heavy…

  9. Macro Economic Trends • Robust GDP growth • Inflation slowly under control • External debt remains heavy…. • ….Weighing down on investments

  10. ….Weighing down on investments

  11. Agricultural World Market Context: The Evolving Economic Environment • Increasing competition in world markets • Cereals from OECD • Renewed export subsidy use in EU (weak USD) • Meat, sugar, cotton, oilseeds from South America

  12. Growing Competition in Meat and Oilseed Export Markets

  13. Agricultural World Market Context: The Evolving Economic Environment • Increasing competition in world markets • Cereals from OECD • Meat, sugar, cotton, oilseeds from South America • Renewed export subsidy use in EU (weak USD) • Continued productivity growth in agriculture • Downward pressure continues on real commodity prices

  14. World Prices Remain Low in Real Terms

  15. Agricultural World Market Context: The Evolving Economic Environment • Changing consumer demand • Growing civil society voice • Changing market structures • Increasing globalisation • Shifting competition focus • Growing role of standards

  16. A Focus on Ukraine • The policy situation • Low support levels

  17. Support in Ukraine Generally Low…

  18. …Also Compared to Other CEECs

  19. A Focus on Ukraine • The policy situation • Low support levels • With big differences between commodities

  20. Big Differences in Levels of Support

  21. A Focus on Ukraine • The policy situation • Low support levels • With big differences between commodities • Most as budgetary support

  22. Most Support Given as Direct Payments

  23. A Focus on Ukraine • The policy situation • Low support levels • With big differences between commodities • Most as budgetary support • High tariffs despite low price support

  24. High Tariffs Despite Low MPS

  25. Lowering MFN Tariffs Does Not Affect Domestic Prices

  26. Some Concluding Remarks • Aggregate support levels are moderate • Substantial distortion for some commodities • No need for severe border measures • Substantial scope for Ukrainian tariff cuts under WTO accession • WTO membership would lay stronger foundations for ‘good’ agricultural policies… • ..and facilitate access to the global food value chain by Ukrainian farmers and food producers

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