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Future of the Labor Market

Future of the Labor Market. Presented by Workforce Insights, Research and Reporting Engine Division/WIR 2 ED July 23, 2019. Workforce Learning and Development. Future of the Labor Market. AGENDA Labor Market Trends Current Resources Available Future Resources Available.

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Future of the Labor Market

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  1. Future of the Labor Market Presented by Workforce Insights, Research and Reporting Engine Division/WIR2ED July 23, 2019 Workforce Learning and Development

  2. Future of the Labor Market AGENDA • Labor Market Trends • Current Resources Available • Future Resources Available Workforce Learning and Development

  3. Labor Market Trends Future of the Labor Market

  4. Future of the U.S. Labor Force to 2060 • Growth of the labor force is directly related to the growth of the population and changes in the labor force participation rate. • Significant part of the changes in labor force growth results from changes in the population • The labor force participation rate has declined substantially since its peak in 2000 • Demographic Reason • Economic Reason Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics : A look at the future of the U.S. Labor force to 2060 Future of the Labor Market

  5. Future of the U.S. Labor Force to 2060 continue… • Labor force participation rates are projected to decline Future of the Labor Market

  6. Labor Force Participation Rate Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) : US vs TN - May, 2009 and May, 2019 • Both the U.S. and the Tennessee rates have trended down over time, but the gap between the rates is narrowing. • Tennessee’s 61.8 percent rate is just 1.0 point below the national rate of 62.8. Future of the Labor Market

  7. Labor Market in TN – Academic Supply Projections (2016-2025) • Projected to award 79,299 degrees. • 11.5 % increase in statewide degree production compared to 2016. • Credential production is expected to increase across all sectors, except at proprietary institutions; a 6.1% decrease is projected. • More associate and bachelor’s degree will be awarded. Most substantial growth (22.1%) will be in associate degrees. Future of the Labor Market

  8. Occupational Demand Projections (2016-2026) Future of the Labor Market

  9. Demand for STEM Occupations in TN Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics Categories of STEM occupations: • Management; Architecture and Engineering; Computer and Mathematical; Education, Training, and Library; Life, Physical, and Social Science; Sales and Related • 138,100 STEM employees in 2016. • Will increase to 167,950 STEM employees in 2026. • New STEM jobs are expected to grow by 21.6 % from 2016 to 2026, while the growth rate for all jobs is expected to be 11.4%. • Majority STEM jobs will be in the ‘Computer and Mathematical’ and ‘Architecture and Engineering’ categories. • Three computer occupations are in the top 5 STEM occupations expected to have the most openings through 2026. • Median salary in STEM occupations, $70,849, is more than twice the median salary for all occupations ($34,895). • Top knowledge categories include technical and interpersonal or soft skills: Computers and Electronics, Engineering and Technology, Customer and Personal service, Mathematics, and English language. Future of the Labor Market

  10. Industry Trends for TN • In the Long Term (2016-2026) • Total employment is expected to increase to 3,531,210 or an average 1.1% per year • By 2026, the largest industries are expected to be: • Health Care and Social Assistance (479,780 employees) • Manufacturing (348,445) • Accommodation and Food Services (311,185 employees) • Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services (274,450 employees) • Educational Services (272,190 employees) • In the Short Term (2018-2020) • Expected to be slightly faster, at 1. 6 percent • Manufacturing is expected to grow about twice as fast as in the long term • Food Services, Health care and Social Assistance, Professional and Technical services, and Construction industries are expected to be in the top five for new jobs creation Future of the Labor Market

  11. Industries (detailed) in TN Industries in TN through 2026 are expected to be: Future of the Labor Market

  12. TN Local Workforce Development Area (LWDA) - Growth Projections On the basis of Base and Projected employment for each of the 9 LWDAs from 2016-2026: • Expected to add the most new jobs • Northern Middle (187,140) • East Tennessee (63,270) • Greater Memphis (51,210) • Expected to grow the most rapidly • Northern Middle(1.72% annually) • Southern Middle (1.56% annually) • Southeast (1.23% annually) Future of the Labor Market

  13. Most Rapidly Growing Industries to 2026 in 3 LWDAs • The most rapidly growing industries with greater than 1,000 employment in three LWDAs: Future of the Labor Market

  14. Declining Industries in a Booming Region Northern Middle Declining industries in : • Manufacturing: • Architectural and structural metals manufacturing -5% • Printing and related support activities -2.3% • Glass and glass produce manufacturing -2.1% • Tobacco -1.4% • Retail Trade: • Office supplies, stationery, and gift stores -6.1% • Florists -4.8% • Specialty food stores -4.2% • Furniture stores -3.6% • Jewelry, luggage, and leather goods -3.1% • Bookstores and music stores -3.0% • Information: • Newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing -2.0% • Wired Telecommunication Carriers -1.9% • Transportation: • Taxi and Limousine Service -5.6% • Rail Transportation -1.9% Future of the Labor Market

  15. Gig Economy • There is no official definition of the ‘gig economy’. According to one definition, it is "a labor market characterised by the prevalence of short-term contracts or freelance work, as opposed to permanent jobs". • Definitions are based on : • Work Arrangement: Contract or relationship between workers and the individual or company who pays them. • Legal classification: the difference between employees and independent contractors. Receives 1099 forms when they perform services for a company without being a direct employee. • Nature of work: on what people actually do on a day-to-day basis. • Growth of the gig economy is a global trend and this trend does not show signs of slowing. • Parts of the Gig Economy : Technology Platform Companies (Uber, Lyft, Airbnb, Etsy, etc.), Gig Workers (Dog walkers, Baby sitters, etc.) and Consumers. • Under the broadest measure of contingency, there were 5.9 million contingent workers; • Gig workers who did not expect their jobs to last accounted for 3.8% of total employment as reported by BLS in May 2017 data. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Contingent and Alternative Employment Arrangements Summary Future of the Labor Market

  16. Workers in Gig Economy Source: www.gigeconomydata.org Future of the Labor Market

  17. Current Resources Available Future of the Labor Market

  18. Jobs4TN.gov Future of the Labor Market

  19. Staffing Patterns in TN in 2016-2026 Future of the Labor Market

  20. Real-Time Occupational Supply and Demand Future of the Labor Market

  21. Labor Market Information For Your Local Area Future of the Labor Market

  22. Labor Market Information For Your Local Area Future of the Labor Market

  23. Jobs4TN on Mobile App Stores Future of the Labor Market

  24. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Mobile BLS Local Data Available on App Store Future of the Labor Market

  25. Future Resources Available Future of the Labor Market

  26. Scenarios Future of the Labor Market

  27. Additional resources available on https://www.tn.gov/workforce Workforce Learning and Development

  28. Contact us: wired.info@tn.gov 615-741-2284 Workforce Learning and Development

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