260 likes | 269 Views
澳大利亚 – 中国: 新经济中的经济和商业机遇. Stanley Roche, Senior Adviser – Financial Services, Australian Trade & Investment Commission. 澳大利亚贸易投资委员会 – 我们是谁?.
E N D
澳大利亚–中国:新经济中的经济和商业机遇 Stanley Roche, Senior Adviser – Financial Services, Australian Trade & Investment Commission
澳大利亚贸易投资委员会 – 我们是谁? The Australian Trade and Investment Commission – Austrade – contributes to Australia's economic prosperity by helping Australian businesses, education institutions, tourism operators, governments and citizens as they: • develop international markets • win productive foreign direct investment • promote international education • strengthen Australia's tourism industry • seek consular and passport services in certain locations overseas.
我们做什么? • Austrade helps companies around the world to identify and take up investment opportunities in Australia as well as source Australian goods and services
国际买家服务 Austrade assists international buyers to source goods and services or identify strategic business partners Our assistance includes: • helping international buyers identify and contact Australian suppliers • providing information about Australian capabilities.
实现您和合作伙伴的对接 • Our staff are ready and willing to listen – to understand your needs and help you achieve your business goals • Staff include country nationals who are fluent in the local language and: • have worked in the market • know the people and have valuable contacts • know how business is conducted in their local market and Australia.
澳大利亚供应商数据库 • Austrade maintains an online database of more than 10,000 export-ready Australian companies across a range of industries • All companies are qualified by Austrade so are capable of exporting high-quality, innovative products and services
国际投资者服务 Working in partnership with Australian state and territory governments, Austrade provides international investors with the information needed to establish or expand a business in Australia Services for international investors include: • initial coordination of investment enquiries and assistance • information on the Australian business and regulatory environment • market intelligence and investment opportunities • identification of suitable investment locations and partners in Australia • advice on Australian government programmes and approval processes.
中国的新经济 Rebalancing and optimising the economic structure and future opportunities for Australia An introduction to the Australian Trade and Investment Commission
中国新经济 中国经济重回曾经的重要性 • China’s return to global economic prominence is directly related to China’s “opening up” policy, which opened up the economy for market-driven activities. The Chinese economy is already the largest economy by PPP basis. • China is expected to contribute to 35.2% of the global growth in 2018, while U.S. and India are expected to contribute 17.9% and 8.6% respectively. Top 10 global economies by GDP Source: World Bank, Angus Maddison, World Economic Forum 2018, China AMC.
中国新经济 2018年中国经济弹性 • Despite recent headline news, Chinese GDP grew by 6.5% in Q3’2018, and remains on track for the targeted 6.5%YoY growth in 2018. • 2018 Q3 saw pressure on industrials and manufacturing sectors, while growth in services and agriculture remained resilient. • GDP contribution by the services sector exceeded 50% in 2015 and continues torise. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Report, Wind, National Bureau of Statistics of China, ChinaAMC.
中国新经济 国内消费支持GDP增长 • Consumption contributed to about 80% of China GDP while net exportsweighed. • Consumption growth slowed down from 10% in 2017 to 9% in September2018. • Growth in investments continued its gradual decline as China optimizes its economicstructure. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, ChinaAMC
中国新经济 财富效应驱动的国内消费 • Urban residents contributed to approximately 80% of China’sconsumption. • Chinese residents spent over 31.7 trillion RMB in 2017, which represented a 8.2% YoYgrowth. • GDP per capita in leading major Chinese cities are approaching that of Korea andJapan. Source: National Bureau of Statistics, World Bank, ChinaAMC.
中国新经济 中国3.0时代 Sectors benefiting from the new Chinese economy are intuitively associated with its long-term demographic profile and technologicaladvancement. Source: Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, ChinaAMC.
中国新经济 人口结构带来机会 • The Chinese population will continue to improve the quality of the society’s well being andlivelihood. • The Human Development Index (HDI) is a summary measure of average achievement in key dimensions of human development: a long and healthy life (health care), being knowledgeable (education), and having a decent standard of living(consumption). • It also provides China with a roadmap on focus for its future economicdevelopment. Source: UNDP Human Development Reports 2016, ChinaAMC
中国新经济 财富效应促进中国消费 • From 1995 to 2017, GDP per capita grew by almost 14 times, significant wealth generation prompted higherspending. • The 30-40 y.o. demographic is the fastest growing in China. This population has strong demands for education, housing, children, traveling, and other consumption-related goods andservices. • Referencing the U.S. market, consumption of durables will gradually transition towards services, and subsequently a significant demand forservices. Source: Industrial Securities, China AMC, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Harry Dent’s “DemographicCliff”.
中国新经济 人工智能:助力经济增长 • AI may add 0.8% to 1.4% to China’s annual GDP growth, and the AI industry in China is projected to grow to 1 trillion RMB by2030. • AI is estimated to boost Chinese GDP by 26%, replacing demographic dividend as the next driver of Chinese productivity. China has made AI a national strategy and aims to become the world leader inAI by 2030. • Development in the Chinese AI sector would benefit from government support, engineers dividend, vastinvestment, • easy access to massive available data, and market openness to new technologyadoption. • Investment opportunities in AI – ‘industry+’: Companies that will enjoy rapid growth in AI trend have the following features: (1) availability of user big data, (2) software and hardwareintegration. Source: McKinsey Global Institute (September 2018), China AMC, PwC, Bernstein, NBS, Haver, WorldBank.
中国新经济 五年计划 The Central Government’s Five Year Planning and 19th Congress report outlines the 7 strategic emerging industries by the StateCouncil: EnergySaving EnvironmentalProtection Biotech and Medicaltechnologies Newmaterials ICT & industrial upgrading Advancedmanufacturing New Energies & New EnergyVehicles An introduction to the Australian Trade and InvestmentCommission 18
中国新经济 行业现状一览 - 主要品牌(消费者)
中国新经济 行业现状一览 - 主要品牌(技术和工业)
中国新经济 教育 - “高需求、低门槛”
管理亚洲(中国)财富 价值数万亿的市场机会
管理亚洲(中国)的财富 细分市场 Source: China AMC, CaseyQuirk
管理亚洲(中国)财富 • 投资中国 - 融入全球股票市场 • 234ChinaA-sharestockshave beenincludedin major MSCIglobalindicesonAugust31st, 2018. • The MSCI initial inclusion in 2018 included 5% of about 230 Chinese large-cap A-share companies. This inclusion factor is proposed to increase to 20% in May and August 20191. Additionally, MSCI is also proposing to include 20% of Chinese mid-caps and ChiNext shares 2. ; $30 to $50 bn USD is expected to flow into the A-share market as a result of inclusions. Full inclusion would imply inflow of over $550bn. Source: ChinaAMC, Wind, MSCI,Citi. MSCI decision expected by February 28, 2019. MSCI decision expected by May 2019 Semi-Annual IndexReview. 24