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Climate change and severe weather Improving business resilience

Climate change and severe weather Improving business resilience. Becca Eastman/Alex Webb South West Climate Change Impacts Partnership. Presentation Outline. The Science of Climate Change: A brief overview 2. Future Climate Change and its Impact: What can the SW expect?

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Climate change and severe weather Improving business resilience

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  1. Climate change and severe weatherImproving business resilience Becca Eastman/Alex Webb South West Climate Change Impacts Partnership

  2. Presentation Outline • The Science of Climate Change: A brief overview 2. Future Climate Change and its Impact: What can the SWexpect? 3. The Business Case: Why climate change matters to business 4. Building Resilience: How can businesses prepare?

  3. The Science of Climate Change: A brief overview

  4. Climate = the average weather in a locality over a 30 year period Weather = what it is doing outside right now Weather vs. Climate

  5. Temperature Increase Hadley Centre/UEA

  6. Natural factors cannot explain recent warming 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 Observed Model simulation Temperature change ºC 1850 1900 1950 2000 Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and Research

  7. Recent warming can be simulated when manmade factors are included: 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 Observed Model simulation Temperature change ºC 1850 1900 1950 2000 Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and Research

  8. Some change is inevitable High emissions Medium-High Medium-Low Low emissions

  9. Mitigation reducing our emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), through energy efficiency and alternative forms of transport and energy Adaptation coping with the unavoidable impacts of climate change

  10. Future Climate Change and its Impact: What can the SW expect?

  11. Increased average summer temp. Increased Tourism Increased Heat stress Infrastructure risks Risks to biodiversity Heat related deaths Risk to Food Security But the temperature on the hottest day of the year could increase by up to 10ºC South-West England central estimate Medium emissions Same as the 2003 heat wave The change for the 2080s is very unlikely to be less than 2.1ºC and very unlikely to be more than 6.4ºC (Note: the difference between climate at 2000 and that of the last Ice Age was only 6°C). 11

  12. Decreased summer precipitation Reduced stream flow and water quality Increased drought Potential benefits for tourism Subsidence Serious water stress Decreased crop yields South West England central estimate Medium emissions For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than -49% or higher than +6% 12

  13. Increased winter precipitation Increased winter flooding Increased subsidence Risks to urban drainage Severe Transport disruption Risks of national Infrastructure South West central estimate Medium Emissions For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than +6% or higher than +54% 13

  14. Relative sea level rise 14

  15. More frequent and intense severe weather events Contribution to England & Wales winter precipitation from extreme 3-day events Met Office Hadley Centre

  16. Regional Adaptation Response • SWCCIP is a regional partnership funded by: • The South West Climate Change Impacts Partnership (SWCCIP) focuses on climate change impacts and adaptation. Our mission is: • To help the South West Region of England to adapt sustainably to the impacts of climate change

  17. Scoping study set out to: Describe climate change scenarios for the SW Identify the likely impacts Suggest actions needed to respond Warming to the Idea www.oursouthwest.com/climate

  18. The Business Case: Why climate change matters to business

  19. The SW is vulnerable to the existing climate Boscastle, 16th August, 2004: Flash Flooding • 58 properties were flooded, 4 business properties were demolished • 7 Helicopters airlifted 100 people • 29 out of the 31 Cornwall County Fire Brigade Stations were involved • Infrastructure damage = up to £2 million • Tourist centre out of action Photo by PamDurrant

  20. Gloucestershire floods 2007 • 573 Gloucestershire business properties directly affected (est. only 80% insured) • 350 000 without water for up to 17 days • 42 000 without power for 42 hours • 10 000 people trapped on M5 & railways • £14.3M - emergency repair & response costs for Gloucestershire businesses • Businesses out of action for months! • (Pitt Review, 2008) Slad Road, Stroud (Bernard Wakefield-Heath) http://www.bbc.co.uk/gloucestershire http://news.bbc.co.uk 23.7.07

  21. The Business Case: Insurance In the SW, a 2°C rise could increase annual insured flood losses by 19% - leading to a potential pricing increase of up to 16%. A 4°C rise could increase losses by 29% - leading to a potential pricing increase of up to 27%. ‘The Financial Risks of Climate Change’ (ABI, 2009) Key messages for businesses: • Climate adaptation is likely to become part of insurance criteria • Well prepared businesses could save money on premiums • Unprepared businesses may not secure insurance cover

  22. The Business Case: Reputation • Growing awareness • 69% cite flooding as one of the most common effects of climate change • Businesses need to show they care and are ahead of the game • Responsible business • - Reputation as employer • - Reputation to customers

  23. Challenges for business • Business continuity (12 days lost/year/company) • Flood / storm / subsidence damage to buildings • Disruption to infrastructure • Insurance and Recovery costs • More need for summer cooling • Health and Safety implications: • - Increased travel risks • - Heat stress to staff and customers

  24. New market opportunities – goods and services Changing agricultural crops Longer tourist season Recreation and leisure opportunities Lower winter heating costs Opportunities for business

  25. Avoiding unexpected costs: • Business interruption • Damage costs • Increased insurance premiums • Future regulation, litigation or liabilities • Exploiting opportunities: • Expanding / new markets due to changing customer demands • Reputation, being a market leader

  26. Building Resilience: How can businesses prepare?

  27. Prepare to be Resilient All good businesses are flexible and have the ability to respond quickly to any circumstance whether it’s: • the recession • market changes • climate change

  28. “Changing Climate – Changing Business” DVD A short film featuring 11 tourism businesses in the SW who are taking action to adapt to climate change A full 20 minute version and a 6 minute summary version available at:www.swtourism.org.uk/our-strategic-work/sustainability-work/adapting-to-a-changing-climate/

  29. Flood Case Study: Old Mill Hotel, Bath • Temporary flood boards • ‘Tanked’ the underneath of the restaurant – i.e. sealed it • Management training • The laundry store was moved from the basement • Close contact is kept with the Environment Agency to monitor the risk • Catering facilities and staff are prepared - able to move a second kitchen and function room upstairs

  30. Drought Case Study: High Post Golf Club • Drought-resistant grasses • Water allocation process uses less water • Likelihood of disease reduced – less fungicide needed • Increased reputation – recognised as ‘on course for sustainability’ • Member support gained through open forum “Plan for future climate change and don’t be frightened to bang the drum and get some publicity for being pro-active – it’s usually free marketing!” Peter Hickling, High Post manager

  31. Adaptation = Risk Management

  32. Considering climate impacts on business areas • Markets • Logistics • Process • People • Premises • Finance Management responses Climate change provides both ‘challenge’ and ‘opportunity’

  33. Finance: implications for investment, insurance, reputation • Insurance issues: • increased or variable premiums; • vulnerable locations; • Liabilities • Costs: - retrofitting existing buildings and equipment could be expensive • Premises: impacts on construction, maintenance & facilities management • Building fabric, structure and grounds vulnerable to wind, rain, storm, subsidence • Internal environment: less winter heating/more summer cooling

  34. Preparing for flooding www.environment-agency.gov.uk

  35. Caravan and campsite flood risk management pack Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool ‘Changing Climate Changing Business’ DVD Online toolkit for tourism businesses www.climateprepared.com Case Studies – more available at: www.oursouthwest.com/climate/casestudies Tools to help businesses adapt

  36. Key Messages • Many businesses have not adapted to current weather variability • Opportunities as well as threats • Plan proactively • Climate change is a business risk like any other

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