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Planning for Terminal Area Vertical Takeoff and Landing (VTOL). Noah Karberg, CM and Tom Rafter, AAE Nantucket Memorial Airport. 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19. Outline. Introduction to VTOL & eVTOL Threat vs. Opportunity? Ground Transport or Aircraft Operator? ACK Interest
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Planning for Terminal Area Vertical Takeoff and Landing (VTOL) Noah Karberg, CM and Tom Rafter, AAE Nantucket Memorial Airport 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19
Outline • Introduction to VTOL & eVTOL • Threat vs. Opportunity? • Ground Transport or Aircraft Operator? • ACK Interest • Operating Concepts • Conclusions 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19
Introduction to VTOL – What? VTOL Extant: See Harrier eVTOL • In development (Boeing, Bell, Embraer) • Electric/hybrid • 100sm/5 PAX • Role of Autonomy 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19
Introduction to VTOL – When? Deployment? Depends who you ask… AOPA: “a long time” Aviation industry: 10+ years/Maybe 2030 Uber Elevate: 2023 in Dallas & Los Angeles Transcend Air: 2024 Boston - NYC Eviation: 2022 Forbes: $2B investment in 135 aircraft Morgan Stanley: $2.9T by 2040 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19
Introduction to VTOL – How? 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19
Introduction to VTOL – How? Traditional Disruptive • Aircraft certificate • Fleet purchase • Service announced • Airport FAM • Service start 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19
Is VTOL a Threat or Opportunity? Threats: • Technology deployed faster than FAR’s are developed • Anticipated deployment tactics: See Uber • Unmanned/Airspace integration • Catchment Leakage 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19
Is VTOL a Threat or Opportunity? Opportunity: • Now is the time to identify needs: concurrent with CIP • A solution to the Pilot Shortage? • Answer to unoccupied vehicle parking? • Catchment expansion 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19
Is VTOL a Threat or Opportunity? Ultimately a Strategic and Practical Determination • PAX Profile • O&D vs. Connecting • Space Constraints • Ground Transport Performance • Air Service Synergies 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19
IS VTOL a Ground Transport Provider or Aircraft Operator? • “Point to Point” Network Strategy • Initial policy positions: • Operate <500’ AGL • Expansion of existing TNC model • Originating vehicle fees are common at airports • Airports shut out/passive so far • Autonomy and AOA access vs. 1542 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19
IS VTOL a Ground Transport Provider or Aircraft Operator? • Fundamentally an aeronautical use. • UAS is growing up as a child of FAR • Even <500’ AGL, part of NAS • Eventual pushback (noise, aesthetics, landing) need FAR coverage to avoid local regulations • Grant Assurance protections • Part 161/Stage 3 compliance status 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19
IS VTOL a Ground Transport Provider or Aircraft Operator? A hybrid model remains a possibility: • Concurrent Air and Landside • Fence straddling operation • Certification requirements (Commercial Airports vs. Heliports) • Cost Centers and Rate Making 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19
ACK Interest and Opportunity Loss of Mainland Connectivity 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19
ACK Interest and Opportunity Loss of Mainland Connectivity 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19
ACK Interest and Opportunity • Declining revenue (Loss of 170,000 enplanements. • Reduced Impact (Sponsor approval of projects) • Loss of Community Benefit (1-2+ hr boat ride vs. 15 min flight) 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19
ACK Interest and Opportunity • Tourism/Historic District/Local ordinance • Time is Money • Too Big to Fail/Summer Finance? 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19
Concept: Landside Operation(Concession Development) Space Plan: Close-in parking • 21,780 ft2 • ≈ 10 hourly ops Revenue Structure: • Originating TNC fee • FMV Rent w/ MAG Approach: 1x operator Master Concession 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19
Concept: Landside Revenue TNC-type Fee: • MassPort: $3.25 origination fee • 33,600 arrivals, assumes: • 5 seats • 50% LF = $109,200/yr Rental Structure: • Fair Market Value: $4.26 per ft2 for 21,780 ft2 = $92,783/yr • + 10% handling fee on other operators MAG = $150,000 + $259,200: a 2.5% increase in ACK Total Revenue 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19
Concept: Airside Operation(Aeronautical Agreement) • Part 135 Commuter • Terminal tenant (non-sterile) • Signatory treatment • Commercial Enplaned PAX • PFC • Entitlement • Minimum Counter/office space 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19
Concept: Airside Revenue Landing Fee: $103,824 PAX Spend: $73,920 Business Rent/Fees: $33,780 PFC: $367,920 Entitlement: $218,400 =$797,844 (+ 9% increase to ACK Total Revenue) 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19
Concept Summary Landside: • Less revenue • Less impact Aeronautical: • More revenue • More congestion 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19
Conclusions • Many unknowns – that’s OK • General synergy – vehicle parking and small community air service • Early adopters stand to benefit • Long Term Threat: marginalize non and small hubs, unless • Regulatory Framework (perimeter rule/scope clause) • Require System Funding 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19
Conclusions 5. Conflict: Dominant mainline carriers protecting markets vs. a public getting tired of the traditional PAX experience 2019 NEC/AAAE Airports Conference 3/29/19