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The First Law of Petropolitics: Oil Price and Political Freedoms

Explore the relationship between the price of oil and the pace of political freedoms in petrostates. Discover how the concentration of wealth and power in the hands of a few affects democracy. Case studies on Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Alberta.

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The First Law of Petropolitics: Oil Price and Political Freedoms

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  1. The First Law of Petropolitics Thomas FriedmanForeign Policy, No. 154 (May - Jun., 2006), pp. 28-36

  2. The First Law of Petropolitics Thomas FriedmanForeign Policy, No. 154 (May - Jun., 2006), pp. 28-36

  3. First Law of Petropolitics: Price of Oil and pace of Political Freedoms move in opposite directions in oil rich Petrolist states

  4. Petrostates – broad definition • a small oil-rich country in which institutions are weak and wealth and power are concentrated in the hands of a few. (italics mine)www.dictionary.com/browse/petrostate • In fact can be big country – Russia, Iran… • Petrolist state – Friedman – • State dependent on oil production both for trade and GDP • Could be other mineral resourse instead • Large states with diverse economies, created prior to oil discovery are not such

  5. Places • Saudi Arabia, Russia, Angola, Nigeria, Iran, Venezuela,…

  6. Michael L. Ross • Using statistical analysis for 113 state between 1971 and 1997 demonstrated relationship for either oil or other mineral exports • More value of exports, less democratic https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksG-isNXyug

  7. Ross’s five Effects • Taxation effect – no taxation then no representation, no accountability • Spending – patronage spending rampant, less democratization • (Anti) - Group formation – buy off, prevent opposition • Repression – increase power of government controlled “police” & security agencies – choke democracy • (Anti) - Modernization – result less educated, articulate, critical, organized society

  8. Summing things up Professor of Political Science Gildred Professor of Latin American Studies William and Gretchen Kimball University Fellow Senior Research Scholar (by courtesty) of FSI/CDDRL Stanford University

  9. Class • Take each of 5 and consider them for Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, & Alberta

  10. Case studies

  11. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBxCZG_rgJQ

  12. Nikiforuk on the Albertan Petro State https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOAVrPsIMes

  13. This week in Venezuela

  14. Norway: Poster Child of Responsible Use of Resource Wealth

  15. Final thought: You get what you pay for or vice versa

  16. Quiz • What is the first law of Petropolitics? • Name two of the effects

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